The pandemic has unleashed dangerous processes: warns of an even greater threat to the West next year

The knowledge of the first vaccines, which reached European countries and the US, gave at least a little more hope to the global coronavirus in 2020. The pandemic, which easily put aside all other crises, scandals and international tensions , not only caught the attention of millions of people, but also overshadowed the very fact of how the phenomenon began and what the consequences were.

If at the beginning of the year it seemed that the actions of the president of the United States, Donald Trump, could lead to crises in the Middle East and Asia, if recurring trade conflicts between the United States and China could be expected, the corrections in Uhhan reversed all last year’s predictions.

And if the first wave predicted a more serious impact mainly in China, it was in the West where the infection spread much more and claimed more lives than in China, where 4.6 thousand people died, according to official figures. people.

What’s more, the impact on Western economies could be much stronger, more lasting and irreversible, with China gauging its global leadership role earlier than planned. So far, the United States has enjoyed this, continuing to suffer from coronavirus: More than 330,000 people in the United States have died from this infection. American.

Trump, who was criticized at the beginning of the pandemic for his irresponsible behavior, admitted that he had deliberately downplayed the coronavirus threat and therefore did not want to cause panic. However, his behavior only exacerbated the United States, which, even without reelecting Trump for a second term, remains more divided than ever. And all of this is the consequence of just one year, and experts have no doubt that China will benefit even more from the lessons of 2020 next year.

The end of western unity

The fact that Europe and the US have struggled to find common ground in recent years, and now it will not be easy to recover from a coronavirus, is now increasingly talked about by experts. And while in the spring, European Union leaders promised an ambitious recovery package and billions of euros, some of which have already reached and will reach EU members next year, the crisp unity of the Community, disagreements and the objective reality of a second wave so far.

For the time being, European and American hopes for recovery and resumption of dialogue are encouraged, unless the vaccination process begins and the US presidential elections end. However, the latter still divides Americans, as D. Trump, who lost in the US presidential election to Joe Biden, still formally maintains a drop of hope and breaks trust in the country’s democratic system. And this, according to experts, is also dangerous for transatlantic relations, which have faced many challenges in recent years.

“The inauguration of the new president will take place in January and it will be interesting to watch the process, as the current leader does not abandon the claims that he did not lose the elections and those strange thoughts that the situation may still turn in his favor. This is not a very rewarding factor, because the United States is a key NATO country, a very important partner of Lithuania and any political instability is not a welcome phenomenon, ”said Linas Kojala, director of the Center for Eastern European Studies, at the Delfi Theme fair.

And this is only the beginning of the problem, because if Europe did not hide its hopes of Biden’s victory in November and could expect more consensus next year, it is no secret that some differences between the United States and Europe are not only outdated but doomed. to dramatic decisions. And it may be related to China itself.

On the one hand, according to L. Kojala, the expectations that China will join the world economy will become another important partner and market, and the country will be seen somewhat differently this year.

“The United States agrees that China is a potential threat in many areas, from technology to value, and is looking for ways to limit that growth in China’s influence.” On the other hand, there is still no such consensus in European countries, as we heard this year, the head of EU diplomacy said that Europe likes to choose its own path, like in that Sinatra song. The question is, what can that path be? “Commented L. Kojala.

Will this still mean round-trip trafficking, with an emphasis on human rights abuses in China on the one hand, and ongoing trade on the other, as China is particularly important to countries like Germany, which accounts for half of all the EU trade? Will the EU take tougher measures and side with the US? According to the expert, this last path is difficult to expect from the EU, because the EU does not have a common foreign policy in many cases and is unlikely to have one in the coming years.

“If the Western world is not yet united on the most important geopolitical issues, it gives third countries an advantage to expand their influence,” said the head of RESC.

Beijing will overtake Washington

What does this mean for individual EU countries that have already experienced under their skin this year, as the coronavirus crisis has dramatically changed the attitudes of Europeans towards the United States and China? While the favor of the Americans in many EU countries has waned, it just grew in China.

The confirmation of such a warning became a symbol of a small incident in Italy. Near Vicenza, where US troops are deployed, an Italian raised the European Union flag near a tent in March this year and raised it and hoisted China. Manifestations of this behavior have increased in Italy and elsewhere since China launched its mask plumbing policy, sending aid kits to European states, giving the impression that Europeans care more about health than the EU.

Marius Laurinavičius, an expert at the Vilnius Institute for Political Analysis, is convinced that this is only the beginning. One of the first experts to speak about the threat posed by China warned that the Western confrontation with China was inevitable due to China’s actions, ambitions and aggression.

“Unfortunately, the pandemic is a tool that China continues to use to strengthen its power and influence in the world. A new study published a few days ago shows that a pandemic could turn China into the largest economy ahead of schedule, increasing further. China’s aggression: realizing its power, it began to act as it pleased, showing the world that everyone else would have to adapt, economic strengthening It will increase its aggression, and the West, although open, still does not understand those threats, “he said the expert.

A study by the Center for Economic and Business Research mentioned by him indicates that China should overtake the United States and become the most powerful economy in the world by 2028, five years earlier than projected so far.

And the consequences can be felt not only by the United States, but also by the entire transatlantic community, which is based on close cooperation with the most powerful state in the world.

Beijing is exploding wedges

According to M. Laurinavičius, the Chinese factor may become the cause of disagreements between the United States and, for example, Germany in the near future.

And while transatlantic relations, and especially mutual trust, can be expected to rebound in the coming years, the interests of the US and European countries hardest hit by coronavir may eventually diverge if the prospect of cooperation with a more powerful partner , China or an economically promising Russia, becomes more pragmatic.

For example, the Nord Stream 2 project between Russia and Germany continues to fuel disagreements with the US, but there are no signs that the Germans will succumb to US pressure. The same pressure could intensify for China next year. And Lithuania should pay attention to this too.

“We just realized that China was not as far away as it seemed to us. The threat from China may turn out to be greater than Russia’s in the long run, and all those threats when we talk about Russia come from China, but we don’t see them more often, because those countries use everything for intelligence and destructive operations. What China is doing in other countries in Lithuania, it is already doing or will, ”emphasized M. Laurinavičius.