The quarantine mitigation plan is becoming clear: what could change when and when?

Delphi remember that on Wednesday 100,000 population, the incidence of 414.9 cases was recorded in 14 days.

What would change and when?

The ministries propose allowing meetings between two households to reach fewer than 200 cases per 100,000. population in the last 14 days and when the proportion of positive tests is less than 10 percent.

Experts suggest allowing 2 household contacts only after switching to scenario B, when the morbidity rate is less than 100 cases, 100 thousand. population in 14 days, and the proportion of positive tests does not exceed 4 percent.

After reaching 150 cases, 100 thousand. Within the 14-day population, higher education and vocational training will be delivered remotely, but there will already be exceptions and periodic testing will be done.

After reaching 200 cases, 100 thousand. The primary education of the population within the 14-day limit is organized in person or mixed, ensuring the requirements and tests of Operations Managers, vaccinating teachers in order of priority.

Once the threshold of 150 cases had been reached, the training of gym students would be organized in a mixed or remote way, ensuring the requirements and tests of the Operations Manual.

When the limit of 200 cases is reached, preschool education would be compulsory for all, there is no guideline.

Upon reaching this indicator, attendance at preschool education institutions is compulsory for those children for whom municipal administrations have established compulsory preschool education.

200 cases 100 thousand. the population threshold would allow for renewal of practical driver training and driving tests, combined with renewal of driver training, ensuring the requirements of the operations manual and tests.

After entering Scenario B and thinking about meetings of people, cultural activities, sporting and leisure events, experts suggest discussing and evaluating the level of vaccination.

“A detailed discussion is needed after assessing the level of vaccination in society and the impact of the opening of educational institutions on the epidemiological situation,” the experts write.

The ministries propose allowing access to galleries, museums and other exhibition spaces after reaching the threshold of 200, ensuring grouping (2 people or family), operations manual requirements and personnel testing. Events are allowed when not getting out of the car.

Reaching the threshold of 150 would allow library reading rooms to function with clusters (2 people or family), operations manual requirements, and staff testing.

Trade and services would be liberalized only in scenario B

Delphi It has already announced that experts offer nonessential stores with a sales area that does not exceed 100 square meters. m, having a separate entrance from the outside and restricting the flow of buyers, the activity was allowed only after reaching 100 boxes per 100 thousand. population within the 14-day limit, ensuring an area requirement of at least 20 square meters. subway. or only one customer is served at a time.

Experts also suggest waiting and allowing services also only after reaching 100 cases per 100,000. population limit within 14 days.

The services would then be provided to a single recipient of the service or meeting the space requirements (20 square meters) and the requirements of the operations manager. Personnel would be tested.

Delphi recalls that the quarantine mitigation plan must be decided by the government on Wednesday.

The quarantine could be released in individual municipalities, but with movement restrictions.

Assessing the government’s plans to consider releasing traders from quarantine, Vaidotas Zemlys-Balevičius, a member of the Council of Health Experts and a data analyst, says that, in his opinion, it is not yet possible to rush to release activities in the whole country. .

“I do not agree, because in my opinion, the epidemiological situation is not yet so favorable as to think about opening businesses, activities that are risky enough. Our priority should be to open schools, not businesses. You must be consistent and follow your priorities “, Delphi said V. Zemlys-Balevičius.

According to him, the epidemiological situation in some municipalities is improving.

“The municipality of Rietavas has already entered scenario B. It has an indicator of 100,000. The population has fallen below 100 in 14 days. I think it is too early to open activities now and risk our slowdown,” said the analyst , but stressed that the final decisions are made by the government.

When asked if he would see quarantined releases in individual municipalities, V. Zemlys-Balevičius said it would make sense if the restriction of movement between municipalities were maintained.

“Liberalization in the municipalities would make a lot of sense, because if we do not eliminate the restrictions between municipalities, (…) it would allow us to collect more data before moving to other municipalities. We are launching it now, for example, in the municipality of Rietavas and within a week we will see the impact, if the situation there is improving or worsening and it would give us much more information ”, said the expert.

Releases must be controlled

V. Zemlys-Balevičius also highlighted the risk of a coronavirus strain.

“It can be handled when we have very small numbers and then we can manage to capture contacts. With the numbers that are in now, if we publish them, we run the risk that the variety will spread even faster, ”said the data analyst.

According to him, the release must be controlled, but this requires excellent data management, more studies of viral genome sequencing.

“I understand that it is difficult, the quarantine is tired, but if there was not a British variety, I would have spoken differently,” continued V. Zemlys-Balevičius.

“We haven’t settled down yet, we don’t see the real situation yet and that worries me. We have not finished processing the data yet, (…) we have to take the data from the laboratory and do a sequence count; the project has just started. When you don’t have information, you have to be more careful ”, added the expert.