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This time, unlike four years ago, the change of government occurred during a pandemic crisis in the country. And that’s not news to conservatives. With the onset of the financial crisis in 2008 after the Seimas elections, Andrius Kubilius took control of the government and in four years, by making unpopular decisions, “burned” both his popularity and that of the party. According to experts, it is too early to say if Ingrida Šimonyte and her Cabinet of Ministers are threatened with a similar fate, although they have managed to find assumptions that this time things could happen differently.
According to a poll conducted by Baltic Research from November 6 to 30 on behalf of the ELTA news agency, the TS-LKD, which won the Seimas elections, will surely maintain its leadership in the party rankings. 15.5 percent declared their support for the Conservatives led by Gabriel Landsbergis. population of the country.
Behind them is still the main opposition party, the Lithuanian Union of Greens and Peasants (LVŽS). After the Seimas elections, the “peasants” headed by Ramūnas Karbauskis have the support of exactly 13 percent. the citizens.
The liberal parties of the ruling coalition remain aligned: the Liberal Movement chaired by Victoria Čmilytė-Nielsen (8.8%) and the Freedom Party led by Aušrinė Armonaitė (7.7%).
More than 5 percent. The support in the leaderboard has two other political forces that managed to enter the Seimas and form factions.
Fifth on the leaderboard is the Labor Party, which has the smallest faction among the opposition forces. 7.2% admit to sympathizing with the “workers” led by Viktor Uspaskich. surveyed. The Lithuanian Social Democrats led by Gintautas Paluckas, who remain in opposition, have slightly less support. According to November data, they were backed by 6.4 percent. population.
The political parties mentioned in the following leaderboard did not enter the Seimas during the October elections. However, some of these parties are represented in the Seimas by single-member parliamentarians.
The Polish Lithuanian Election Campaign-Union of Christian Families (LLRA-KŠS), led by Valdemaras Tomaševskis, which declared that the elections to the Seimas were unfair, still has 3.2 percent. surveyed. Behind this party is the so-called Freedom and Justice Party of the “Three Musketeers”, which had great ambitions but did not enter the Seimas. This training chaired by Remigijus Žemaitaitis is supported by 2.9 percent. the citizens.
At the bottom of the leaderboard, the National Center Party led by Naglis Puteikis, which no longer has representatives in the Seimas (1.7 percent). Finally, the list is completed by the former ruling party of “social workers” of Gediminas Kirkilas. Last November, it supported 1.3 percent. population. It is true that although the “social workers”, such as LLRA-KŠS, in the Seimas elections the 5% barrier and did not exceed, each won 3 seats in the politicians representing these parties in single-member electoral districts.
According to Baltic Research, less than one percent of respondents intended to vote for other parties participating in the elections.
Meanwhile, a third (31.7%) of the surveyed population indicated that they would not participate in the Seimas elections or are undecided about what to vote on. Compared to the survey 3 months ago, the number of people who were undecided or did not intend to participate in the Seimas elections increased by 5 percentage points.
Experts assess conservatives’ chances of breaking ‘glass ceiling’
Commenting on the ranking of the first parties after the Seimas elections, experts note that the conservatives are returning to power once the state is in deep crisis. On the one hand, says Rasa Ališauskienė, Director of Baltic Studies, in at least one respect, the public reaction to the Conservative victory is identical to that which emerged in 2008, when the Union of the Fatherland led by Andrius Kubilius won the Seimas elections. . On the other hand, this does not necessarily mean that the COVID-19 crisis will burn the popularity of I. Šimonytė and freeze the growth prospects of the party’s electorate.
Both I. Šimonytė and the party itself, says Rima Urbonaitė, a political scientist at the Mykolas Romeris University (MRU), who replaces R. Ališauskien han, have acquired significant experience in crisis management.
However, the director of Baltic Research points out that the first reactions of the public after the Seimas elections differ from those of 2016, winning over the “peasants”.
“The ranking of the winning parties jumped after the elections. For example, the ranking of” peasants “after the 2016 Seimas elections was quite high. But even when the conservatives led by Andrius Kubilius won the elections, there was no interruption of competition. Conservatives have a different specificity. Their electorate is loyal and concentrated, but there are as many as there are, “R. Ališauskienė told Eltai.
In other words, the sociologist agreed that he did not see greater post-election enthusiasm for the Conservatives, mainly because the party, which had an almost “impenetrable” glass ceiling, won the elections.
“They just don’t get voters from the left,” said the director of Baltic Research.
And he did not hesitate to speculate if the problems caused by COVID-19, which the party will have to show in the near future, and that it will be able to solve them, will allow those glass ceilings to be “broken”.
“It is very difficult to know before they start working. Therefore, it would be difficult to guess, “said R. Ališauskienė.
According to her, the dynamics of the coronavirus crisis make it difficult to predict the long-term popularity prospects for the party. According to R. Ališauskienė, a good example is how the support of the “peasants” has changed in the context of the crisis caused by the pandemic.
“If we look at the spring situation, the evaluations of the ‘peasants’ have increased during the spring quarantine. Let me remind you that in early 2020, their situation looked very bad. The question was even raised whether they would enter the Seimas But in the spring, their support increased, but after a while it started to deteriorate again. So the key question in this regard is what measures will be taken and how will they work, and what will be the state of the economy in the end. of everything, there is a complete package of areas, not only health ”, explained R. Ališauskienė.
Meanwhile, Rima Urbonaitė, a political scientist at Mykolas Romeris University (MRU), said she did not rule out the possibility that the crisis caused by the coronavirus left conservatives behind the state slightly different impressions than the financial crisis during the Kubilius government.
“If the number of infections and deaths begins to decrease and those responsible show that they can still handle the situation, the public response is likely to be positive. Although perhaps those regulatory or prohibitive measures will be stricter,” said R. Urbonaitė .
According to the political scientist, society in general can break some stereotypes about conservatives that are rooted in the public sphere. R. Urbonaitė considers that one of the preconditions for such a possibility is that Prime Minister I. Šimonytė probably understood and learned from the mistakes made by A. Kubilius during the previous crisis.
For this reason, the MRU speaker did not rule out the possibility that the successful management of the COVID-19 crisis and the close and empathetic communication of the right with the public could even expand the ranks of conservative supporters.
“I think they can send a good message about themselves, create a more positive image if they are able to show competence and communicate correctly. Unfortunately, but for the outgoing rulers, it is clear that some of the awards were handed out well in advance, and in recent weeks, many could not have been disappointed. Therefore, at least a little more inclined towards more people, the conservatives have all the possibilities. I’m not saying you can quickly increase your ranks, but I think it’s an opportunity to start building a different image of yourself. And it will depend on your own performance. The government offers many opportunities both to improve its image and to damage it, ”he said.
S. Skvernelis has a good chance of becoming the most prominent political figure of the center left
However, the COVID-19 crisis, R. Ališauskienė did not hesitate, it will be a real test for the Cabinet of Ministers of I. Šimonytė. The greatest burden and public attention will be paid, at least in the near future, not only to the Prime Minister, but also to the Minister of Health Arūnas Dulkis, the Minister of Economy and Innovation Aušrinė Armonaitė. Therefore, the head of “Baltic Research” continued, only the decisions made by the new government will show how much and whether the public’s trust in the leaders of the new government will be maintained.
On the other hand, R. Ališauskienė emphasized that the question can be raised about the political future and the weight of Saulius Skvernelis, who has resigned as prime minister.
According to the sociologist, the former prime minister has a great opportunity to establish himself as the most prominent political figure of the center left. However, everything will depend on how much S. Skvernel, who has been pushed into the opposition, wants to be active himself.
“I think Skvernel will continue to be a visible politician. He runs further to the left of the center. So if we look at what he’s competing with, we will see that he has no major competitors left of the center. Paluckas is gradually disappearing and there is no one with who to compete. The skvernel to the left of the center is more visible and remembered. However, everything will depend on how active it is and how much it wants to be visible, “summarized R. Ališauskienė.
The survey was conducted in 2020. November 6-30. During the investigation, 1004 Lithuanian residents (aged 18 years and over) were interviewed by personal interviews and 113 sampling points were taken. The composition of the respondents corresponds to the composition of the Lithuanian population aged 18 years or over by sex, age, nationality and type of settlement. The opinion of the respondents shows the opinion of the Lithuanian population aged 18 and over. The error of the research results is up to 3.1 percent.
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