The scientist compared the first and second quarantines: he told us where we made the mistake

Now, the scientist attributes the alarming number of new coronavirus cases to measures introduced too late. According to V. Zemlis-Balevičius, we should have taken steps to stop the spread of the coronavirus much earlier than was done in August.

The data discrepancy is huge

Last week, the acting Minister of Health, Aurelijus Veryga, head of emergency operations at the state level, was satisfied that the situation with the incidence of the coronavirus in Lithuania had stabilized. However, on Sunday, the National Public Health Center (NVSC) reported a new record of up to 2,305 new coronavirus cases detected as originally reported in 7,650 samples.

“30% of positive research is not understood by the mind. According to revised data from the Department of Statistics, 10,518 tests were performed and there are 2,131 new positive tests. The percentage becomes more realistic, but it is still very high. Well, on the weekends it is always higher.

The natural question is why is the data so different? The problem is that the data for the current day can travel to the system for a couple of days. Because the NVSC gives a situation for a specific time and cannot be corrected later, your numbers will always be inaccurate. The Statistics Department constantly updates the data and publishes the full history, so the data for a particular day becomes accurate after a few days, when everything finally crashes. Why the data walks for days is a separate question. This is mainly related to the human factor. Discrepancies can be measured. If they do not exceed 10-20% during a day and everything stabilizes in a couple of days, it is possible to live with it ”, wrote V. Zemlys-Balevičius on the social network Facebook.

The mathematician has observed that there should be no such matches when handled properly with the data.

“When comparing the new positive tests and the new cases, it is interesting to look at the work of NVSC. On November 18 and November 20, there were fewer new cases than positive new tests, so the corresponding difference was carried over to the next day. Therefore, it can be assumed that the record has increased by about 100 cases today, “wrote V. Zemlys-Balevičius on Sunday.

The situation has worsened

Even despite discrepancies in certain data, the coronavirus morbidity situation in Lithuania has deteriorated.

“The slowdown in case growth starts to pick up again and we go back to the growth we had a week ago. Hopefully we will still see the effects of the quarantine and go back to a slowdown in growth, but the data does not provide any basis for such optimism.

What should be the dynamics of the quarantine indicators can be roughly evaluated by comparing the indicators of this quarantine with the indicators of the first quarantine.

Comparing the weekly increase in cases, the proportion of positive studies and Rt clearly show differences. In the case of the first quarantine, we see a steady decrease from the 7th quarantine. During the second quarantine, weekly growth and Rt decrease, but the proportion of positive studies increases. Rt begins to increase on day 10 of quarantine and weekly growth on day 13.

Such a comparison does not unequivocally show that the second quarantine is not working. This would require a deeper analysis, comparison of municipalities, other indicators, etc., but this is a serious sign that something is wrong. Unfortunately, the global epidemic management experience is unequivocal, if the introduction of quarantine is delayed, it must be more severe and last longer to have an impact. Why SAM (Ministry of Health) and the Government of the Republic of Lithuania (Government of the Republic of Lithuania) decided to ignore this experience remains an open question, ”wrote the researcher.

He reacted too late

So what could have caused the second quarantine to not work as the first did?

“The main difference between the two quarantines is the proportion of positive research which is now too high. I think we just don’t test everything so we don’t see the actual picture. Also, because the NVSC did not investigate all cases, there is no precise communication on which sites are at highest risk of infection.

So, in summary: during the second quarantine, we were not able to stop the spread effectively and therefore we reduced it, but not to a level such that the epidemic could be controlled ”, the Internet news portal Delphi said V. Zemlys-Balevičius.

After clarifying when it was necessary to introduce the quarantine so that the situation was not so bad, the researcher replied: “It should have been introduced when the proportion of positive tests exceeded 4 percent. Around October 23 “.

We remind you that the quarantine was introduced in Lithuania only on November 7, and the increase in new cases is also associated with the late weekend, when many people went to the graves, where they not only visited the dead, but also they met with family and living acquaintances.

V. Zemlys-Balevičius believes that the measures should have been taken even earlier, already in August, when the exponential growth of new cases was recorded.

“It just came to our notice then. The point is to keep track of where the chimneys are and take care of them. But normally this was never done.

In addition, it was necessary to look at individual municipalities, when the number of cases increased in Radviliškis, then in Raseiniai, and then spread across all municipalities.

He missed those specific measures in response to the eruptions. You always looked at the general situation and expected something that did not respond ”, the interlocutor was surprised.

Veryga: this week will be critical

Still, A. Veryga denies that the quarantine was introduced too late and in his own way explained the jump in new cases.

“We have mentioned many times why one or the other strategy was chosen, without quarantine, trying to deal with local measures. Unfortunately, it turned out that they did not work, not only in Lithuania, but also in other countries. This week will be critical when we can say what effect the quarantine that was applied has had, ”said A. Veryga.

When asked by the acting minister why the quarantine does not stop the spread of the virus and new cases are still being detected after a couple thousand a day, he replied that this is due to the incubation period of the virus.

“Some of those who are already infected do not feel any symptoms at first and do not know they are infected. What’s more, two-thirds of people with the virus, as a summer study showed, do not feel any symptoms and can spread the disease. It takes 2 weeks to see the peak of the spread of the virus. During that time, those who have already been infected with the virus become apparent. Another nuance, by restricting public life, working directly, people have returned to families and now we have a series of family fireplaces. The disease moved home, which could have caused an increase in cases in those 2 weeks, “said the acting minister.

In terms of morbidity – sixth

According to the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), Lithuania, a long-standing country with one of the lowest rates of newly diagnosed COVID-19, has suddenly become one of the countries hardest hit by the coronavirus in the European Union (EU). European Economic Area (EEA) and United Kingdom (UK).

According to the two-week morbidity index, as of November 23 we are the sixth in this group of countries, well ahead of the previous Spanish and even Czechs.

Currently, the two-week morbidity rate in Lithuania is 799.8 cases per 100,000 population, and the mortality rate is 6.4 cases. According to Acting Minister of Health A. Veryga, the fact that we have climbed so high in terms of morbidity is due to our intense movement and communication.

„[Tai lėmė] our intense movement and communication is the main reason. We moved a lot, we communicated a lot, we forgot about protection measures and the disease spread, “explained the acting minister.

The highest incidence is currently in Luxembourg (1,279 cases per 100,000 population), Austria (1,056.8 cases per 100,000 population), Croatia (894.7 cases per 100,000 population), Liechtenstein (844.2 cases per 100,000 population) inhabitants) and Poland (829.3 cases per 100 thousand inhabitants).

The Czech Republic has claimed the highest number of lives in the EU, EEA and UK groups in the last two weeks. Here, the mortality rate is 22 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. Belgium ranks second (20.1 cases per 100,000 inhabitants). They are followed by Bulgaria, 17.4 cases per 100 thousand inhabitants.

Half of all cases were registered within two weeks.

Daiva Razmuvienė, chief specialist of the NVSC’s Communicable Disease Management Division, pointed out at a press conference on Monday that of a total of 48,000, nearly half of the recorded coronavirus cases: 25,000. 448 cases have been registered in the last two weeks. Most of the cases have been recently registered in the Vilnius region. Kaunas remains in second place.

One in five patients, according to the epidemiologist, is over 50 years old. About 18 percent. the number of infected people was between 40 and 48 years old. About 16 percent. – 30-39 years.

It is observed that during these weeks of quarantine, the main vectors of the disease are people of working age, since they are mobile and travel to shops, meetings.

In the last two weeks, half of the deaths from coronavirus have been registered in Lithuania. In Lithuania, a total of 386 deaths were recorded. 200 of them, in the last two weeks.

The highest number of deaths occurs in the age group 80 to 89 years, 54 people died between the ages of 70 and 79 and the remaining deaths were younger.

Most of the deaths, according to the epidemiologist, were infected in treatment, nursing homes and the domestic environment.