The humiliation in Moscow is just the beginning: the EU offers to prepare for the crisis with Russia and learn from Lithuania

“I think now is a very bad time to go to Moscow,” Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis told Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty on Thursday, commenting only on the upcoming visit of the foreign affairs commissioner and EU Security Policy to Moscow. The warnings from him and several other EU heads of diplomacy that the Kremlin could take advantage of this visit were rude.

Instead, Borrell did everything according to the usual, civilized and well-known rules of the game of the West: a moderate, even friendly tone, a declared positive destiny, but at the same time, at least from the point of view of the EU, a balanced message – with optimism and mild criticism of the Kremlin for the arrest of its critic Alexei Navaln, emphasis on the principles declared by the EU. And in a good mood – an “exclusive interview” prior to the visit.

Spanish diplomat J. Borrell, who has many years of experience and knows his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov well, was optimistic. Abandoning negative rhetoric would be a good start for a fair and open dialogue between the Community and Russia, and both sides should keep communication channels open, according to Borrel himself to the Russian news agency Interfax before the visit. As soon as he arrived in Moscow, Borrell had to understand that he was trapped. Lavrov, with the help of Kremlin spokesmen, humiliated not only the head of EU diplomacy, but also the entire EU, and as a dessert, the expulsion of Polish, German and Swedish diplomats.

After receiving a damp cloth to his face, Mr Borrel had already called for a withdrawal, regretting that it was true, not because of his recklessness, but because of the Kremlin’s behavior, which finally tightened its tone and pointed out a crossroads and a division each time. higher. .

But all this is just words. And although the countries directly humiliated by Russia responded in the same way: Poland, Germany and Sweden sent three Russian diplomats from their countries, it is clear that the humiliated EU had to lick its wounds and react once more, although it could have been quite different. . According to Delfi’s interlocutors, it should be different: the EU can no longer be an organization that is only obliged to respond to outbursts from the Kremlin.

For lack of preparation: a well-deserved lesson

It was the response that was demanded first, and finally from the EU, to Navalnd’s arrest, the demonstration trial and the suppression of protests in Russia: the EU as a community of states, as well as its individual countries, “Russia strongly condemned. ”, Expressed his deep concern and attention for what was happening in Russia through traditional diplomatic statements.

But this is neither a strategy nor, according to critics, an adequate sequence of actions that could impress or influence the Kremlin. And Borrel’s own urgently planned visit, experts say, was poorly planned and, by chance, turned into an opportunity for Moscow to set a trap – the EU and, in particular, Borrel himself simply made the task easier.

“We had to admit that Borrel was not ready: the purpose and meaning of the visit were not clear. Certainly, it was not clear in the official reports what he wanted to convey in Moscow. Even more so when it was warned in advance about this visit that it could It would be risky that going to Maxva right now would mean supporting what the Kremlin is doing. Therefore, a visit without a strong message could have seemed like a kind of humble sign, “said Tomas Janeliūnas, professor and political scientist at the University of Vilnius.

Andrius Kubilius MEP said Moscow had taken the opportunity to send a clear message to the entire EU and the West.

“It should be remembered that just before Ms Borrel’s visit, Swedish Foreign Minister Ann Linde, who chaired the OSCE, visited Moscow and received the same lesson.

Recalling the Lithuanian proverb “there is no evil that does not turn out to be good”, the conclusion is simple: there is no need to have any illusions about the Putin regime. We have repeated this lesson many times and it is good that they were received by the head of EU diplomacy, “noted A. Kubilius.

Valuable Lithuanian Lessons

According to T. Janeliūnas, the result could have been unexpected not only for J. Borrelis, but also for neighbors who are not well acquainted with Russian behavior, such as Lithuania, who have repeatedly seen and experienced aggressive behavior from the Kremlin.

“It is certainly not unexpected for those of us who have seen the Kremlin treat humble or moderate European politicians. The expulsion of diplomats from the EU is one of the harshest signs against the entire EU and a demonstration that all those sanctions are ridiculous, ”Janeliūnas emphasized, noting that Borrel was just a symptom of the entire EU policy towards Russia, not a cause.

“This is not the first visit to end, it reflects the EU’s indecision on a broader scale. Many EU politicians, especially those on the left, tend to shake hands on human rights violations in Russia or critical actions such as the ongoing poisoning, as this is not the first time. But this does not change the principle that it is still necessary to dialogue with Russia, to speak in a civilized way, “said the expert, noting that most EU politicians have not yet They understand these lessons, and some spit morality in calculating possible specific or other criminal penalties, losses for Russia.

“Russia has long linked Europe through commercial ties and built a wide network of business and politicians, where people have been fed contracts, support and other nice things that it is not easy to give up.

The West, on the other hand, has not suffered as much from Russia’s actions as we have: for them, it has been an annoying neighbor with whom it is not pleasant to communicate and so much. The EU is not determined to what extent it can bear the costs of the fundamental changes it can make.

We have experienced those costs: we have had to end our trade relationship or reorient the economy, we have faced it and it has become acceptable to us, and the EU does not have that experience.

For this reason, it is necessary to talk about it in the EU, which must calculate these costs and as soon as possible, knowing that it will cost, ”said T. Janeliūnas. After the economic crises of 1999 and 2008, and especially after the EU sanctions against Russia in 2014, Lithuania became less and less dependent on Russia.

And although Lithuania continues to be the country that exports the most to this country, the declining dependence on the Russian market has shown that the dramatic predictions about the “consequences of anti-Russian rhetoric: the collapse of the Lithuanian economy” have not materialized, and some companies have been able to reorient.

At that time, according to A. Kubilius, it is necessary to look to the future now, especially in the run-up to the Duma elections, when V. Putin, according to A. Kubilius, will follow in the footsteps of Alexander Lukashenko. and try to steal the elections. This would not be an unexpected case or the first in Russia, but this time, according to A. Kubilius, the EU not only has to do it, but can also prepare for it and fundamentally review relations with Russia.

“The Council of the EU will meet at the end of March, there will be an EP report that I have to start writing, so I urge you to focus on reviewing that policy and clearly define what that other policy should look like in the near future. long term, “he suggested. Hydromassage bathtub. In his view, the EU and the West as a whole must adhere to a clear democratic principle and think in advance not only about the response to sanctions, but also about preventive and long-term detention mechanisms.

“In the West, it was unexpected until now that Russia could be different, and it was thought that we had to adapt to Russia with Putin as he is. Unexpectedly, Russia can transform into a democracy, it is necessary not to have naive hopes.

And we are fighting this attitude and trying to show that Russia can be democratic. Not all democracies still have real instruments to change the brutal functioning of autocrats, so in some capitals the fight for democracy does not rise.

This is also a challenge for Lithuania, because sometimes it seems that Lithuania does not believe that it can change the western attitude towards the strategy that is needed for Russia, it is limited to short-term actions, if Putin poisons Navalna or puts him in prison. We say we need sanctions, but we are not trying to look at the perspective of a decade, what processes can take place in the post-Soviet space, we are not trying to see what Western policy can change the processes in Russia, we are not trying to give ourselves strategic directions or form coalitions in the West, this is a task for us. I see what Lithuania could do, “A. Kubilius did not hide.

“I have repeatedly said that the EU must learn strategic responsibilities for the region. During the last six months, the EP adopted 2 resolutions on the arrest and poisoning of Mr. Navaln.” I do not know if it is due to our call or it is just ripe but the EU Council will at least start discussing the strategic review at the end of March, “he added about the upcoming changes.