The expert predicts that in autumn we will meet a thousand. COVID-19 cases per day: we couldn’t avoid the virus

On Thursday, the Department of Statistics announced that the number of new COVID-19 infections last day was 193.

“70-80 percent. Weekly growth, and these figures are in line with growth. We have a delta variant that is much more widespread, we have seen it in other countries, now it has reached Lithuania. If nothing changes, the number of cases will increase; there is always a small possibility that there is an influence here, but I think we can forget it here.

Cases are going to grow, now we have an average of about 100 cases a week, we can reach more than 1000 by September, the last week of August, if we count purely arithmetic. math.

Therefore, according to V. Zemlio-Balevičius, it is necessary to closely monitor the situation and assess to what extent hospital occupation can continue.

“It just came to our knowledge then. The question is how much smaller and how long do we have. (…) According to data from last year, in three months, according to official data, about 100,000 people fell ill. People, we can say more informally. , and that was enough to have more than 2,000 patients in hospitals.

“If we now have the effects of vaccination, about half of our population has been vaccinated, broadly speaking, we can estimate that we need twice as many people to generate the same numbers,” he said.

The UK made this calculation, provided by V. Zemlys-Balevičius. They speculate that hospitals will no longer be overcrowded for them, but the vaccination rate there is higher.

“These are games with numbers. It should be noted that there is a lot of uncertainty: I have calculated here with my fingers. To calculate accurately, there is more uncertainty, which requires monitoring the situation and making decisions accordingly,” said the expert.

We do not pass the virus

When asked if current trends basically show that we “failed” to evade the virus, V. Zemlys-Balevičius confirmed this and compared the situation with a well-known analogy.

“It just came to our knowledge then. The virus attacks us as travelers in winter. Once again. It has been a virus for more than a year and a half, but it still spreads unexpectedly. If we take the same analogy with travelers and winter “It has already settled in Vilnius in recent years, only in this case we must follow the weather forecasts and make the appropriate decisions. The same goes for combat. Unfortunately, these lessons are likely to be learned painfully,” admitted the researcher.

He pointed out that part of the population is not vaccinated and is not convinced by any argument.

“Unfortunately, a person learns best through personal experience. Last year, I was perhaps more optimistic, thinking that maybe we could stop the virus. Of course, we now have vaccines. This reappearance of the population does not seem so terrible – now the strategy should probably be to stretch the whole disease process so that everyone gets sick and the hospitals are not overcrowded, ”commented V. Zemlys-Balevičius.

Offer to communicate clearly: it is worth returning to the Passport of Opportunities

Speaking of another quarantine, the expert emphasized that no one wants it, neither the government nor the people, so according to the data scientist, if the quarantine is not introduced, the contacts can be reduced by re-enabling the Passport of Opportunities.

“It would be good if both the Ministry of Health and the Government said clearly what the plan is now. What can we do?” Return the Passport of Opportunity, because reducing contacts is still the key to managing this epidemic, “said a scientist of Euromonitor International data.

V. Zemlys-Balevičius gave a simple example.

“We have two parts of the population: those who are least likely to spread the virus are vaccinated and those who are more likely to spread the virus and have the same incidence rates. (…) We need to reduce the contacts of those who can blow that huge fire and keep that spread. A passport of opportunity is a tool that would allow you to do that, “he explained.

“First, we must protect the people who have the most contact: all contact activities. And then everyone else has to take care of themselves, but if we talk about the risks that are greater for the unvaccinated, we need to create incentives for them to unvaccinated people are vaccinated or do not have the opportunity to spread the virus. ”continued the specialist.

He described all crisis management as a game of probabilities.

“You have to keep in mind that people have their own reaction to all decisions and, sometimes, waiting for a reaction, they can get a completely different one. Psychology is already emerging here, but it is a field of other people. The point is that we have to communicate so that people understand what awaits us and how they can decide not to have it, then accept it much more calmly ”, added V. Zemlys-Balevičius.

The vaccine will be delivered practically to the door

Last week, the vaccination coordinator of the city of Vilnius, Kipras Krasauskas Delphi reported that due to a significant decrease in the number of people who wanted to be vaccinated, around 5,000 people had to be used in the capital. Modern vaccine dose.

Similarly, he said, it could happen in the future with vaccines from other manufacturers. You can read the full commentary by K. Krasauskas here.

The Litexpo vaccination center will be closed from August, but vaccination buses will start operating in the capital on Wednesday. They will operate indefinitely, lead to various densely populated areas of Vilnius, close to businesses.

“We started first with ‘Vilnius Public Transport’ and the Antakalnis district. Vaccination buses are open to all residents, both those who live nearby and those who pass by can stop,” said K. Krasauskas at the conference of press.