There are two possible scenarios for fall and winter: avoiding vaccination threatens new quarantine measures



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“I am concerned about the skepticism of the public about vaccines. I suppose that the public is partly skeptical about vaccination, according to the vaccination rate of the elderly population,” said A. Izgorodin.

The economist is pleased with the best vaccination rates for seniors.

“If we look at the latest statistics on vaccination of the elderly, it is already more positive than negative. It is gratifying, especially the fact that some segments of the elderly have almost achieved mass immunity.

For example, if we look at the population aged 65 to 69, 67% have already been fully vaccinated. almost 69% of the population aged 70 to 74 years was vaccinated. population. We are happy to be very close to mass immunity in certain segments of the elderly, “said A. Izgorodin.

However, the interviewee pointed out that these figures could be much higher, given that older people have been vaccinated for half a year.

“They could be bigger if the state pays more attention to proactively communicating that the benefits of vaccines outweigh the harms.” I agree that each vaccine has its pros and cons, and part of the population will feel some side effects for a short time, but this is not a massive phenomenon, ”said A. Izgorodin.

The economist is concerned that among the younger segment of the population, some people are skeptical about vaccination.

“The number of people vaccinated for the fall will increase considerably. Mass vaccination has only just begun and I think we will easily reach 50%. Vaccination rate in the younger population, but to reach 70%. It will not be easy in the older segment. young, because part of the population is skeptical, ”said A. Izgorodin.

Consideration and benefits for the population

In his opinion, first of all, in this situation, the State should invest in communication, also exploiting the potential of celebrities.

“You could also use the example of other countries. Suppose that in the UK, the stars who have a strong voice in society have been active enough to urge people to get vaccinated.” It is normal for people to listen to these people who are respected in society, and partly follow them, “Izgorodin said.

As a last resort, the economist would suggest considering economic incentives for the population to be vaccinated.

“It is a controversial thing, but if the state sees that in many segments of the population it does not reach 70%. vaccination rate, then more extreme measures can be taken and simply economically encouraging the population to get vaccinated.

Perhaps for part of the population, this will be a stronger argument that “yes, the state is funding it for me and I am helping to get vaccinated and make society more protected from the virus in the fall,” Izgorodin said.

Two scenarios are possible in the fall

According to the economist, two scenarios are possible in the fall.

“We have two economic life scenarios for the fall. The first scenario is good, that somehow we will achieve a sufficiently high vaccination rate in the fall, even though the virus comes with a new wave, but if we achieve a rate of mass vaccination, it will not be scary, the health system will not be overcrowded and there will be no strict quarantine.

But there is also a negative scenario that due to the skepticism of the population we will not be able to achieve mass immunity, and this is threatened by new quarantine measures, which no one expects, neither the population nor the companies ”, said A. Izgorodin .

The economist believes that people should be told more clearly what the consequences of their choices are.

“It just came to our attention then. These are two realistic scenarios: either we are vaccinated and we live a sufficiently free economic life with minimal restrictions, or we live with stricter restrictions in autumn and winter,” said A. Izgorodin.

Further advances are needed in vaccinating the elderly themselves

According to the Department of Statistics:

– 52.3% of the population aged 65 to 69 years were fully vaccinated. population;
– 70-79 m. There has been clear progress in the population segment since 2006, with almost 60% fully vaccinated. population;
– So far, only about 50% have been fully vaccinated in the population segment over 80 years old. population. Even more progress is needed here, the economist said.

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