[ad_1]
The mentality of Russian society, which has been formed over decades, is slowly changing: the West is the greatest enemy
According to Laurynas Kasčiūnas, chairman of the Seimas Defense and National Security Committee, the leader of the Russian opposition Alexei Navaln understood the rules of the game some time ago: “For most of Russian society, flying the American flag is becoming the greatest threat to national security. That society has thus been run by social engineering projects for decades. Navaln understood this, I think, so when he was invited to the European Parliament 5-7 years ago or earlier, it was not because he knew that any photo from there would make him a Western spy, although it did eventually convert him. in one anyway. “
Marius Laurinavičius, an expert at the Vilnius Institute of Political Analysis, agrees that the mentality of the country’s elite trained in Russia for years determines that nights are perceived as the main and eternal enemy: “All these theories still pose or are words. They really think the West wants to take away their natural resources. ”According to M. Laurinavičius, belief in conspiracy theories is very popular in Russia.
According to L. Kaščiūnas, some of A. Navalnas’ positions, regarding Crimea’s dependence on Russia, raise questions, but in a sense they are understandable: “I don’t really justify this place, to the marginal west. This allows it to go further beyond the broader strata, and in addition, Navaln has a strong anti-corruption line where he investigates and publishes stories of corruption, thus revealing the kleptocratic nature of the Putin regime. “
Laurynas Kasčiūnas
However, although Navalnas returned to Russia after the poisoning, not only the country’s metropolitan area but also regional residents protested against his arrest, L. Kasčiūnas does not believe that a critical mass of those who can join Navalnas has already appeared in society. Russian – sociological Polls have shown that 25% support the actions of the opposition leader. A small part of Russian society, although it does not exceed 50%, remains undecided.
News of Navaln’s hunger strike will reach Western leaders but not Russians
What will happen next in neighboring Russia? The president of the Seimas NSGK believes that the social contract with the public, which was initially established in Russia when it receives higher wages and freedom to do business but does not interfere in politics in return, no longer works, so the Putin regime plant. We’ll see that now. “
According to Laurinavičius, the attack announced by Navaln is likely to attract the attention of the West, but is unlikely to have a greater impact on Russia’s behavior: “I thought and thought that Navaln could have contributed more to the fight against the Putin regime. He cannot do anything from jail, “says the expert.
According to the interlocutor, A. Navaln’s hunger strike may sound like a strong message to the West and further increase the pressure on the regime in Russia, but there is another side to the coin: Putin’s regime has long been ignoring what the West thinks. .
Marius Laurinavičius
According to M. Laurinavičius, while Navalnas remains in prison, his importance as a phenomenon in Russia will only diminish. The way to influence Russia, says the expert, is, but it must be done en masse: permission to carry legs in the West should be lost away from some of the most important people in the regime. However, so far M. Laurinavičius does not see any political will in the West for such drastic decisions to be made.
The two most important messages of the Russian minister to the world
What do Mr Lavrov’s statements on relations with Europe mean? “It just came to our attention then. First of all, the saying that Russia no longer has anything to do with the EU, but works with individual states: here is the traditional politics of Moscow, an attempt to divide and rule through from national capitals, attracting them with various projects. ”Europe, including Hungary and Italy.
And another message from Lavrov to Europe about Russia’s closer relations with China, according to L. Kasčiūnas, was an attempt to make some European countries think: maybe we will have even more problems bringing Russia closer to China with sanctions? This, according to the president of the Seimas NSGK, carries additional risks, since over time countries in Europe may appear that initiate the lifting of sanctions against Russia. Also, the upcoming elections in Germany have a lot to change:
“I think the main reason we have sanctions against the Russian regime so far is Merkel’s leadership. We can criticize her for one thing or another, but in this place her leadership ensures those sanctions. There will be elections in Germany in September and we already know. that Merkel is retiring. It is not clear who will win the elections, what the coalition will be, and the big question here is whether the new German government will be the kind of leader to continue its policy of sanctions against Russia. “
M. Laurinavičius adds to L. Kaščiūnas’s ideas about the real meaning of the statement by the Russian Foreign Minister: “It was a signal not only for Europe or the West, but also for China that Russia is a useful and valuable partner. for them in the fight against the West. There will certainly be a new confrontation and Russia can be a very important partner here. “
Sergei Lavrov
According to M. Laurinavičius, Russia’s attempts to divide the EU continue for twenty years and, in the face of a pandemic, a new hybrid operation is being carried out: “targets”.
The world is on the right path to a conflict of civilizations: it is not understood how serious this can be
Currently, according to M. Laurinavičius, the world is moving in a clear direction of conflict: “This is a trajectory of the conflict of civilizations, which is becoming more and more evident between western liberal democracies and autocratic regimes that are becoming increasingly ever more united. That trajectory is becoming clearer and indeed a huge threat, but I think there is still a lack of understanding that it could even be a desperate showdown. “
In addition to the opposition between democracy and authoritarian regimes, adds L. Kasčiūnas, there is also a crossroads of technospheres: “Competitions for technology will become stronger. Here two technospheres are formed: the technosphere regulated by the West with the American leadership and the authoritarian China. Lithuania and the EU as a whole will have to choose which side of the technosphere we are on. And here there are more than words, we are talking about 5G connectivity, which will take our technological development to a new stage, will provide many new opportunities, but will also increase risk factors in terms of security “.
Meanwhile, according to Putin’s ratings, another geopolitical adventure or a broader escalation of the existing adventure could be devised, according to L. Kasčiūnas: “.
Finally, according to M. Laurinavičius, it is important to emphasize that Russia is not only a geopolitical actor: “Russia is also a mafia state, it significantly changes the landscape itself. In terms of Russia’s interests, it should always be borne in mind that these can be not only state interests, but also purely mobsters, sometimes the interests of a particular group. ” According to the interlocutor, even events in Donbass often involve very specific financial funds. mafia interests.
[ad_2]
