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We are publishing an informative review published on the website of the magazine “Ukraine Week” in 2020. July 31 The review was prepared by Roman Burko, founder of the international volunteer community InformNapalm.
There is not a week without information on hybrid attacks by Russian special services against sovereign states. In an earlier review, we noted the scandal surrounding the possible involvement of Russian special services and the government in the financing of terrorism in Afghanistan and the display of Russian force along Ukraine’s borders. And two weeks ago, a scandal broke out about Russian intelligence hackers trying to steal research on COVID-19 vaccines and treatments from academic and pharmaceutical institutions around the world. This week we see a sequel to some of the tracks.
EU sanctions on Russian GRU employees
July 30 The EU has imposed sanctions on four Russian thieves who work in the General Board of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (the former name of this intelligence structure, the Russian GRU, is better known). European sanctions have been imposed on Russian GRU staff Alexei Morenec, Alexei Minin, Oleg Sotnikov and Yevgeny Serebriakov, who were also previously suspected of operations in the United States, the Netherlands, Brazil, Malaysia and Switzerland. In addition, the EU has imposed sanctions on the well-known GRU structure, the Central Special Technology Center of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces.
According to the report, individual workers and entire intelligence units from the Russian Federation that have come under new EU sanctions have been involved in attacks against the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, known as WannaCry and Cloud Hopper attacks, as well as in the well-known cyberattack in Ukraine. using the NotPetya virus. Remember that in 2017. In Ukraine, the victims of the Russian NotPetya virus were finance, energy, telecommunications, media and government agencies. In particular, the victims include Boryspol Airport, Ukrpočta, Ukrtelekom, the Ministry of Infrastructure of Ukraine and others.
And how can we not recall here the interview with the former commander of the United States Armed Forces in Europe, an expert from the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), Lieutenant General Ben (Hodges). Ben Hodges then pointed out that if the Kremlin decides to launch a new offensive against Ukraine, we should expect powerful cyberattacks aimed at destroying communication and control systems. Volunteers from the InformNapalm community have translated this interview into 12 world languages.
Belarus on target in Russia
photo from informnapalm.org
But this week, the world spoke about Russia’s full and part-time GRU employees beyond the topic of cyberattacks.
July 29 In Belarus, 33 citizens of the Russian Federation belonging to the Russian private military company (PKB) Wagner, which is used by the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces for illegal military operations abroad, were arrested. PKB Wagner has been actively used in Ukraine, Syria, Libya and other military conflicts. Furthermore, Belarusian special services said it was just one part of a group of 200 people who came to the country to destabilize the situation during the elections.
Read also (in Russian): “How the culture of military personnel commissioned PKB Wagner: questionnaires, passports, combat receipts”
The website of the international intelligence community, InformNapalm, has published numerous studies on this mercenary hybrid structure, which carries out the dirty tasks of the Kremlin, led by Russian intelligence. Russia’s special services have tried to cover up this failure by scandalizing the misinformation. Even “heavy artillery” had to be used: Dmitry Peskov, the Russian president’s press secretary, and Dmitry Mezencev, the Russian ambassador to Belarus, commented on the situation. The latter even presented his fantastic version of the reasons for Wagner’s mercenary stay at the Belorusočka sanatorium near Minsk. He explained that the alleged Russian mercenaries are ordinary guards who were in transit in Minsk, but they missed the plane to Turkey and were forced to stay temporarily in the sanatorium. This version is not convincing in many ways. One can only imagine how the Turkish special services would have reacted if the entire platoon of PKB Vagner had arrived in their country. After all, the Turkish army in Libya successfully destroyed these Russian units as drones of its attack and regarded Wagner’s mercenaries as its immediate enemies.
July 30 The website of the international intelligence community InformNapalm published two studies that completely refuted this Russian version.
The TOP 9 facts about what the Russian mercenary group of the private military company Wagner in Belarus actually did in Belarus lay out in detail the facts that neutralize the clumsy attempts of the Russian side to justify the presence of its mercenaries in another country. Those arrested include people with a bloody streak of involvement in the war against Ukraine, as well as in military missions in the Middle East and Africa.
photo from informnapalm.org
An English-language report on Russia’s intervention in the Belarusian elections by analysts from the Institute for Research on Global Threat and Democracy (IGTDS) found that detained PKB Wagner mercenaries, including snipers with combat experience, could indicate that the Kremlin was preparing destabilization scenarios by shooting. to the peaceful protests that may take place in the context of the elections in Belarus. This scenario is very similar to the events on Maidan in 2014. February. Russia’s main goal, if implemented, is to introduce a “military peacekeeping contingent” that would supposedly stabilize the situation and implement the Belarusian “morgue”.
Denis Ivashin, editor of the Belarusian version of InformNapalm, posted an interesting map on his Facebook page commenting that the Belarusian sanatorium where the Russian saboteurs were detained was on the shores of the Drozdy lagoon, just 5,200 meters from the Belarusian presidential residence . The uncoordinated location of Russian mercenaries and snipers near Lukashenko’s residence could have spooked the President of Belarus, sparked his harsh reaction to Russian actions, and caused the events to be shown to the public.
photo from informnapalm.org
And here it should be emphasized that, in this case, Belarus is behaving quite transparently and surprisingly adequately, which refutes the theory of the alleged joint special operation of the special services of Russia and Belarus, which “should raise Alexander’s qualifications. Lukashenko on the eve of elections “. Firstly, it is unlikely that these events will persuade Lukashenko’s opponents, and secondly, it is doubtful that the pro-Russian people will suddenly change their positive attitude towards the “Russian world”, given that there are outspoken “Vatnik” leaders who support the Crimean annexes.
Reports of the arrest of PKB Wagner employees on Belarus’ central TV channels have already had a significant impact on Russia’s foreign policy image. The world has once again seen Russia as an aggressive country that can use mercenaries even against its closest allies. The Belarusians published a video of the arrest of a group of Russian mercenaries, showed their passports, credentials with personal numbers of PKB Wagner, and summoned the ambassadors of the Russian Federation and Ukraine. Ukrainian diplomats were invited not because some detainees have not only Russian but also Ukrainian passports, but with the aim of informing Ukraine about the situation and seeking help from our country. After all, the detained fighters will be inspected for their criminal activities in Ukraine during the aggression in Donbass.
photo from informnapalm.org
However, this story has only just begun to evolve and there may still be surprises. Belarusian special services (perhaps thanks to their Western counterparts, given that US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo made his first official visit to Belarus in February 2020 and declared his support for the country’s sovereignty) detained a large group of militants who worked for the Russian army. intelligence. The United States is closely monitoring the actions of the Russian GRU and periodically imposing sanctions on individuals and entities financially associated with PKB Wagner. The NATO countries do not want tensions on their borders that could spread from Belarus to the Baltic countries. Therefore, the local success of the Belarusian special services may not be accidental, but publicity in the media, not caused by Lukashenko’s fears, but a pragmatically calculated use of the media to combat Russian aggression.
Will this scandal stop Putin’s plans to destabilize the situation in Belarus? Will the arrest of one of Wagner’s mercenary groups force him to withdraw the remaining mercenaries and delay the attack? We do not know yet. However, it must be remembered that the occupation of Belarus not only opens a space for Russia to move to the west, but also gives it a springboard for attacks against Ukraine from the north, so we are paying close attention to these. developments in the neighboring country. Other scenarios of destabilization or aggression by Belarus against Ukraine are not ruled out if Putin decides to act as va-bank.
Donbass: Peace before the storm
photo from informnapalm.org
Meanwhile, the issue of Russian aggression in Donbass has faded into the background. The Ukrainian president tries once again to assure everyone that a “regime of silence” is possible, although he already recognizes that Russia cannot “just stop shooting” and that violations still exist. Recall that during the meeting of the OSCE Permanent Council, Ukraine informed the international community about the progress of similar ceasefires since 2019. July 21 to 2020 July 26 At that time, the armed forces of the Russian Federation committed 4226 violations of the ceasefire.
However, shooting is not the only instrument of hybrid aggression. At the moment, there were definitely fewer of them in Donbass, but this is only because there is a replenishment of ammunition from the Russian Federation. July 30 The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine has sent to Russia a protest note against a new “humanitarian convoy” that has illegally entered Donbass. These “humanitarian convoys” from Russia sometimes secretly, without much publicity, and sometimes openly, transport “food or medicine” to the people of Donbass, but there are suspicions that weapons, ammunition and soldiers are transported under the guise of this. InformNapalm volunteers have repeatedly written about this in their research. Soldiers from the 108th Airborne Regiment of the Russian Federation were found to be part of the Donbass “humanitarian convoy”. Thus, one of the soldiers of the 22nd Special Forces Brigade of the Russian GRU, who participated in the capture of Crimea, was warned as part of “humanitarian convoys”.
Therefore, another ceasefire is not a basis for hope to resolve the conflict and end the war, but only an opportunity for the RF armed forces to replenish ammunition and prepare for the next stage of escalation. of the conflict in Ukraine.
Read more – informnapalm.org/lt.
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