The latest ratings show that the honeymoon is coming to an end; we are entering a new period.

This can also be seen in the dynamics of public opinion and the market research company Spinter tyrimai, commissioned by the Delfi news portal. The results of the latest survey, conducted from March 17 to 23, more clearly show a change in the evaluation of the government’s performance.

During the month, the proportion of people who evaluated the activities of the Government in a positive and quite positive way decreased by 4.3 percentage points, from 45.1%. in February at 40.8 percent. March. Respectively, the proportion of respondents who evaluated government activities negatively and fairly negatively increased by 6.7 percentage points, from 43.5 percent. in February at 50.2 percent. March. Those who did not know what to answer to this question were 11.4 percent in February and 9 percent in March.

Other changes recorded in the survey were 3.1 percent. within the margin of error.

He sees no preconditions for getting off the ball dry.

Lauras Bielinis, a professor at Vytautas Magnus University (Vytautas Magnus University), relates them to the control of the pandemic and the dissatisfaction and impatience that grows in society.

“Naturally, that dissatisfaction is directed at those in power, that is, Ingrida Šimonyte as head of the Government and the Union of the Fatherland as the main group of rulers in the Seimas,” said L. Bielinis.

The political scientist considered that this drop in ratings may not yet be final.

“If this wave of pandemics continues, and if diseases and disease management processes are difficult to manage, and we have many limitations, then people’s patience may really end. And the majority of the public will have a very negative opinion of it. Government, simply because the disease is not yet under control ”, commented L. Bielinis.

The professor sees no assumption that those in power, figuratively speaking, can come off this score dry.

“Looking at what is happening in Europe, in the world, what problems are happening, we are similar and we are not the worst. Societies in most countries are showing very radical impatience. There, and demonstrations, rebellions and glass breakage. Fortunately, we react calmly and all our impatience consists of a reduction, ”said L. Bielinis.

Changes per month within the margin of error

Match ratings varied within the month within the margin of error. The TS-LKD rating was 15.8 percent in March, 17.8 percent in February, support for the Lithuanian Peasant Green Union was 14.2 percent in March and 12.7 percent in February.

The rating of the liberal political forces in March and February was as follows: 8.6 percent of the Liberal Movement. and 9 percent. , Freedom Party – 6.6 percent. and 8.2 percent. Support for the Social Democrats was 5.8 percent in March and 4.5 percent in February.

The Labor Party supported the struggle by 5% and in February by 4%. respondents, the Polish electoral campaign of Lithuania, respectively – 2.6 percent. and 3.1%, the party Libertad y Justicia – 2%, respectively. and 3 percent. surveyed. In March, 6.6 percent. 17.5% of those surveyed would have chosen another party. – without voting, 15.3 percent. he had no opinion.

The trends are more eloquent

However, when trends are observed rather than month-long situations, the changes speak louder. As Mažvydas Jastramskis, Associate Professor at the University of International Relations and Political Science at Vilnius University pointed out, the situation in TS-LKD has returned to what it was after the elections (December).

“Even if it were possible to see certain characteristics of the honeymoon, I think it is coming to an end. On the other hand, the alternatives do not grow. For example, taking the liberal parties separately, this is not a change. But as a whole , both occupied 11 percent in September, now 15 percent, as the margins of error are lower for the smaller parties (around two percentage points), so perhaps the increase for the Liberals still persists.

The “peasants” are completely stable. Before the elections, in September, his rating was 14.1 percent, in March, 14.2 percent. There are no tectonic faults in the opposition. The Lithuanian Social Democratic Party has not yet recovered. Before the elections, they looked better than now. For them, the post-election losers tag probably still works, because in September their rating was 8.4 percent and in March, it was 5.8 percent, ”summarized M. Jastramskis.

Krim Šimonytė’s rating is falling

Although there are no changes that exceed the error among the people who were mentioned as the most suitable for the position of Prime Minister during the month, looking at the longer term, it can be seen that the rating of I. Šimonytė has dropped.

‘I. Šimonytė’s rating was 36.6 percent in December and 26.9 percent in March. I would say there was no major break with neither TS-LKD nor I. Šimonytė’s qualification to be someone who would suddenly lose confidence. But compared to the December data, we see what is natural for the ruling parties. The honeymoon is coming to an end, ”explained M. Jastramskis.

For those who tended to shake hands and ask what kind of honeymoon he was talking about, there were no big leaps in ratings from the conservatives or the prime minister, the political scientist explained that he could act differently.

“The previous government has been accused for several months. Now I see that we are entering a period where the current government is already starting to be blamed for various things, firstly related to quarantine restrictions,” Jastramski said.

Comparing I. Šimonytė, who manages the pandemic crisis, with Andrius Kubilius, who was dealing with the economic crisis, the political scientist noted that A. Kubilius had a very clear line: very clear fiscal and energy programs.

“It was very clear what exactly he was doing. With I. Šimonyte, I think there is a partial pull, at the beginning it is like one decision, at the end of the day it is like another. Such an aspect appears from the premiere of Butkevičius. In my opinion, right-wing voters don’t like that. We want firmness, clarity, what is the plan for the future ”, commented M. Jastramskis.

Conservatives can rest easy, but not for long

However, neither the Prime Minister’s or Government’s performance appraisal was dramatized by a speaker at VU TSPMI. The academic allowed himself to express, as he himself put it, the “heresy thought” that he did not believe that the government’s work was fundamental for people to move away from the TS-LKD and the liberal parties and flee towards the opposition.

He based it on the results of the latest poll, which shows the difference between the voters of TS-LKD and LVŽS.

“It differs in terms of the Soviet era, age, place of residence, attitudes towards LGBT people, Russia and political trust. Other than political trust, none of those things would be something that could be replaced by measures of quarantine. I don’t see why voters should suddenly redistribute, “Jastramskis said.

In his opinion, the “culture wars” for LGBT rights would not pose a particularly serious threat to the TS-LKD losing a significant part of the electorate.

“The current TS-LKD voter is statistically significantly more tolerant of LGBT people than the ‘peasant’ voter. That question is somewhat dangerous when it comes to cricket flank, but we have to understand that the TS-LKD voter has become more young. Now he is, on average, younger than the LVŽS voter. Which is very interesting, in 2016. it was different.

That is why I say that culture wars are unlikely to produce large redistributions among voters. Unless they can continue to highlight the contradictions between the government and the opposition, “Jastramskis said.

However, according to the interlocutor, the TS-LKD should not be completely relaxed either, as there is a risk that voters will redistribute to the right.

“The Liberal Movement, the Freedom Party, can be an alternative. It is not possible for conservatives to play at peace for too long,” said M. Jastramskis.

Market research and public opinion company Spinter tyrimai conducted a public opinion poll from March 17 to 23, 2021, commissioned by the DELFI news portal. The survey involved residents ages 18 to 75.

Combined survey method used: 50 percent. by telephone survey, 50 percent. The Internet. In the case of a face-to-face interview, the interview is conducted by a professional interviewer. Make a conversation with the interviewee according to the prepared questions, recording the answers in a questionnaire. In the online survey, the respondent is sent a link to the survey, which the respondent independently completes at a time that is convenient for them. The link is unique, that is, the questionnaire cannot be completed more than once.
The study surveyed 1,011 respondents. The distribution of study participants by sex, age and place of residence is proportional to the distribution of the population in Lithuania.

The error in the research results is 3.1 percent.