There are two radically different scenarios to end quarantine: either now or two years from now.

Health Minister Aurelijus Veryga also spoke about the completion of the quarantine on Tuesday. He said that lawyers are currently being consulted about what restrictions would no longer be possible after the quarantine exemption.

“It just came to our attention then. We are now analyzing the time two more weeks before June 1, what will be the suggestions of specialists regarding the epidemiological situation. These are not political decisions, but decisions based on expert conclusions “said the prime minister. But on Wednesday, when the government decided not to further relax quarantine conditions, the prime minister spoke differently. According to S. Skvernel, the quarantine is likely to continue into the summer.

However, it is not clear exactly what criteria would indicate that quarantine can be lifted and the safety of the individuals mentioned by S. Skvernel can be guaranteed.

Expert opinions on this topic so far differ dramatically. Professor Saulius Čaplinskas, head of the Center for Communicable Diseases and AIDS, believes that we have already learned our lessons during the quarantine that lasts more than two months, the number of new diseases does not change radically, so the quarantine no longer makes sense.

Professor Vytautas Usonis, Doctor of Medical Sciences, also agrees that much has been done during the quarantine. However, according to him, Lithuania, like other countries, currently has no choice but to continue quarantining, because the vaccine has not been invented.

Remembered why quarantine was introduced

Quarantine was introduced throughout Lithuania on March 16. When asked if there were any specific epidemiological criteria to assess whether it could be discontinued, S. Čaplinskas suggested recalling the beginning.

“I would suggest starting from the beginning when I talked about who needs quarantine, why it was introduced by the Chinese, and what it means we must prepare for Covid-19. I said the Chinese gave us time, the Italians rushed in and said it was all over. It was meant to prepare. What does it mean to prepare? Immediately there was talk of not having a sudden increase in infections for which a medicine would not be prepared, of not being able to provide the help that is needed, which is available to all who need it.

This meant that medicine needed to regroup its forces and, in particular, strengthen infection control to prevent the virus from spreading in health centers. And, of course, diagnose as quickly as possible, because the basis of the fight against Covid-19 is to diagnose infected people as quickly as possible, to track down and isolate even their asymptomatic contacts as quickly as possible. It is desirable that this be done and most of it is tracked daily before they have time to infect anything else.

And, of course, explain to the public what the disease is and what measures must be taken to prevent it. One thing, if you have already experienced symptoms, stay home, see a doctor, observe the physical distance, wear medical masks, cleaning, hygiene, etc. they are necessary “, recalled the interlocutor.

He emphasized that it was for these reasons: situation management in the health system, adequate preparation for research and public education in all countries of the world, and quarantined.

“It remains to be seen if the country is ready and can return to a more normal life. Especially the health system, because all these other diseases have not gone anywhere,” said S. Čaplinskas.

I think it’s time to end the quarantine.

According to prof. S. Čaplinskas, remembering the beginning of the quarantine is important to be clear about what changes you are seeking to achieve and to be able to assess when this regime can be abandoned.

“I imagine a lot of people have forgotten and are now thinking that we will be quarantined until we completely beat Covid-19. This is absurd. Now we are seeing, first of all, that the medical collapse has not taken place. Unfortunately, we continue to have cases of infection in medical facilities and collectives. This is completely understandable, since it is during close contact that a person becomes infected. According to biology, that should be the case, and the intimidation that he will go to the store and become infected, or that the streets must be disinfected, is highly dubious.

If you used a mask and hand hygiene in the store, even if you let an infected person pass, the chances of getting infected are very low. It stays unless it’s theoretical. It is logical that we should continue to focus on the collectives and on the education and interpretation of the people. And diagnose as soon as possible, so that the person can isolate and spread the infection as soon as possible, “explained the interlocutor.

According to him, all signs show that the fight against the virus can continue successfully even after quarantine is lifted, both health institutions and most Lithuanians have learned their lessons.

“Are we ready for that or not? I think we are ready. All the data shows that our behavior shows how people react, how they manage, how disciplined they behave. I mean mass. Naturally, there will be units that will not understand or get angry, “said the professor.

He also noted that there are certain objective epidemiological criteria that can be used to make that decision. This would require a comparison of the coronavirus data from the past week or two.

“The number of diagnosed cases per day of all identified infected people should not exceed 3%. But there is a” but. “There is a need for extensive research and, when necessary, contacts, etc. I immediately said that this Population study, by handing out coupons and inviting those who want to get tested, will not show an infection. That was the case. How much investigated? A few thousand and found only one? If we examine all people who experience symptoms that have been in contact and contact persons, there should be no more than 3 percent positive responses.

Overall, of all the people recently surveyed in Lithuania, it appears that we meet those criteria, ”said S. Čaplinskas.

After clarifying whether this means that Lithuania is already ready to end the quarantine, the interviewee replied: “In my personal opinion, yes. Quarantine does not have to be the target. If quarantine has now become a target for some, it is very bad. I repeat the poster, quarantine is a temporary measure so that we all change to another railroad. I’m not saying bigger, but different so that we live differently. “

Prof. Usonis: complete quarantine can only be achieved after the vaccine has been invented

The teacher also agreed that a lot of work had been done during quarantine to control the infection. V. Usonis.

“Do you remember how optimistically we speak that we are all ready for emergencies? What happened? That our treatment facilities are ready. What happened? Remember how people reacted to the quarantine in March: everyone wore that nonsense, no one wore masks. We learned it, we all did it. We could mention many things: medical institutions have reorganized their work, all other public sector companies have reorganized their work so that we can increase security. There may be fewer tables in the restaurant, but it will and will work safely. Public events: Maybe they will, but maybe people at risk will see that event on TV, not live. We have to understand and accept that, ”said the doctor about the path that Lithuania has already taken.

However, he said, it is still too early to talk about lifting the quarantine.

“A complete quarantine removal would be if we had effective tools to control the infection. Such a measure is a vaccine. Epidemiologists have estimated that public immunity should reach 60-70 percent. levels to prevent the spread of Covid-19 infection.

Let’s calculate, if there are now around 1,500 people in Lithuania, multiply by some coefficient 10, how many we do not diagnose asymptomatic carriers, that there are 15 thousand. about 2.5 million of us. population. It means that this percentage is very small so far and our society still has no immunity, “V. Usonis calculated.

The professor recalled that public immunity can only be formed in two ways. The first is a natural disease that affects a large part of the population for several years. According to V. Usonis, this was the case 200 years ago, when there were no vaccines at all.

“Or we have to achieve that public immunity through other means: vaccines. Sure, that path is more effective, faster, but today there is no vaccine. Realistically, we should probably talk about a period of two years for vaccines to appear in medical offices. If this is the case, we will be able to control the infection by biological means, then our organizational and quarantine measures will no longer be necessary, “said the interlocutor.

When asked if this means that quarantine can be extended up to two years, V. Usonis replied:

“And how else? The classic of epidemiology is the sacred trinity: the source of infection, the routes of transmission, the vaccine.

In Lithuania, the source of infection is that at least a few new cases of infection are recorded every day in various geographical locations, in various groups. It means that the virus is circulating in our country. The virus circulates in Europe and the world, so we and any other country are talking about an imported source of infection. The virus is there, there is no vaccine. The central link remains: the propagation pathways. What can we do to limit those paths? And here is everything we have today: masks, disinfectants, contact restrictions, other quarantine measures. Of course, it is not good, it is not convenient, it causes us a lot of discomfort, but do we have to choose?