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The quarantine in Lithuania is valid until the beginning of March, but the government has decided to relax it in stages, starting with some businesses. The incidence of COVID-19 in Lithuania in a couple of months has fallen from more than 500 cases to 100,000 population in 14 days to just over 300 cases.
Lithuania experienced the largest coronavirus spike just before the New Year, when the number of new infections surpassed 3,000 a day. cases. The absolute record was 3,984 cases on December 29.
With the strictest quarantine possible, the number of new infections dropped daily in early February to 387 on February 8.
The danger of the virus remained
Last year, the first wave of COVID-19 in Lithuania started to subside as the weather warmed up and jumped again after the fall. Virologist Professor Saulius Čaplinskas points out that such behavior is common to all coronaviruses.
“This is the normal biology and behavior of the coronavirus. Do we forget that every year, during the cold time of the year, we run out of coughs, coughs, sneezes, we catch the flu, we catch colds, which range from 15 to 30 percent? they are caused by other strains of coronavirus, ”said S. Čaplinskas.
But COVID-19 is more dangerous than, say, the common flu, according to Chaplinsky, as it is eight times more contagious and ten times more deadly. In addition, the professor points out that it is not yet noticeable that the virus will begin to soften.
“The danger of the virus as a biological agent is not softer yet, on the contrary, it has found a new host, it is looking for ways to better adapt to it here.” It goes why it mutates and mutates in that direction so that as soon as it can leave as many of its offspring as possible, it can spread as quickly as possible. This is their danger and it will remain so, “predicted S. Čaplinskas.
In early February, it was confirmed that infection with the British strain COVID-19 had already been confirmed in Lithuania. In December, UK officials confirmed that the new COVID-19 strain could spread faster. It is estimated that the virus mutated by 70 percent. more contagious.
The vaccine is not a panacea
When the first shipment of COVID-19 vaccines arrived in Lithuania last year, many breathed easier. However, S. Čaplinskas cautions that the vaccine itself does not guarantee that Lithuania will be successful in preventing future outbreaks of the virus.
According to S. Čaplinskas, two tools help to overcome the pandemic: diagnosis, isolation, treatment of infected people and isolation from their contacts and the vaccine.
“If the vaccine is effective, like polio, smallpox, even measles, then the spread of the disease can be controlled or even eliminated.
It is now too optimistic a state of mind for this vaccine to be effective in eliminating or controlling the disease, if one imagines that it will already be possible to prevent the disease from spreading completely, to avoid further spread of cold weather, ”he said. said the professor.
Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda has set a goal of vaccinating 70 percent by mid-summer. population of the country. However, S. Čaplinskas does not believe that in the autumn such a part of the population will already have immunity.
“To build herd immunity, we need 70 percent. People should be vaccinated at that time instead of vaccinating 70 percent a year. People along with the sick. After all, some of them will no longer have immunity at that time. moment.
This is something that should not be misled here. However, I predict that even if we vaccinate many people before Mindauginiai, it would be unrealistic to imagine that more than 70% of the populations must be immune, ”said the virologist.
Also, according to Chaplinsky, scientists cannot guarantee that a person is no longer infected with the coronavirus even after the COVID-19 vaccine.
“It just came to our attention then. However, it is likely that a person who has become ill or vaccinated, if he becomes infected with the virus again, is likely to spread the virus much less, and perhaps not even infect other people. ”Said S. Čaplinskas.
Careless steps are the way to the third wave
Step by step The government is implementing a quarantine mitigation plan. In the near future, some non-food stores and beauty service providers may renew their activities. However, experts advising the government urge not to rush to release the belt, as an excessive relaxation of the quarantine could respond to the third wave of COVID-19.
“The decisions are made by the government, the experts only advise. The advice would be to do it carefully and in parts, and seeing the effect of those openings, do not rush to open everything. Because last week, where the openings took place, they were all over Lithuania and they weren’t thinking much, ”said Vaidotas Zemlys-Balevičius, member of the Advisory Board and data researcher at UAB Euromonitor International.
However, he is sure that the time has come to relax the quarantine, as the restrictions have a negative impact not only on business, but also on the emotional health of the Lithuanian population.
“It is a game between what we want to save, if we want to save lives and health, or psychological health and business. We have in mind that the situation has improved, we can free ourselves, we just have to do it in a measured way and with that in mind we can return to the third wave. So what measures are we taking to prevent this from happening? “the scientist rhetorically asked.
Here, too, the need to test different ways of mitigating quarantine stands out, evaluating what benefits or harm they cause.
“We in Lithuania have no data on who we manage to deal with, because there has always been speculation, let’s open that, that, close that, that. <...> When we don’t have a common understanding of where a lot is, then unnecessarily emotions arise and speculation arises where they don’t even have normal arguments about what the impact will be when something opens.
On the data side, that means you try, open up, collect data, and know what’s going on. But there are challenges in doing that, because it is difficult to organize the data processes, to do it from scratch, ”said V. Zemlys-Balevičius.
Offers to learn from the mistakes of the previous government
The government agreed that two quarantines would be applied in Lithuania: national and municipal. The latter means that certain mitigations would apply to municipalities where the incidence of COVID-19 is lower than in Lithuania as a whole.
“The traffic light principle is a normal idea that applies throughout the world. Germans live like this. There is talk everywhere that imposing restrictions on the whole country is not prudent, it must be done in parts. I think it makes more sense to apply the traffic light principle than to restrict the whole country. Now we see what the situation is. In one municipality there are less than 100 cases, in another – 800 ”, – considered V. Zemlys-Balevičius.
However, the government led by Saul Skvernelis seemed to have already jumped on this rake. The application of the traffic light principle to municipalities has led to an unprecedented number of cases.
“The traffic light scenario did not really work in the municipalities of the previous government. Because there the criteria were vaguely established, they were not made public. I don’t remember that there was any active work with him, there were no movement restrictions, there was no data on the situation in the municipalities, ”said the researcher.
Not to prohibit, but to allow, but to be sure
At the time, S. Čaplinskas emphasizes that the quarantine issue was raised incorrectly from the beginning. According to the professor, the question is not what to close or open, but how to make sure that what works works safely.
“It just came to our attention then. To do this, the quarantine must be kept strict until you understand what is through the disease and how to work safely. First of all, how to work safely for doctors, how to provide assistance to patients safely and then to the whole business, hotels, restaurants, tourism and all activities, ”said S. Čaplinskas.
Here, the virologist points out that it may be necessary to wait until autumn until the majority of the Lithuanian population has immunity. The quarantine, he said, cannot be continued for that long.
“To think wrongly now is to think what to change, what not to allow, what to open, what to close. That should not be the question. And the question is whether services can be provided safely. It doesn’t matter if it’s a hairdresser, a sport, a mountain skating or a walk in the woods, ”said the professor.
Following the tightening of the quarantine in Lithuania in mid-December, many stores in the country were closed, with the exception of food, sports and leisure facilities, restricted movement of people between municipalities and gatherings both at home and in places. public.
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