The second wave of COVID-19 in Europe: why another deadly flood?

Because the second wave is now even bigger than the first. Quarantines and various restrictions have returned, the economy has returned to normal.

The optimism of the summer has evaporated and been replaced by a sad realization that the release of the restrictions has likely contributed to thousands of deaths, and it won’t be long before the vaccines arrive.

It is estimated that in November alone, almost 105,000 people died from COVID-19 in 31 European countries. people – more than in April. In Italy, as many people die every day as when the whole world looked with horror at the situation in Bergamo.

As in spring, not only Italy, but also Belgium suffers. In Portugal, the situation is even worse. Norway, Ireland and Finland seem to be doing better, and danger bells ring the loudest in Eastern Europe, including Lithuania.

Many countries in the region have escaped the worst hits of the COVID-19 pandemic in the first wave, but are now setting dismal records for both infections and deaths. Overcrowding and hospitals.

In fact, the situation is improving, albeit very slowly, and winter will continue for a long time. How did the rich continent manage to escape the second wave of the coronavirus pandemic while successfully coping with the first?

He hastened to abolish the special measures

It was on April 14 that the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said what many feared: that the sacred European tradition, the summer holidays, which provide millions of tourism entrepreneurs with a basic income for the year, can have to be canceled.

But a week later, der Leyen spoke very differently. She told the Portuguese press: “I think we will find a sensible solution to rest. I’m optimistic about the summer break. “

Around the same time, the Commission announced its ‘path to openness’, proposing to national governments measures to revitalize social and economic life slowly and cautiously.

On paper, the plan seemed mature. It was proposed to gradually open schools and various shops, while activating the process of testing and searching for contacts, without, of course, abandoning the use of masks and distance.

However, the governments of many European countries have decided to spit out the recommendations and expect nothing. Southern countries began inviting Europeans on vacation in July to save millions of jobs, and quarantine restrictions disappeared one after another.

And the European Union itself has begun to ask member states to open borders within the Community, although at the same time it continues to prohibit foreign travelers from entering the bloc.

Southern countries began inviting Europeans on vacation in July to save millions of jobs, and quarantine restrictions disappeared one after another.

In July and August, for example, more than 4 million people arrived in Spain. people who had neither to test nor isolate.

Of course, there were still fewer tourists than usual, but these millions were certainly enough for the virus to continue to spread. Tourists also held private parties in villas on the Mediterranean coast, which meant escaping government-imposed restrictions.

Vacation spots have become incubators for the virus

Studies now show that such a decision was opened suddenly and triggered a second wave of pandemics in Europe.

In Belgium, for example, people returning from their holidays abroad have not been screened, too rigorously, or quarantined. Unsurprisingly, the exponential growth in COVID-19 cases began in September.

“Millions of Belgians have returned from critical points like Spain at the end of the summer. Mass tourism has become a hidden infection incubator outside the country, “said Emmanuel Andre, head of the Belgian COVID-19 task force.

Furthermore, the virus was brought by Belgians – and citizens of other countries – from the south for a mutated vacation. Emma Hodcroft, an epidemiologist at the University of Bern, identified an altered variant of the coronavirus that spread to Spain in late summer.

“This variant of the virus is to blame for 60 to 80 per cent. Of all second wave cases in the UK and 40 per cent. Cases in Switzerland,” said the researcher, adding that this means that tourists are they infected with the virus in Spain and took it home.

Another important factor is the misconception of many governments that faster opening of the country will help the economy to recover more quickly.

“Europeans wanted it all together. Even now, people in Europe are wondering which is better to protect: people or the economy, although that dilemma is fundamentally wrong,” says Devi Sridhar, professor at the University of Medicine School of Medicine. Edinburgh.

Economists estimate that the minimal progress made during the summer was simply swept away by the second wave. Now the EU economies together are likely to contract more than 7% this year.

By the end of October, von der Leyen had already admitted mistakes: “It is clear that the exit strategies and the lifting of restrictions have been taken too quickly.”

Political deductions

In fact, as early as mid-August, signs of a second wave of pandemics were observed in many European countries. There were still few new cases of COVID-19, but the increase in their number was concerning.

But in the Czech Republic, for example, politics has prevailed. Pavel Plevka, a virologist at Masaryk University in Brno, says that the contact-tracking system in the country is already overheating in August, with a third of coronavirus tests positive in October.

Danger? Of course. But life did not change throughout September and part of October: elections were held in the Czech Republic on October 3, and the rulers did not want to spoil the mood of the voters before the important vote. Talking about the new restrictions only started after the elections.

P.Smejkalas: I have friends who had to work nights to replace sick colleagues. They didn’t leave, they just worked and worked. They saw what they had never seen before.

Such a delay cost a lot. In the first wave, fewer than 500 people died from COVID-19 in the Czech Republic, but more than 8,000 people died in the last three months in a country with a population of less than 11 million. life of the infected coronavirus.

“I have friends who had to work nights to replace sick colleagues.

They didn’t leave, they just worked and worked. They have seen what they have not seen before, ”says Dr. Petras Smejkalas, Head of the Department of Infectious Diseases and Epidemiology at the Institute of Clinical and Experimental Medicine in Prague.

In Central and Eastern Europe, governments communicated often and vaguely with the public. This disorder, coupled with widespread misinformation, allowed people to relax and the virus to return in force.

“I am glad that we are less and less afraid of this virus, of this epidemic. You no longer have to be afraid. I advise everyone, especially the elderly, not to be afraid and go to the polls, “said Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawieckis before the presidential elections in July.

Today, Poland is being bathed in the second wave of the pandemic: hospitals already have few places. According to Aneta Afelt, an expert in health geography at the University of Warsaw, the Poles complied with the restrictions in the spring, but then the message sent by the government itself changed.

“Politicians have started saying that the virus has weakened, that the pandemic is over, that it may not exist at all. This has caused people to have doubts and a large crowd has emerged who do not believe in the origin and the danger of the virus ”, affirmed A.Afelt.

Many hospitals in the region avoided the so-called overheating in the spring, but now barely cope with the flow of patients.

For example, more than 2,000 patients are treated in Lithuanian hospitals. COVID-19 infected patients, accounting for nearly a quarter of all hospitalized people.

Just around the corner, and the third wave?

But maybe we understand it now? Now, probably, but let’s remember that the second wave has been sweeping for some time, and at first the governments of many European countries, including Lithuania, were in no rush to renew restrictions on public life.

Experts note that the closures were awkwardly announced and were milder than during the first wave. As a result, while people accounted for losses and psychological burdens, the restrictions are no longer as effective. Of course, due to the phenomenon of collective exhaustion, societies are no longer so compliant.

“There were some doubts about the new measures because we all knew what they would mean for society and the economy.

However, those doubts caused damage. After all, we are seeing the pandemic resume. It is clear that restrictions are still needed, only now the cost of treatment and death is very high, ”says Bruno Ciancio, head of the Disease Surveillance Unit at the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control.

D.Sridhar: I’m afraid we will pay for the Christmas holidays with new quarantines in January and February. The virus does not care that we celebrate Christmas.

By the way, the countries that resorted to the restrictions without expecting anything really won: Denmark, Finland, Iceland and Norway do not make a second wave, and Ireland has recorded fewer than 300 deaths from COVID-19 since September 1. That number is only 15 percent. of all deaths during the first wave.

However, experts fear that the third wave of coronavirus is already hiding around the corner in some European countries. This has to do with the desire of some governments to relax restrictions during the Christmas holidays.

Restrictions are being relaxed in the UK, for example, and shops are temporarily opening in Belgium to allow people to buy gifts. Some ski resorts are back in operation in the Alps, although they became COVID-19 smokestacks earlier this year.

“I am afraid that we will pay for the Christmas holidays with new quarantines in January and February. If people’s behavior does not fundamentally change, there will definitely be such quarantines. The virus does not care that we are celebrating Christmas,” says David Sharhar of the University from Edinburgh.