The government between hammer and anvil: how will I. Šimonytė and the team maneuver?

Last week’s business day statistics on new cases in COVID-19 show numbers that have not been seen for some time, surpassing 700 cases per day.

Cases of coronavirus of the so-called PAR strain have been reported in Lithuania.

The resistance of this strain to available antibodies and vaccines is of concern; even vaccinated or virus-infected populations can be re-infected..

Furthermore, the British strain of COVID-19 is spreading and becoming more contagious in Lithuania. Most of their cases are registered in the city of Vilnius and the municipalities of Marijampolė.

Three months before vaccination began, very few people were vaccinated. According to data from the Department of Statistics, currently the first vaccine exceeds 11 percent. persons.

As in other European Union (EU) countries, not enough coronavirus vaccines reach Lithuania.

Mass vaccination is being delayed. On Friday, the Health Ministry said it could tentatively start in June..

Although President Gitan Nauseda has repeatedly reiterated after the European Council that the goal is to vaccinate the EU with 70% by the end of the summer. adult population. And Lithuania is said to be among the states that “can do it even a little earlier.”.

At the beginning of last week, I. Šimonytė began to talk about the fact that in such a situation the release from the quarantine regime cannot be expected. On the contrary, it can be expected to toughen up and decisions on it will be made at a government meeting called on Friday.

In this context, many have speculated what measures the Cabinet of Ministers will take, without denying that quite strict restrictions can be lifted.

The government’s decision was as follows: extend the quarantine for one more month, until midnight on April 30, to restore movement restrictions for the Easter period.. Also approve a mandatory testing regimen stating that post-relapse testing and vaccination with both doses of the vaccine will not be required.

No closing of existing businesses.

Lack of coherence and logic

The dean of the Faculty of Political Science and Diplomacy of Vytautas Magnus University (Vytautas Magnus University) Šarūnas Liekis stressed that the situation is one of crisis. The nation will nominate or condemn the government depending on the outcome of its government.

“It is not a question of bureaucratic convenience and it is not about appeasing public opinion. The fact that he has been raped for a long time and continues to be raped is not good. But, on the other hand, I would say that solidarity talk, an attempt to call for solidarity, etc., to communicate with people, is a good step forward. Because Lithuanians are used to having a child here with a bison ”, commented the teacher.

According to Š. The question now remains of the suitability of one or another of the quarantine measures chosen by the Government.

According to the VMU professor, it is recognized that COVID-19 is not transmitted in hairdressers and stores, but mainly through social contacts.

“It just came to our notice then. Now the appropriateness of those measures is not clear, of course, all the time restrictive measures are not popular. If you remember why the previous government has been criticizing all the time, that someone is restricting something. Now they have faced the same thing themselves, “Š said.

If you remember why the previous government has been criticizing all the time, that someone is restricting something. Now they face the same thing themselves.

He was skeptical about some of the quarantine measures, such as restrictions on movement between municipalities. According to Vytautas University professor Magnus, there are many situations where people need to move from one district to another.

“It just came to our attention then. The government doesn’t even have the basic capacity to implement it,” said the professor.

According to Š.Liekis, he was in a hurry with permission to go back to school.

Also, as he said, there is inconsistency, there is no calculation, there is no lack of a clear and logical causal scheme.

“It just came to our attention then. Here, of course, it is not easy for anyone to do it, but coherence, reflection is lacking. It looks like this. to this answer: aha, here are the holidays, now suddenly here everyone is going to celebrate Easter. We will not necessarily drive it, “he estimated.

At the same time, Š.Liekis mentioned that in such a situation it is not easy to avoid restrictions, because in the first place it is a question of public safety whether we will be able to overcome the coronavirus pandemic with the least possible losses.

A researcher at Vytautas Magnus University believes that many people are tired and unwilling to pay the price for quarantine restrictions.

The popularity problem

According to Š.Liekis, the popularity of the government is quite low compared to other predecessors who started its work.

As a result, the cabinet is also under enormous pressure.

Furthermore, the VMU professor emphasized that the weakness of the state apparatus was clearly visible in this situation.

According to him, the civil service has been seriously eroded over the last decade. This also makes it difficult to have and follow a consistent policy.

If the popularity of the government declines, Š.Liekis did not rule out the possible collapse of the ruling coalition.

“It just came to our knowledge then. N variants can be here. A possible minority government after that, everything can be here. Various options if the crisis is not managed like that. After all, everyone wants to be popular. All those partners, both the Freedom Party and the Liberal Movement, want to be in a popular government. Nobody wants to be with an unpopular government, “commented the VMU professor.

Nobody wants to be with an unpopular government.

He sees the pressure

Virgis Valentinavičius, an associate professor at Mykolas Romeris University (MRU) who advised Conservative Prime Minister Andrius Kubilis in 2009-2012, said the government has been under pressure from various interest groups to release the quarantine for some time.

The pressure, as discussed, is likely to increase.

According to him, interest groups also find representatives in the Seimas who oppose them. He cited as an example Saul Skvernel, deputy prime minister of the former prime minister.

V. Valentinavičius disagreed that the government did not make firm decisions on Friday. According to the MRU speaker, the quarantine measures were clearly stricter.

“And those measures are absolutely against everything that companies are increasingly demanding. We hear such reasoning that supermarkets do not understand the government’s logic. Such sayings are a bit funny. I suspect that ordinary people have a very clear understanding of the government’s logic that the regime must toughen up as the pandemic worsens. The regime has freed itself, the situation has worsened, it is necessary to return to those measures that have helped. Well, and for interest groups, that understanding the government’s logic is greatly complicated by interests ”, commented the reviewer.

The regime has been liberated, the situation has worsened, it is necessary to return to those measures that have helped.

V. Valentinavičius recalled that he had already spoken that the difficulties for this cabinet will begin when the first success in managing the coronavirus pandemic arrives.

That’s exactly what happened: As soon as the COVID-19 morbidity statistics improved, there was immediate pressure and demands to release the leaders and return to normal life.

In the opinion of the MRU associate professor, the Government is right to ignore the chorus of interests, first of all thinking of people and protecting them by the means that have been announced.

“It is possible to talk to interest groups about how to liberate companies into new conditions without specifically increasing the chances of the virus. But I think what the government really cannot afford is to just take and literally give the company everything it asks for. Really do what the Skvernel government did in the last two months before the elections.

So the idea was not to protect people from disease and death, but to please as many influential people as possible. That the government is not giving in to this logic now, I think, is a good thing. Only, of course, it is very difficult to do that, and the question is how much the I. Šimonyte column will be able to withstand this pressure, ”says my former advisor to A. Kubilius.

Business support could be better

There is much talk of people who are exhausted by the situation, who have suffered financial losses, have lost their jobs, are in downtime and experience emotional difficulties.

V. Valentineinavičius is skeptical about the knowledge that society is very frustrated.

“Listen, who says society is frustrated? These are the same interest groups, the same politicians who serve the interest groups. And very seldom do we hear people’s words directly. (…) I recently heard on LRT Radio: “What are you doing during a pandemic? Are you not overwhelmed? “No, it doesn’t bother me, I listen to music, I like music.”

Some of that may be, but interest groups are guaranteed to blow that outrage like a magnifying glass, because they are interested in using that so-called outrage to pressure the government. I suspect that there is actually much less outrage than the wealthy and influential people who run businesses and the politicians who serve them like to speak on behalf of the people, ”thinks the MRU lecturer.

However, there are not only rich and influential companies, but also small and medium-sized companies that cannot yet open and that face financial and liquidity problems.

V. Valentinavičius recognized that, in the sense of state aid to companies, things could improve: more organized, more determined and clearer.

In his view, the easiest way for the Cabinet of Ministers to defend itself against business pressure would be to “remove” the argument that state aid is ineffective.

“Probably the much fairer business case is when they ask for help. And this could be an area where the government could go further and deprive corporate lobbyists of that argument, since no help is provided, start a business, ”said V. Valentinavičius.

At the same time, he added, much remains to be done in handling the bureaucratic procedures through which support reaches companies.