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The balance of the pandemic in the country is very fragile, said the presidential chief at a press conference. advisor Simon Crash.
According to him, on the one hand, the prevalence of mutations and the mobility of people are increasing, which accelerates the growth of infections. Vaccination, on the other hand, is effective, and practices in other countries where more people have been vaccinated show that vaccines are very effective in managing a pandemic.
“They greatly reduce the risk of hospitalization, the prevalence of asymptomatic forms and the development of immunity after the first dose of the vaccine. Therefore, it was emphasized that it is necessary to accelerate vaccination and the Minister of Health has confirmed that vaccination will start on weekends, and the President strongly supports this initiative, ”said S. Krėpšta.
According to the president’s adviser, the spread of the coronavirus in hospitals is increasingly rare. Compared to December and March, there were 70 times fewer infections among doctors. This shows that vaccines are really effective.
A certificate of immunity was also discussed. According to S. Krėpšta, the President supports this idea and asks the European Commission to take decisions as soon as possible.
“This is a way to safely unlock the economic and social life of the country. This certificate is expected to start on a large scale in early summer,” reported S. Krėpšta.
According to the adviser to the head of state, states should consult as much as possible before making decisions about border control.
“The president supports the idea that European countries should consult as much as possible before taking action on border controls. The European Council will also discuss how to find common solutions, as they would work much more efficiently and ensure easier movement. between borders, if entrepreneurs need it, ”said S. Krėpšta.
The presidential adviser highlighted the need to control the number of infections.
“There has not been a specific discussion on tightening quarantines, but it is clear here that it is necessary to control the number of infections, as infections lead to serious infections and deaths. And if infections are increasing, of course, it will they should consider additional measures. If they grow dangerously, it becomes even more important, “said S. Krėpšta.
Lithuania lags behind other EU countries according to vaccination of the elderly population
Lithuania lags behind other European Union (EU) countries in terms of vaccinating the country’s oldest population; so far, only 36 percent have been vaccinated. of this group of people and according to this indicator, the country ranks 18th in the EU, said a presidential adviser quoted by BNS.
“We talk a lot about vaccination and its acceleration and targeting, because vaccination is the real key that can unlock both the limitations of quarantine and our social and economic life in general. We have also noticed in this regard that among the elderly population, of 80 years and over, only 36 percent of them have been vaccinated in Lithuania and in this sense we are really far behind other European Union countries, we are only eighteen in the European Union. “, – at the press conference Post-Health, an expert panel said Tuesday.
“In other words, we are vaccinating much faster than more precisely, and it is in this place that we really need to intensify contact with the elderly population, because not all elderly residents are explicitly invited to get vaccinated,” said the president’s adviser. .
According to S. Krėpšta, the example of countries like the United Kingdom shows that the number of emergencies after vaccination of the elderly population is significantly reduced.
“Today we have about 90 thousand unused vaccines and their use is really very important and no less important in terms of managing the pandemic than changes in the quarantine regime,” he said.
Presented three scenarios
Members of the Board of Experts presented scenarios for the spread of the pandemic on Tuesday.
“Today we present to the President our calculations on possible epidemiological scenarios in Lithuania. We have presented what would have happened if we had, we are not saying that this is certainly the case, but what could be expected in the near future. We have presented 3 scenarios: optimistic, moderate and pessimistic. In the optimistic scenario, we will see a small increase in cases in the near future, and we are already seeing it. We could expect between 500 and 600 cases a day, “said the professor at the University of Health Sciences from Lithuania. M. Stankūnas.
In mid-April, according to the optimistic scenario, Lithuania should move to a decline.
“But we don’t really expect a drop like January and February. This scenario is, in our opinion, highly desirable but unlikely. Unless additional quarantine measures are implemented that work,” said the expert.
According to the professor, the average scenario shows an increase in cases in Lithuania, which may exceed the limit of 1000 cases per day in mid-April.
“This scenario is more likely, perhaps within the margin of error, but it is more likely if the current situation persists. Although it seems like an increase, we think it would be a very good option, considering all the circumstances and other countries ”, said the professor.
According to the pessimistic scenario, according to M. Stankūnas, the third wave can be seen in April: “It can be really big and equal in size to the situation in December. According to our preliminary estimates, it could reach 3,000 new cases per day. This scenario is likely, if the British strain becomes absolutely dominant, it will show that it is much more contagious than the predominant strain now, and mobility will increase. However, we still believe that we can avoid this scenario. I think the race against time starts now. It is vital for us to win a part of the vaccinated population as soon as possible. “
So far, the experts only have forecasts until May.
“We did the calculation until May, because doing a long-term calculation can be a big distortion factor. The information is still very volatile. If there were an optimistic scenario, we would not see a decline until May. It will probably also increase in May, “said the professor about the new cases and their decline. M. Stankūnas.
There is still little knowledge about the new infected breed.
On Tuesday, Ingrida Šimonytė reported 2 cases when a new African strain of coronavirus was found in Lithuania. Teacher. Stankūnas says that knowledge is concerning because, according to the World Health Organization, this strain is 1.5 times more contagious than the current one. It is also unclear how vaccines against this strain will work.
One person infected with the African strain is from Kaunas County and the other is from Vilnius.
The specialist also identified the main risks in the press conference.
“We have an increasing prevalence of the British variety, which is much more contagious,” it is said to be between 40 and 90 percent. has higher infectivity. As the quarantine tightens, people have more contacts, communicate and meet. This creates easier conditions for the spread of the virus, “said Prof. M. Stankūnas.
Hospitals are preparing for various scenarios
Aušra Motiejūnienė, Director of Management of the Santara Clinics of Vilnius University Hospital, reported that they have been monitoring the growth in the number of cystic patients for about a week.
“We have been increasing the number of beds for a week and the number of patients is growing. It is not drastically high, but compared to a couple of weeks earlier, it is higher.
We currently have about 70 percent of employees. resuscitation beds. Even a couple of weeks ago, it was 55 percent. We have more complex cases. The number of active treatment beds had to be increased and we have 80 percent. employment, ”said A. Motiejūnienė.
According to a representative from the Santara clinics, between 25 and 35 new COVID-19 patients enter hospitals in the region every day.
“I want to remind you that moderate and severe patients are hospitalized,” said A. Motiejūnienė.
A spokeswoman for the hospital assured them that they were preparing for all possible scenarios.
“It just came to our notice then. We have plans, we have had a second wave where we probably had the maximum number of beds possible. Our Safe Hospital theory is that we must correctly identify, reduce risk and prevent possible outbreaks. We have also anticipated where in the region could we expand the number of beds. We have a plan (…) and we already have newly opened subdivisions not only in Vilnius, “said A. Motiejūnienė.
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