The internal document TS-LKD evaluates the possibilities of forming a governing coalition: it summarizes the situation of the “peasants”

The document, intended exclusively for the internal use of the TS-LKD Presidium and the TS-LKD Election Headquarters, received by ELTA, not only stated the party’s assessment of the impact of the pandemic on the country’s pre-electoral policy map, but also the main peasants of the competitors. Weaknesses and strengths. In a review of the political situation of the conservative leaders, the pre-electoral situation of the “peasants” is carefully evaluated, stating that the pandemic that has spread to the country has not only stopped the decline in government qualifications, but also had a negative impact on the Social Democratic Party of Lithuania (LSDP).

The leaked document also shows with what political forces the conservatives would decide, if possible, to form a ruling majority. And among these candidates, not only the liberals led by Aušrinė Armonaitė and Viktorija Čmilytė – Nielsen, whose successful performance is shown in the calculations presented in the analysis, the conservatives are very interested.

The hypothetical simulations presented in the document identify situations in which conservatives would decide to form a ruling majority with ideological opponents: the Social Democrats or the Labor Party, which promises to return to the Seimas. The preferences of the latest political forces, as indicated in several of the scenarios described, may be essential to give conservatives the opportunity to rally a majority in the Seimas.

The “Liberty and Justice” party led by Remigijus Žemaitaitis and the Arvydas Juozaitis and Naglis Puteikis bloc that is being built for the elections also found their role in the coalition puzzle, in the strategic vision of TS-LKD. Under the circumstances, according to the document, these political forces could repeat the role of the National Resurrection Party (TPP) led by Arūnas Valinskas.

The leaked analysis also shows how conservatives assess their advantage over “peasants”, what, in their opinion, A. Armonaitė must do first to lead his party to the Seimas, under what circumstances a ruling majority with conservatives is impossible, and finally when, after the end of the Seimas elections, there could be risks to Lithuania’s orientation to the West.

According to the document, the review will be completed in 2020. June 22 based on sociological surveys commissioned by the European People’s Party and the TS-LKD and in collaboration with independent policy analysts. TS-LKD did not comment on the details of its internal document.

“We do not comment on internal documents,” said Vytautė Šmaižytė, Head of Communications at TS-LKD.

The “peasants” were saved by a pandemic

The review of the political situation for the Presidium of the Homeland Union-Lithuanian Christian Democrats (TS-LKD) and the Central Election Staff of the TS-LKD indicates that less than four months before the Seimas elections, the coronavir pandemic changed significantly the situation of the political forces.

First, according to conservatives, the pandemic has become a factor that has displaced previously unfavorable trends to the ruling forces. Conservatives point out that it was before the pandemic that the decline in popularity of both Prime Minister Saulius Skverelis and the ruling forces was recorded, and the greatest success in the elections was for the Lithuanian Social Democratic Party led by Gintautas Paluckas.

TS-LKD and LSDP predicted election victory before pandemic

After analyzing the results of their commissioned sociological surveys, conservatives say it is highly likely that if the coronavirus crisis had not affected the country, it was the LSDP and TS-LKD that could have won the most seats in the election. Autumn

“It would have been highly likely that after the second round of the election, the two parties, TS-LKD and LSDP, would have had approximately an approximate number of seats each (eg 45 vs. 40),” the leaked document said. .

However, the threat of a pandemic, according to the analysis, practically eliminated issues from public space that were inconvenient for rulers and their leaders, and also forced society to focus on the government.

“Prime Minister Saulius Skvernelis and Health Minister Aurelijus Veryga have recovered a significant part of the previously lost favorable public assessment after transparency issues came to the background and they forgot about the narratives that prevailed around the rulers “the document reads. It lists almost all the stories that appeared in the public space and made unpopular decisions in which the rulers in one way or another appeared in a negative context.

Such events include the story of the ability of Transport Minister Jaroslav Narkevičius to continue in office, the issue of an asphalt road near the Prime Minister’s house, the attempt to remove the President of the Seimas, the removal of Rokas Masiulis of the Minister of Transport, the attempt to reduce the electoral cartel, the automobile pollution tax, etc.

The Peasant Party, according to an analysis by the conservative leadership, was also able to regain lost momentum and regain its abandoned ranking positions during the crisis. This is demonstrated by the sociological research commissioned by TS-LKD.

According to conservatives, the resurgent “peasants” not only recovered a large chunk of frustrated former voters, but at the same time pushed the LSDP from second to third place and stopped the emerging trend of favoritism by the Labor Party.

“Although, unlike other states, the main ruling party did not expel the TS-LKD opposition in the first place, (LVŽS – ELTA) regained a significant share of support among the center-left electorate,” the analysis says.

Conservative damage by coronavirus was assessed

Meanwhile, the Conservative Party, according to the document, lost 4 to 5 percent due to the coronavirus crisis. Favorable votes and opportunities to further widen the gap with the ruling “peasants” when Ingrida Šimonytė agreed to keep the TS-LKD list.

However, it is noted in the document, ordered by the party from May 7 to 12, 2020. Norstat’s research shows that conservatives still lead the way against “peasants.” And this leadership, outlined in a document addressed to party leadership, helps address the strategic problem of the TS-LKD’s second-round, single-member regional constituencies.

“LVŽS, unlike 2016. During the parliamentary election campaign, when it successfully positioned itself as a positive, non-polarizing political agenda force and with a kind of middle ground between the main rivals of the time, LSDP and TS-LKD , lost this advantage this year. Despite support from some of the former voters recovered during the pandemic, the LV®S currently has not only a significant share of supporters, but also a very large segment of voters who are willing to vote “against” the rulers. During this Seimas period, the LVŽS became a political force no less polarized in society than the TS-LKD, which had previously “led” according to this negative view, due to the style Often aggressive action and divisive rhetoric. According to the sociological model of the hypothetical second round of single-member constituencies, a large majority of Social Democratic, Labor and Liberal voters now they would give a conservative candidate who competes against a peasant representative more favor if their first-choice candidate does not enter the second round, ”the analysis said.

He presented three possible scenarios for the outcome of the Seimas elections.

In addition to the presented interpretation of political events, the document for the conservative leadership highlights several other effects caused by the pandemic, which, according to the authors of the analysis, are significant for the possible deployment of political forces.

Firstly, the popularity regained by the Vilnius mayor, Remigijus Šimašius, who belongs to the Freedom Party. Second, the dispersal of the growing popularity of the Labor Party. The third effect mentioned is the limitation of the potential of small and new parties and the irrelevance of their political agenda in health conditions and potentially economic crisis.

According to the people who carried out the analysis, judging by the current political trends and evaluating the hypothetical scenarios of the second round of the elections, it is possible to design at least three different results of the Seimas elections.

Although all the scenarios plotted predict that the TS-LKD will receive the largest number of seats, the assessment of the possibility that conservatives will be involved in the formation of the ruling coalition varies greatly.

The first scenario: two unclear blocks and preferences of the LSDP and the Labor Party

The first scenario is considered realistic and is largely based on the current political context. In the first scenario, conservatives talk about the formation of two possible political blocks, the “Labor Party Dilemma” and the possibilities of forming a “Cohesion Coalition”.

The essence of this scenario is that after the autumn elections, the Conservatives and the Liberal Movement, currently cooperating in the opposition, on the one hand, and the ruling “peasants” and the Polish Electoral Campaign of Lithuania – The Union of Christian Families (LLRA-KŠS), on the other, can form two opposing political blocs.

Having won the majority of the seats, but not enough to form a ruling coalition, both blocks, the conservatives guess, would continue to depend on the political preferences of the Social Democrats and the “workers”.

For such a scenario to materialize, the document emphasizes that it would be sufficient, in principle, for the current political situation to be postponed until the day of the elections.

The strategic premise of this scenario is that the “peasants”, rather than the conservatives, can attract the Social Democrats and the “working class” to the regions due to the generous distribution of money during the coronavirus crisis.

Another strategic premise of this scenario is that the Freedom Party led by A. Armonaitė may not be able to transform the popularity of Vilnius Mayor R. Šimašius into support for the entire party. In that case, conservatives believe that this political force would remain only in a narrow segment of voters.

Another premise recorded in the document is the return of the Labor Party to politics. In developing the logic of this scenario, according to conservative calculations, “employees” can queue for a quarter according to the mandates of multiple members and gather 5 more mandates into groups of a single member. In total, analysts predict 15 seats for this party in this raffled scenario.

Meanwhile, if this scenario were to be met, 45 seats could be brought together, “peasants” 34 seats, 23 Social Democrats and the Liberal Movement 10. It is projected that the LLRA-KŠS would raise 7 seats and another 15 seats would be awarded to independent candidates.

Therefore, continuing in the leaked document, in this scenario, the TS-LKD block and the Liberal Movement would have 55 seats, and the LVŽS and LLRA block would have 41 seats.

“In that case, the ruling coalition would depend on the preferences of the LSDP and the Labor Party, which they block to support.” If the LSDP decides to join the traditional center-right party bloc and form a Santarv rainbow coalition, in that case it would be enough to form a ruling majority of three parties: TS-LKD, LSDP and the Liberal Movement, “the document read.

The possibility of a coalition with the Labor Party and the Liberals was evaluated.

It is not ruled out that the “workers” can also help form a coalition. However, such a possibility, that conservatives would form a coalition with “workers” and liberals, is considered more mathematical.

“In this scenario, there are likely to be protracted, lengthy and volatile negotiations (following the example of Israel or even Belgium) and possibly government approval a second or third time, with smaller parties (LSDP and DP) maneuvering and holding votes gold to negotiate positions and disproportionate political influence. ” , – highlighted in the document.

He mentioned the possible role of the forces of A. Juozaitis and R. Žemaitaitis

However, it is emphasized that other variations of this scenario are possible, which would be repeated in 2008 The situation when, depending on the decision of the People’s Resurrection Party led by A. Valinskas, which political bloc would form the Government.

According to the conservatives, A. Arvinskas’s party could be replaced by political formations led by Arvydas Juozaitis and Remigijus Žemaitaitis. However, your chances of entering Seimas are considered low in this scenario.

“What could be the place of the TPP in this election? Candidates: a political coalition led by A. Juozaitis or a political coalition led by Žemaitaitis, if they still manage to cross the five percent cartel, ”argue conservatives.

The second scenario is the disappearance of the liberal parties from the political game.

The second scenario is called out loud “Liberation of Liberals and Protest Against the State”. Conservatives believe that the TS-LKD is likely to win elections in a multi-member constituency, as well as an absolute majority of single-member constituencies in the four major cities. However, the analysts who conducted the analysis emphasize that both liberal parties cannot achieve similar success, which is very important for conservatives to form a ruling coalition.

Conservatives do not rule out that, under certain circumstances, a liberal voter may choose the TS-LKD due to the “strategic voting” effect. And that would be the main reason why both the Liberal Movement and the Freedom Party would not exceed 5 percent. multi-county signs.

In discussing the second-scenario assumptions, conservatives again argue that the Labor Party may perform well in the elections. Also, that 5 percent. the A. Juozaitis and N. Puteikis barrier can cross the barrier when three smaller parts merge.

Conservatives also mention other factors important to the fulfillment of this scenario: the strengthening of public apathy, a participation below average, the mobilizing electorate that believes in theories of protest and conspiracy.

In all these circumstances, the conservatives predict that TS-LKD could gather around 40 seats, LVŽS – 35, LSDP – 26, Labor Party – 19, LLRA – 7 seats, and the coalition list of A. Juozaitis and N. Puteikis – 7 seats. Another 7 seats in the Seimas could be held by independent candidates.

Conservatives have no chance of forming a majority

If this pessimistic scenario occurred, according to the document, the conservatives, despite the greater number of seats they would receive, would be left without a greater possibility of forming a coalition.

“In this scenario, the TS-LKD, although slightly increasing the number of seats, remains essentially the only force in opposition to the left bloc and the protest, populist and anti-systemic parties,” said the political review.

The text also notes that this scenario would pose certain risks to Lithuania’s orientation to the West.

“It can be predicted that in such a case there would be a very difficult task to protect statehood and western orientation from the danger of a borrowed ‘satellite state’,” the analysis says.

The third scenario: hopes for a good performance of I. Šimonytė and G. Landsbergis

Finally, the third, an optimistic scenario, paints positive prospects for the right-wing opposition parties. This hypothetically modeled scenario is called “Winning the Center-Right Coalition.”

First, conservatives associate the strategic assumptions of the last and most attractive setting for the party with I. Šimonytė’s chances to increase public support for the Conservative Party. However, for the scenario, which is considered optimistic in the analysis, to take place in reality, a good performance by the party president, Gabrielius Landsbergis, is also required. According to the document, G. Landsbergis should at least repeat a successful performance in the Centro-Žaliakalnis single-member constituency, and conservatives would win the remaining 6 constituencies in Kaunas city and 1 Kaunas district.

“After updating and strengthening the TS-LKD list in Kaunas, as shown by soc. research, this is a favorable situation and high probability, “says the analysis.

Consequently, for this scenario to emerge, the Freedom Party should do well. To this end, conservatives say, it is necessary to transform the popularity of R. Šimašius as mayor of Vilnius in support of the Freedom Party into a multi-member constituency. This, according to conservatives, would allow it to exceed 5 percent. a barrier to this newly formed match, which is still at the bottom of the leaderboard.

Another precondition is that the liberal movement led by V. Čmilytė-Nielsen should also go well.

„V. The successful leadership of Čmilytė-Nielsen in renewing the postmassive image of the Liberal Movement in the cities and at the same time integrating and exploiting the administrative network of the Liberal Party in the pragmatic regions, ”the document reads.

Finally, for this scenario to materialize, conservatives say, the public should begin to protest against the existing manifestations of nepotism and opacity in the state.

“Social activism and mobilization in protest against the manifestations of nepotism, the opacity and corruption of the rulers and the resulting participation of large urban residents and youth in the elections,” said the conservative in a statement.

There would be no riddles to form a dominant majority

If all these circumstances were actually met, the document predicts that the TS-LKD account would have 54 seats in the fall after the election, followed by the LSDP second with 26 seats, then the “peasants” with 22 seats, the Liberal movement with 11 seats and “workers” seats, Freedom Party for 6 seats, LLRA – 7 seats. Candidates from other parties and self-proclaimed politicians would share 5 more seats.

As the document emphasizes, there would be no great puzzles to form a coalition if this scenario materializes.

“In this scenario, the TS-LKD (54), the Liberal Movement (11) and the Freedom Party (6) will be enough to form a center-right coalition, reinforcing the majority with a few more independent candidates,” he said. The document.