The European Union, Poland and Hungary: food first: morale will wait

What do you think about the fight for democratic values ​​and the rule of law? None of the most popular candidates escaped this issue before the EP elections last year.

Politicians around the world, including Germany, have called on the EU to take legal action against Orban Hungary, which is no longer generally recognized as a democracy, and Kaczynski’s Hungary.

Still, France agrees with Poland, but even Emmanuel Macron has called out for German Chancellor Merkel to take a hard line and repel anti-liberals and the challenge of authoritarianism in Eastern Europe.

The headlines appeared in the media about the legal proceedings initiated by the European Commission and the threats to deprive them of the right to vote. But today it is already clear that neither Fidesz nor the Law and Justice Party (PiS) have withdrawn an inch in all those months.

Why? There is more than one reason. It is clear that at a time when the coronavirus pandemic has not yet subsided and the economy urgently needs to be moved by agreeing on an EU budget and recovery plan, no rule of law is already a priority.

Furthermore, the European Commission and its leadership have changed, and the Visegrad Four have strategically supported the candidacy of Ursula von der Leyen, having heard almost certainly with certainty that there will be a withdrawal of these countries beforehand.

Finally, the EU presidency has changed since July. Germany does not seem ready, as if she were a kindergarten teacher, to specifically educate Poland and Hungary.

Warsaw and Budapest are withdrawing

Hooks, of course, they are. On Tuesday, after the European Council negotiations, it was announced out loud that EU leaders had agreed for the first time to link the payment of funds from EU funds to members of the bloc, provided that countries must comply with the rules. legal regulations of the EU.

An important change is the detail of the agreement, which states that any reduction in benefits could be approved by a qualified majority of EU members. In other words, a single veto would no longer suffice.

However, both Poland and Hungary welcome such a commitment, as if it were not a commitment.

The Visegrad Four strategically supported Ursula von der Leyen’s candidacy last year, of course, after having heard almost certainly before there would be a withdrawal from these countries.

And probably not, because the details of the rule system have not yet been approved by the EU Council. And that means that Warsaw and Budapest will be able to veto them. There is no doubt that these members would do the same, and Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki added: “We are protected on all sides.”

“The rule of law is mentioned in the agreement, but in the abstract. But what she would want to say in the event of a vote, I do not know, there are still many procedural questions,” admitted Linas Kojala, director of the Center for European Studies. from the east.

In December 2017, the European Commission initiated proceedings against Poland under Article 7 of the EU Treaty, which ultimately allowed a Member State to be deprived of the right to vote. In 2018, the European Parliament launched the same process with regard to Hungary.

However, the situation has changed over the past year and a half, and there have been signs of a withdrawal from Warsaw and Budapest, especially at the last summit.

The fight for democracy and the rule of law, boldly launched by U. von der Leyen’s predecessor, Jean-Claude Juncker, is temporary or not, but it has been breathed out.

The German U. von der Leyen was not elected president of the Commission without the votes of the Polish and Hungarian conservatives, and has been communicating with these countries cautiously but much friendlier since then.

“The leadership of the Commission has changed, and the Polish rulers decided to go with the European People’s Party at a crucial moment.” So dividends are now being collected.

It is also important that Frans Timmermans, who was the great engine of these processes, no longer plays such an important role. He also promised to deal with bad Poland and Hungary during his election campaign.

He is now replaced by a Commissioner from the Czech Republic, the Visegrad Four. ” 15 minutes said Marijuš Antonovič, a political scientist at the Institute for International Relations and Political Science at the Vilnius University.

Germany now holds the EU presidency, but Merkel is reluctant to speak about the rule of law.

What did G.Nausėda say?

This was evidenced by the priorities announced by Berlin for the second half of 2020, which do not mention Poland and Hungary at all.

It is true that the German government has expressed its commitment to uphold the common values ​​of the EU: “We will work hard to strengthen core values ​​and promote a constructive approach to the rule of law.”

But this is not a priority for Berlin. This formal rule of law statement was just one of many, and was issued only after similar statements about agriculture and consumer protection.

Furthermore, Germany no longer seems to want to thank specific countries. In contrast, the 27 members of the EU are now called to “participate on an equal footing in the political dialogue on the rule of law”; in other words, all countries are invited to try it.

The new instrument “Review of Core Values” was developed by the German Minister for European Affairs, Michael Roth, Social Democrat, and the EU Commissioner for Justice, Didier Reynders.

The objective of the mechanism is to improve the current order and simply build bridges between East and West, and not only Poland, Hungary or Romania, but also Germany itself will have the opportunity to speak about values ​​or the rule of law.

By the way, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda, who participated in the EU Summit, probably tried to talk about such an innovative approach.

He stated that “although today we pose this problem in the context of Poland and Hungary, that issue could arise in any EU country.”

Clearly, the problem is that the damage to democracy in Hungary or Poland, where judicial reform has been carried out and where nationalized public television TVP broadcasts the propaganda of the rulers, has already been done. But it looks like a clean sheet is being translated.

“The Polish press says: Poland and Hungary now, but the issue of the rule of law may be related to corruption in Bulgaria and Romania, with the mafia in Italy and with Spain’s decision to capture Catalan separatists across Europe.”

Other countries may also fear that the principles of the rule of law will also be discussed in relation to them, ”said M. Antonovič.

L. Kojala agreed: “Poland and Hungary always emphasize that they are wrongly distinguished from other EU members. Naturally, Warsaw wants that. “

Andrzej Pukszto, a professor at Vytautas Magnus University, noted that Slovenia, Portugal and Latvia joined the Polish side in terms of the rule of law in Brussels.

Dropped the hot potato

The fact that Germany’s position has changed cannot be surprising. Berlin has talked a lot about democracy and the rule of law for many years, but are these things suddenly no longer interesting?

Let’s say Germany supported the European Commission’s proposal to link EU financial support to the rule of law, but the very content of the agreement, which basically closes the problems in the drawer for the time being, shows that Merkel does not want robust procedures.

Nor is it about a fair distribution of refugees among EU members. When Hungary and Poland refused to accept asylum seekers in 2015, Merkel insisted on the need for a “European solution”.

Merkel has simply repeated her fingernails in Eastern Europe and does not want additional problems, at least during this half year of the German presidency.

But now the German chancellor wants to leave this hot potato on someone else, in this case, the European Commission.

Why? It seems that Merkel has simply brushed her nails in Eastern Europe more than once and does not want additional problems, at least during these six months during the German Presidency of the EU.

And the interim president of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, does not want passions either. He previously spoke out against the expulsion of the Hungarian ruling party Fidesz from the European People’s Party (PPE) bloc in the European Parliament.

According to analysts, these maneuvers weaken the liberal and moderate European right, even the head of the PPE, Donald Tusk, has been unable to cross the line drawn in Berlin. But the fact is that without the support of the CDU, the EPP cannot, in principle, move.

Weapons are reddened, plus it’s not time to take them out

In the Brussels corridors, the issue of the relationship of Poland and Hungary with democracy is now simply being relegated to the background. I also 15 minutes communicated with L. Kojala.

“We are likely to return to this issue in the future. The current negotiations have been so complex, so far-reaching, that there is even more divergence that could ruin the entire agreement. <...>It was too complicated, “said L. Kojala.

And indeed, at a time when there is an urgent need to revive the continent’s economy, the EU probably does not have time to deal with the grimace of democracy in Poland or Hungary.

However, it is also important that the Community is forced to realize that it has very few weapons in the fight against nepotism and breaches of the rule of law, and that these weapons are also weakened.

This was most evident at the start of the legal proceedings against Warsaw and Budapest. Both cases are unsuccessful, in particular because the “nuclear measures”, the deprivation of rights of the European Council, which in theory can be applied, are not really desired by anyone.

The Community seems to be forced to realize that it has very few weapons in the fight against nepotism and breaches of the rule of law, and that these weapons are also weak.

For this reason, the procedure provided for in Article 7 of the TEU has never left the stage of non-binding hearings. Furthermore, even such debates have been counterproductive to many.

And after one of those meetings, the German Minister for European Affairs, M. Roth, admitted: “This procedure appears to be a means for the West to blackmail the East.” True, he immediately emphasized that this is not the case.

“It just came to our attention then. No one wants to worry about the things that would further divide Europe at a time when there are so many divisive dilemmas: brexite, COVID-19, China, United States.

The rule of law is practically pushed aside, and the raising of a yellow or red flag in the Council has never been acceptable to many countries. ” 15 minutes L. Kojala said.

Europe is everything we want it to be

Yes, for now, Europe has enough new budget and life skills with and after a pandemic. It is true that some have asked if Hungary and Poland have changed their support for the economic recovery plan in silence for the greats about the rule of law. The threats to issue a veto were in fact.

The dilemma can present itself more drastically. It seems that Europe has decided to listen to the comment once made by the German playwright Bertolt Brecht: “First the food, then the morality”.

L. Kojala: Europe is as much as all the EU countries agree. As a result, the Community is not always effective, but the EU is not a superpower and its structures have limited powers.

“Given the pandemic, I do not think that either von der Leyen or Michel (President of the European Council, ed.) Would like to start their mandates from major conflicts.

Also, working in pandemic conditions. We may have a second wave ahead and remember that the EU reacted slowly to the first in the spring. This is the right thing to do, because the economic recovery plan really needed to be adopted. ” 15 minutes A.Pukszto said.

On the other hand, Antonovič recalls: “The Germans and the French are well aware that the affairs of Poland and Hungary will not disappear, that they will not be pushed aside.

Now for Germany and France, the most important thing is to find modus vivendi. At least Merkel and Orban have found it great modus vivdendi “They agree perfectly in person.”

“The last decade has shown that EU countries want to act together. Europe is as far away as all EU countries agree. As a result, the Community is not always effective, but the EU is not a superstate and its structures have limited competition, ”added L. Kojala.