The latest poll showed Nausėda’s assessment: paving the way for a second term, but at what cost

As the news agencies show Delphi According to a survey conducted by the market research and public opinion company Spinter tyrimai from May 18 to 28, 58.9 percent of President G. Nausėda evaluates the work of President G. Nausėda positively and quite positively, and 35.7 percent. 5.4% of the respondents did not know or did not answer the question. surveyed.

Spinter’s research highlighted that President G. Nausėda’s work is most appreciated by middle-aged and older, middle-educated, middle- and low-income residents, district centers, and rural residents.

The survey was conducted from May 18 to 28, that is, after the first Family Defense March, where G. Nausėda greeted the families. At that time, a dispute had already started between the Conservatives and the presidency over Lithuania’s representation in the European Council (EVS).

Midway through the survey, a Ryanair plane flying from Athens to Vilnius forcibly landed in Minsk on May 23. The Belarusian issue and crisis management has become the epicenter of political life.

Active in foreign policy

Kęstutis Girnius, a political scientist at the Vilnius University Institute of International Relations and Political Science (VU TSPMI), noted that the president has been clearly visible lately.

“He is clearly leading given Lithuania’s response to Belarus, and he travels abroad a lot. Recently, foreign policy has become a bit more important. Lithuania, as a supporter of Belarus (civil society), is receiving more attention from the world, and this is reflected in the president’s qualifications ”, believes K. Girnius.

According to the political scientist, attempts by some conservatives to downplay the contribution of the head of state are more damaging for them than for the president.

“It just came to our notice then. It should be remembered that even Gentville said he did not support their demands for a European Council (EVS). <…>. This shows a lack of seriousness, “said K. Girnius.

According to the interlocutor, when the popularity of the president is reassessed, his rating will continue to rise.

“It will be after such a victory in NATO, a meeting with the President of the United States, J. Biden. I would also like to point out that the ratings of the president are always higher than those of the government or the prime minister. <…>. Although G. Nausėda is active, the Prime Minister, the Government and the Seimas adopt resolutions on certain issues, whether to reduce, increase taxes, allowances, etc. You can, if you want, avoid these fights, ”said K. Girnius.

The general public has a similar opinion about family problems.

Political scientist K. Girnius believes that his attitude towards family problems also helps the head of the country to secure the support of a large part of society.

“The people who led that march are extreme, not the most appropriate, but when it comes to same-sex couples in general, most people have a negative opinion about it. The president has also expressed his position in such a way that even if he signs such a law, he does not strongly support the matter. This should help you, not harm you, “commented K. Girnius.

According to the political scientist, the conversation of the adviser to President Povilas Mačiulis with the participants of the Family March, when they came to the Presidency during the second wave of protests, will also be appreciated by the general public.

“I think people liked it [kad prezidento patarėjas išėjo pasikalbėti su protestuotojais]. Like in Kaunas, because of the gay march, here in Vilnius, when R. Šimašius banned all this, this decision was shameful. This violated the right of assembly. There was also an opportunity to tell the presidency: “We are not afraid of the people, we are determined to talk to you. I think the more the president talks, the more supported he will have,” said K. Girnius.

The interlocutor would not agree with the assessment that it is a populist movement.

“I think this is not a populist movement, but an attempt to keep in touch. This is useful, especially if tensions start to rise: those who feel inaudible will find at least some certain people in power, even briefly. I think P. Mačiulis acted wisely, “said K. Girnius.

He wasn’t about to equate antimits with Garliava.

The VU TSPMI political scientist did not tend to equate these antimits with the famous Garliava story.

“Garliava was a one-family drama. I don’t understand how it got so popular and how so many smart people became “Garliavians”. This [reiškinys] It can be problematic, but in general these issues are being discussed not only in Lithuania but also elsewhere, it can be addressed again. <…> So to speak, these issues must be regulated, politicians must try to do so, “said K. Girnius.

The political scientist believes that, in the absence of a referendum on this issue, various demonstrations become almost the only opportunity for people to express their opinions.

“It just came to our attention then. <…> In this case, people’s opinion on an important issue is expressed. The family rises very high in the Constitution. Your opinions must be heard. When there is no referendum, it is only those marches or other similar things that become the only means [jai reikšti]. <...> Even more so because social networks have a negative mood towards them, they will not take over the Internet ”, said K. Girnius.

You don’t see any real competitor in the presidential election

K. Girnius is convinced that G. Nausėda will run for the second term in the presidential elections, and so far he does not see an opponent who can oppose him.

“Now it is not clear who could race him. If I. Šimonytė were a candidate, he would lose again. That is quite clear,” said K. Girnius.

The interlocutor pointed out that other political parties are weakened.

“R. Karbauskis and S. Skvernelis are also not very popular. There is a possibility that there will be a second round, and in the second, I have little doubt that G. Nausėda will win if he doesn’t make big mistakes, ”said K. Girnius.

“There are so many negative evaluations of the president”

Associate Professor at Mykolas Romeris University (MRU), Political Scientist Virgis Valentinavičius Delphi He said the country’s chief, who had received both “quite negative” and “negative” evaluations, should be concerned.

“It just came to our knowledge then. Because almost 36 percent of the” quite negative and negative “evaluations for the president are very many,” said V. Valentinavičius.

He said about 60 percent. respondents who support the president’s activities are “the standard assessment of any president.”

“It just came to our knowledge then. This is clearly below G. Nausėda’s popularity at the beginning of the period or Dalia Grybauskaitė’s popularity during both periods. She was much more popular. I think this poll shows very clearly that Mr. Nausėda’s assessment is polarizing.

There are many negative evaluations, as I would say of the president. The chair of the country’s leader is the safest in terms of popularity. “You have to do something very hard to become very unpopular,” said the MRU political scientist.

Associated with protests

The interlocutor was surprised that almost no president was evaluated in such a negative way during his term.

V. Valentinavičius said that it is not necessary to look far to find out why: the word of greeting at the Great March for the Defense of the Family held in Vingis Park in mid-May was possibly more angry than gratifying.

“GRAMO. Nausė accumulates negative evaluations, I think, very strongly. On the one hand, you can say that he gained some popularity by welcoming a fringe rally in Vingis Park. But the big question is whether he lost more.” So many negative evaluations. they mean that he could have angered more people than made him happy, “said the MRU political scientist.

Delphi The interlocutor said that residents of the big cities probably accepted the greeting in Vingis Park as a “shake” of support for G. Nausėda.

“That president’s policy of electing Petras Gražulis and Rūta Janutienė as friends is clearly polarizing and divisive.” Delphi The MRU political scientist V. Valentinavičius spoke.

Collect allies

He saw the actions of the head of the country as a complete orientation towards the presidential election and an effort to seek support at all costs.

V. Valentinavičius also spoke about the so-called power games that take place in parallel.

“This is what G. Nausėda’s lawyers call political competition. Regarding the president, the rulers are accused of playing power games. But I do not think that the popularity of the president will add to that control in the trips to Brussels. It probably doesn’t diminish its popularity, but it certainly doesn’t add. ” Delphi said MRU political scientist V. Valentinavičius.

The political scientist assured that such behavior of G. Nausėda was determined by the desire to win the second term as president. And for this, according to him, the head of the country is also gathering the support of the representatives of the former ruling majority.

“It just came to our attention then. The search for political allies is being carried out and in fact war is being declared on the rulers. Garliava from Vingis Park is not everything yet, also has the support of Ramūnas Karbauskis, Saulius Skvernelis and the Union of Peasants and Greens of Lithuania (LVŽS).

Nor should we forget another important party in the former ruling majority, the Polish Lithuanian Election Campaign, the Union of Christian Families (LLRA-KŠS). The president clearly links his fate with the former rulers and their policies. And consequently, he goes to the polls in that course, “he said. Delphi presented by the political scientist V. Valentinavičius.

The interlocutor discussed to what extent that choice of “course” would become the support of G. Nausėda.

“LVŽS has support, LLRA-KŠS has in two districts. But to what extent LVŽS’s support will alienate voters living in cities for which Karbauskis is unacceptable is an open question. To what extent LLRA-KŠS will alienate voters in Lithuania is also an open question, ”said V. Valentinavičius.

Public opinion and market research company Spinter tyrimai from May 18 to 28, 2021, a news portal Delphi commissioned a public opinion poll. The study included residents between the ages of 18 and 75.

Combined survey method used: 50 percent. – by telephone survey, 50 percent. – Internet. The face-to-face interview is conducted by a professional interviewer. Talk to the respondent according to the prepared questions, record the answers in a questionnaire. After selecting the online survey, the respondent is sent a link to the survey; the respondent responds independently at a convenient time. The link is unique, that is, the questionnaire cannot be completed more than once.
The study surveyed 1,010 respondents. The distribution of study participants by sex, age and place of residence is proportional to the distribution of the population in Lithuania.

The error of the research results is 3.1%.