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Head of the Center for Infectious Diseases and AIDS, virologist prof. According to Saulius Čaplinskas, it is already clear that this virus, like other cold viruses, is seasonal.
So, he noted, and quarantine measures can only help temporarily: “It can spread during the warm season, but more widely during the cold season. And in the southern and northern hemispheres, respectively, these periods differ.
However, quarantine will only slow down the spread of the virus, but quarantine alone will not eradicate the virus from society. When borders open and people start communicating, the virus can also come from other areas. So quarantine alone is not enough. “
After 28 days of restrictions, growth is back
According to the interlocutor, non-medical measures such as quarantine, distance and the use of masks are the first line tools, but by themselves they are not enough. Among other things, the specialist stressed that the diagnosis, treatment and information of patients and, if necessary, their isolation must be adequate.
“Now it is logical that with the easing of restrictions and the abolition of quarantine, based on the example of other countries, we can think that it is likely that after 28 days the spread can return to the same level and speed as before the quarantine . How fast that speed would last and how long it would last again depends on the behavior of society as a whole.
And if there will be such weather conditions, and they will be like this, when people spend more time indoors, if the behavior does not change, then we will go back up. This type of forecast is logical and similar to a wave of pandemics and will continue all the time. Warmer weather will come, then it should decrease drastically, but not disappear completely, ”explained S. Čaplinskas.
Isn’t the solution to stop life?
According to the professor, following this logic, measures other than long-term quarantine should be taken.
“It is necessary to go back to normal life as much as possible, just to differentiate it as much as possible, in terms of the same bars and not just them. There should be slightly different rules for being and communicating in them.
But we cannot live alone in isolation. Man is a social being, he needs social communication, especially for children. “We can’t screw them up, even though they can spread the virus, but maybe not as widely as adults with symptoms,” he said.
Gaps need to be corrected in the first quarantine
According to the interlocutor, if we understand that the disease is not going to disappear, the health system must be transformed and strengthened accordingly to have sufficient capacity for both. covidiniams patients, as well as all other people.
“Because now, in fact, planned health services are suffering from Covid. What to do next? We are not going to make fun of the virus, we have to accept it and be smart and strengthen what can bring the maximum benefits and minimize the damage. Time to start thinking about it. Measures to combat the disease must not cause more harm than the disease itself.
This required the first quarantine when its potential was not exhausted. It was necessary to enter a second quarantine to be able to do those tasks that were not done during the first quarantine. First of all, so as not to burn the health system ”, emphasized the virologist.
He noted that changes to the rules of self-isolation, at least for doctors, would help prevent the system from collapsing, so that isolation could be waived as soon as he came into contact with a patient or other attending colleague, but without symptoms. .
It can take up to 8 weeks
The portal tv3.lt recalls that the second quarantine was introduced in Lithuania on November 7 and is currently scheduled for November 29.
Still, the interim health minister, Aurelijus Veryga, said the government is planned to be quarantined for at least three weeks. However, he did not hide the fact that this time may be longer.
“Since there will be a moment of change of government, knowing that until things accelerate, decisions will have to be made very quickly, perhaps even a longer period will be proposed,” said the minister.
R. Veryga has noticed that for the moment he will have to arm himself with patience and get used to living in quarantine.
“How many times before have we and various experts commented that it does not take 3, but usually 6 or even 8 weeks, and sometimes more, for the situation to return to normal and return to normal after the quarantine has been announced “. He noticed.
The peak was forecast in November
The researchers calculated last week that, under the current quarantine conditions, the peak of the Covid-19 pandemic in Lithuania could be reached in the near future, that is, at the end of November. According to them, if the quarantine continues, new infections with Covid-19 should decrease later.
“Although the quarantine has begun, we still do not see all the expected drops. The scenarios predict that the peak will remain on November 27. If the quarantine measures are effective, then there will be a decrease from that peak “, – the forecasts were provided by the data management expert Dr. Vaidotas Žemlys-Balevičius.
1,680 new cases of COVID-19 were detected in the last day. This means that currently the total number of Covid-19 cases in Lithuania has reached the limit of 40,492 cases.
18 new deaths were also identified. Their number is 341. 10,008 people have already recovered from this virus.
Currently, there are 86,121 people in solitary confinement as of June 1. 494 import cases were registered.
More than 600 people have recovered from the virus every day. 11 people with coronavirus died from other causes.
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