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Leaving the aviation well
“Spring was the well when aviation came to a complete stop in many parts of the world.” Total passenger flow is forecast at 50% this year. smaller, ”said Aurimas Stikliūnas, Head of the Department of Aviation Services at Lithuanian Airports.
Europe has been the most affected, with a projected drop of 57% on the continent. LTOU forecasts that the flow of passengers in our country will decrease by 51 percent this year. The flow of flights will recover a little faster: they are expected to decrease by 39% this year.
“The offer will recover earlier. The recovery of flights will be faster, but the recovery of passenger traffic will be more moderate and will depend on the confidence of the travelers themselves, if they feel safe,” explained A. Stikliūnas.
Lithuanian airports were also rescued by the fact that the flow of flights did not stop completely, although there were no passenger flights, the load increased. According to A.Stikliūnas, the scale of conventional cargo airlines was probably the maximum at the airport. In addition, there were several charter cargo trips with medical equipment.
LTOU forecasts that in 2019. level in terms of passengers and flights will not return until the end of next year. “It was very easy to cancel flights, but it is difficult to restore them,” said A. Stikliūnas. Still, they are gradually coming back.
“We came out of that air hole and in July we already forecast growth sometimes, not even in percentage,” he said.
July, according to the LTOU representative, is a turning point from which flights will resume, passengers will fly again, countries’ travel restrictions will be released. Already in July, 70 routes are planned from three Lithuanian airports. In comparison, there were 96 of them last year.
All routes for which flight permits were obtained were obtained It can be viewed on the Lithuania airports page.
Next month, airlines such as Ryanair, Austria and Brussels will resume operations in Lithuania, and charter flights to Greece and Bulgaria will return. According to A.Stikliūnas, the flow of charter flights will recover more slowly, since it is related to the entire tourism sector.
“What will recover most quickly is the flow of migrants, as well as business flights,” predicted an LTOU representative. In May and June, the most popular destinations were Germany and Norway. But travelers are already beginning to search southern European countries, Europe’s main cities for weekends, business trips.
Only one company has not yet approved the resumption of flights.
A.Stikliūnas recalled that crises are a time of opportunity, and are followed by a stage of rapid growth. This is also demonstrated by the aviation experience, both after September 11 and after 2009. The decline in passenger numbers during the financial crisis has been growing rapidly for several years. LTOU now forecasts 4-5 years of rapid growth.
A.Stikliūnas has identified safety as a key priority: making passengers feel safe and ready to travel.
At the same time, he emphasized that LTOU has also worked extensively with airlines that have suffered millions in losses. To maintain existing agreements, airlines have been offered deferrals, aviation fare discounts, temporary incentives, etc. State support is also expected, which would be an important factor in competition with other airports.
“It is not the case that airlines visit us and ask us for permission to fly,” explained A. Stikliūnas. On the contrary, they are the airports that compete for the company to read from it. Negotiations did not stop during the crisis, and this year Lithuanian travelers will have six more routes than last year, a total of 106.
This year’s new routes will go to Dubrovnik, Dublin, London Gatwick Airport, Oslo, Yerevan and Saint Petersburg.
It has been confirmed that almost all airlines that have previously flown to Lithuanian airports will resume their flights. According to A. Stikliūnas, only Ukraine International has yet to confirm its plans. They are scheduled to be updated in the fall, but final approval is not yet available.
This year’s new routes will go to Dubrovnik, Dublin, London Gatwick Airport, Oslo, Yerevan and Saint Petersburg.
Of course, flight and route updates can be corrected by spreading the coronavirus. “Uncertainty is one of the evils of this crisis,” admitted A. Stikliūnas.
Prices are not expected to increase significantly
Although ticket prices are set by the airlines themselves, A. Stikliūnas predicted that they should not increase significantly. Especially those airlines whose main strategy is low fares.
“The airlines with the best chance of suddenly restoring flows are the ones with the most liquidity,” explained the LTOU representative. “Companies like EasyJet, Ryanair and WizzAir were better prepared for the crisis and had a lot of muscle.”
According to an aviation expert, these low-cost airlines could still endure a crisis of a year or a half. And now they’ll try to capture as much of the market as possible, push aggressive marketing, and try to take over clients from other companies and maybe even routes.
Some security requirements will remain
As one of the essential factors for the recovery of the aviation sector, A. Stikliūnas mentioned the confidence and desire of passengers to travel. It will only depend on them how many and which routes the airlines will offer.
Airports, in turn, strive to ensure the safety of passengers’ health. In them, A.Stikliūnas emphasized, he will continue to be asked to wear masks, although this is no longer mandatory in Lithuania after the end of quarantine. The call for the use of disinfecting liquids will also remain. However, passenger temperatures will no longer be measured.
The airlines themselves may apply additional requirements: the rules of each airline must be verified before the flight. In addition, passengers must know the requirements of a particular host country.
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