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“I am probably not lying when I say that many members of the medical community look forward to past Christmas, when the numbers start to decline and when the influx of patients to treatment facilities begins to decline.
We see that more and more of our infrastructure is being allocated to patients with COVID-19, which means that it is becoming less common for patients with other diseases, with all the consequences that are later reflected in the number of deaths in our country ” , teleconferences. K. Stašaitis commented on Tuesday.
Eriko Ovcharenko / 15min nuotr./Kęstutis Stašaitis
According to data on Tuesday, 2,372 patients are currently being treated for COVID-19 in the country’s hospitals, 1,282 of them with oxygen and 111 with ventilation.
In the optimistic variant, the number of COVID-19 patients in hospitals will increase by 1,000 by mid-January, noted A. Džiugys.
“According to the best forecasts, there should be 3,300 patients in mid-January, when today we have 2,372, which means that in 1,000 weeks that number would increase,” he said.
“Consequently, there would be about 1,800 patients who would need oxygen masks and about 165 ventilators,” the modeler noted.
The director of Kaunas medicine and nursing clinics stated that the country’s medical institutions will be able to accept such a number of COVID-19 patients, but problems may arise due to staffing.
“Actually, the number of beds and oxygen points in hospitals, according to the projected number of patients, is sufficient. The problem would continue to be the staff and securing the work of mobile hospitals for medical staff, I think it would be a great challenge, ”said K. Stašaitis.
It is said that before, strict restrictions were needed
A. Džiugys also provided a forecast of the change in COVID-19 cases. If the public responsibly adhere to quarantine restrictions, the number of new infections should decline on a regular basis.
“By the end of January, we should have between 1,500 cases,” he said.
But if society pushes moderation by hand, the numbers will rise again.
“If compliance was insufficient and people did not communicate intensively between families during the period between holidays, we would have a peak of up to 2,500 daily infections again in mid-January,” said A. Džiugys.
Arno Strumila / 15min photo / Mindaugas Stankūnas
Whether these predictions will come true will depend on how the public adheres to the quarantine regime, said Professor Mindaugas Stankūnas from the Lithuanian University of Health Sciences.
We believe that an important part of society will adhere to the quarantine and will be successful.
“We believe that an important part of society will adhere to the quarantine and will be successful.” We anticipate that the number of cases will decrease, “he said.
But now the situation of COVID-19 in the country, according to the scientist, is “incredibly complicated.”
“We will see by our actions what we will do now, in a week, in two [rezultatus]. We have to think about whether a visit to the mall or another place is necessary, “urged M. Stankūnas.
Tighter quarantine restrictions, he said, were needed before: “We needed to tighten up yesterday and as long ago as possible. The Board of Experts had already raised the issue on December 1. “
There are too many people in the supermarkets.
And now society, according to M. Stankūnas, should not hope that the situation will improve much in two weeks, even if everyone behaves responsibly.
“If the number of cases falls from 3,000 to 2,000, the situation will not be good, it will be very bad. Even if the number falls from 2000 to 1000, the situation will remain complicated. We have to understand that Lithuania has a very large number, “said M. Stankūnas, adding that the easing of restrictions will have to be gradual.
A.Džiugys noted that residents are still in too much contact, especially in stores.
“It just came to our knowledge then. People, of course, were already buying less at grocery stores, less at work, spending more time at home, but generating more at grocery stores. The impression is such that if you can’t have fun or communicate anywhere else, then we’ll wake up in stores, “commented A. Džiugys based on Google mobility data.
On Tuesday, health experts also discussed the issue of vaccinating the population. President Simonas Krėpšta’s senior adviser said that certain groups in society would be vaccinated against COVID-19 first.
Sigismund Gedvila / 15-minute photo / Simonas Krėpšta
“The public needs to know very clearly whose turn it is and when they will come to get vaccinated. Those vaccinated, who are at higher risk of contracting COVID-19, treat patients first and at the same time vaccinate the most vulnerable groups, the elderly with comorbid diseases and people living in care centers, ”he said.
The list of people to be vaccinated may change
On Monday, Health Minister Arūnas Dulkys announced that in early January, Lithuania would reach 10,000 first. Dosage of the vaccine developed by BioNTech and Pfizer.
Aurelija Žvirblienė, a professor at the Vilnius University Center for Life Sciences, said that it is a new type of vaccine that has not been used in medicine until now.
“It is an RNA vaccine. That RNA molecule first enters our cell, where a viral protein is produced, and triggers an immune response, ”said the scientist.
When asked who will not be vaccinated and what side effects can occur to those who do, A. Žvirblienė replied that all of this will become clear after registering the vaccine. This will be written on the vaccine insert.
Photo by Luke April / 15 minutes / Aurelija Žvirblienė
“From what is now known about phase III clinical trials, children under the age of sixteen were not included. The design of the clinical trials was such that they involved adults. It is also not clear whether there were a sufficient number of people in those clinical trials, such as those with debits or other illnesses that belong to risk groups, ”said A.Žvirblienė.
If these people are named among those who should not be vaccinated, they will not be vaccinated.
In addition, according to A.Žvirblienė, it is still not clear whether it will be necessary to vaccinate COVID-19 and those who have contracted it: “We have to wait for official recommendations.”
The population is expected to be vaccinated within a year
According to Edita Sužiedėlienė, a professor at the Vilnius University Life Sciences Center, the majority of Lithuanian society should get vaccinated against COVID-19 next year. For herd immunity to develop, at least 70% must be vaccinated. populations.
“In this way, we imagine that it would be possible to implement a vaccination campaign during 2021, of course, taking into account the priority groups,” said E.Sužiedėlienė.
Presidency press conference:
According to the Department of Statistics, last day 1432 new cases of coronavirus were confirmed in Lithuania, 38 people died from COVID-19.
This is the highest number of deaths recorded per day since the start of the pandemic.
With the uncontrolled spread of COVID-19, the government has tightened quarantine restrictions, which will go into effect on Wednesday: without good reason, it will not be possible to leave your municipality, there will be no grocery store.
It is true that family members or two people who do not live together can walk in public.
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