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As the specialist said after the meeting of the expert council with the president, we are living in a moment when the race against time begins, because the optimistic scenario still does not seem very realistic.
“We have presented three scenarios: optimistic, average and pessimistic. In the optimistic scenario, we will see a slight increase in new cases in the near future, we are already seeing it and it is likely that this will continue. In terms of the average number of cases, we could expect around 500-600 cases per day and it should start to decline in mid-April.
However, as we would like, we don’t really expect the kind of decline that we saw in January, February. In our opinion, this scenario is highly desirable, but unlikely, unless some additional quarantine measures are introduced, ”explained the professor.
The medium scenario shows an increase in cases in Lithuania, which may exceed the threshold of 1000 cases per day in mid-April.
“This scenario is more likely if the current situation persists. Although this would seem like an increase, it would still be a good option considering all the circumstances, evaluating the situation in other countries,” said M. Stankūnas.
A pessimistic scenario was also calculated. According to him, the third wave of coronavirus is seen in April.
“It can be really big, which can be the same as in December. According to preliminary estimates, it could go up to 3,000 new cases per day. This scenario is likely if the British strain becomes absolutely dominant, proving to be much more contagious,” he said. .
An increase in cases is observed
At the same time, the researcher reported that the growth of new cases has been observed around the world since mid-February.
“More than 3 million people have been diagnosed worldwide in the last week. New cases, 60 thousand. Deaths. Therefore, an increase is visible as of February 15. In the past, there has been a decrease since the new year, and now the growth is visible again, ”he said.
Most – 80 percent. New cases are identified in Europe and the US Looking at the Baltic region, it can be seen that the most difficult situation is in Estonia, Poland.
“Lithuania still looks good, but the situation is changing. We are seeing an increase in the number of new cases detected and 885 cases were detected yesterday. This is the largest number since January 28” – said M. Stankūnas.
At the same time, he found that the effective reproductive size of the virus is already above 1, which means that the epidemic is spreading.
“He crossed that important threshold on March 12,” the expert added.
Skip of cases in Lithuania
In the last day, 855 new cases of COVID-19 were identified in the country, 12 people died from this infectious disease, the Department of Statistics reported on Tuesday.
On the last day, 6,910 molecular tests (PCR) and 1,159 of antigens to the presumed coronavirus were carried out in the country.
The rate of new illnesses in the last 14 days is 100,000. the population reaches 260.2 cases. The proportion of positive diagnostic tests in the past seven days is 6.8 percent.
In Lithuania, since the start of the pandemic, COVID-19 has affected 210 thousand people. 208 people.
Statistically recovered and currently 195 thousand live. 115 people, declared – 151 thousand. 721 recovered. Statistically, there are currently 7,429 sick people, the declared number of patients is 50 thousand. 823.
A total of 3501 people died in Lithuania from COVID-19. 7082 deaths have been linked to this infectious disease, directly and indirectly.
The first dose of COVID-19 was administered to 6,099 people last day and the second dose to 1280 people. A total of 281 thousand people were vaccinated with the first dose in the country. 871 people, in both doses – 126 thousand. 143 people.
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