The famous German virologist – on the fight against COVID-19: everything has changed since spring

Mr Streeck, a member of several national and international expert commissions, hopes that his position will also be seriously discussed in the Federal Ministry of Health.

Statistics on new coronavirus infections, provided by RKI, the Robert Koch Institute for Infectious Diseases, have become a daily ritual in the country. In August, the number of infections increased again: up to a thousand, even up to two thousand infections a day. However, these statistics lack essential information: they do not indicate what proportion of those infected are seriously ill or at least experience some symptoms.

The anticipated threat of a pandemic is not reflected in September 7. According to published statistics from the health insurance fund, a smaller number of people received a certificate of incapacity to work this year than last year, and only a very small number of people were diagnosed with COVID-19: 0.3 in March, 0.7 in April and 0 in June. 2 percent of all residents who have received a certificate of sick leave.

The virus is not as dangerous as it was thought in spring

While the number of severe COVID-19 cases and coronavirus-related deaths is declining, politicians continue to urge people not to relax, speaking of the second wave already emerging.

Professor H. Streeck is one of those scientists who considers the means of controlling the coronavirus exaggerated. The most important indicator of the danger of the virus is mortality, that is, the probability that a person infected with the virus will die, he explains. RKI estimates the mortality from identified infections, resulting in 4.5 percent. mortality rate.

However, the number of undiagnosed infections can be multiplied by ten. With this in mind, some German epidemiologists estimate that mortality ranges from 0.1 to 0.2 percent, Streeck notes. His own study of the coronavirus in the district of Hainsberg, where the first outbreak of COVID-19 occurred in the country, revealed that mortality does not exceed 0.37 a. C.

“Every death is a tragedy,” says Streeck. – However, it should not be forgotten that an average of 2,500 people die every day in Germany, and more in spring and autumn than in summer. So far, mortality is not expected to be higher this year. “

Provide a coronavirus stoplight

Instead of daily statistics of those infected with coronavirus (Sars-CoV-2), H. Streeck proposes to provide the number of seriously ill COVID-19 cases. After all, infection with a virus does not mean illness at all.

“Asymptomatic infections do not have negative consequences for a person. In this pandemic, we have to be concerned about seriously ill people who receive treatment in hospitals or even intensive care units. That is why I propose a traffic light principle that focuses not only on the number of infected patients, but also the number of COVID-19 patients treated in hospitals, “the researcher told the regional daily Fuldaer Zeitung at the end of August.

“If, in addition to the number of infections that we need to control, of course, the number of hospitalized patients reaches a certain threshold, a yellow or red traffic light will turn on. And this, in turn, would force appropriate measures to be taken. We have 30,000 intensive care beds. If 10,000 of them were occupied, the yellow light would turn on, if 20,000 – red, ”H. Streeck presented his concept, adding that the coronavirus traffic light in Germany is currently green.

Offers a “culture of provision” instead of a “culture of prohibition”

When asked how he evaluated the efforts of the country’s politicians to curb the spread of the coronavirus, H. Streeck pointed to an early stage in which the virus had received little research.

“There was danger and I understand that the federal government did the right thing in this situation. But now the danger has been replaced by risk. It is a serious risk, but from a statistical point of view, it is very small for an individual,” says the researcher.

Streeck says he wants to help society return to “a new normal life, moving from a culture of prohibition to a culture of provision.”

“I think it would be enough to remind people to be alert, but still more or less capable of doing what is important to them. Instead of threatening a finger and sharing bans, we should look for pragmatic solutions. In addition, you will have to say goodbye to the desire to avoid all infections. We will never be able to do it. So we need to develop concepts that allow events to be organized in a way that does not become a hotbed of infections, ”the 43-year-old researcher told t-online.de.

Once the concept has been presented by the event organizers, it is necessary to test it and find a solution on how and what can be done, not what cannot be done. “We need to recover this part of our lives”, it is especially important to know that “we will have to live with the coronavirus for the next few years, just like we live with other infections.”

About grandparents and children

Streeck calls for an easier look at the coronavirus. “We must carefully consider whether we, as a society, have the right to prohibit seeing the grandchildren in the last days of her life of a ninety-year-old grandmother who suffered from World War II and made many risky decisions in her life,” we can only advise you. Be careful, a scientist evaluating the ban on visiting residents of nursing homes and nursing homes.

He is also skeptical about excessive restrictions in kindergartens and schools, which he believes cannot become hot spots for the virus. True, he says he understands the anxiety of some parents, but he recalled that, for example, in the Netherlands, where kindergartens for 300,000 to 400,000 children had been opened many months ago, there had been no outbreaks of infection. And most studies in Germany, according to Streeck, show that children are less contagious than adults.

“Go study and work!” He urged people in a recent interview with Die Welt, Winich Churchill’s grandson Sir Nicholas Soames, who was not surprised by the intimidation of today’s society. “Even during the blitzkrieg, we weren’t that locked up at home,” he said.

The Minister of Health is already admitting mistakes

Current developments in coronavirus infections and COVID-19 mortality do not provide a basis for horror scenarios. “Sober virologists like Streeck warn people not to whip themselves with the whips of fear, because fear can do a lot of harm,” concludes Ulf Poschardt, editor-in-chief of Die Welt.

And the federal Minister of Health, Jens Spahn, has already recognized in recent days that some restrictive measures were unnecessary.

“Based on current knowledge, I can tell you that you will no longer have to close hair salons or shops. This will not happen a second time. And we will no longer prohibit people from visiting nursing homes,” he said.

In April, when the threat appeared to be much greater than later became apparent, the minister spoke important and honorable words: “In a few months, we will probably have to apologize.”