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The statement to be issued at the EU-Western Balkans summit on 6 October has been debated. Reuters calls this a sign that the Community is postponing the goal of integrating Serbia, Kosovo, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Albania and northern Macedonia.
At the summit, the EU planned to reiterate the promise made 18 years ago to “support the European perspective of the Western Balkans”.
In fact, those words are in the draft of a future declaration, but, according to Reuters, they have not been approved in two rounds of negotiations, despite the fact that all six countries in the region are candidate countries for the EU.
A blow to Lithuanian foreign policy
The EU member states do not reveal their positions, but the rich countries of the north – Denmark, the Netherlands, France – do not want 2007 to happen again, when they believe that Romania and Bulgaria have been admitted into the Community too hastily.
In addition, hundreds of thousands of workers from Eastern European countries, including Lithuania, have invaded the UK and cracked down on the British against immigration. This issue was one of the highlights of the 2016 Brexit referendum.
For its part, Bulgaria is opposed to the accession of North Macedonia to the Community due to long-standing linguistic differences.
Scanpix / AP photo / Macedonia officially became North Macedonia
Of course, a compromise is still possible, but this stalemate basically means that the EU is freezing its plans to form a ‘circle of friends’ in the Community: the Eastern Partnership countries, for which the news about the Balkans is really bad, Tunisia.
The policy of the Eastern Partnership is extremely important to diplomats in Vilnius. Lithuania has long sought to strengthen the influence of the EU in the six countries participating in the program: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Sakartvele, Moldova and Ukraine.
“The consequences for the eastern partners are bad. If you do not grant membership to countries that already have candidate status, objectively expecting membership will be naive even for those that do not have candidate status.
J. Kulys: This message is a great blow to our country’s foreign policy goals.
It is very disappointing, but from an objective point of view it is a terrible precedent “, 15 minutes said Laurynas Jonavičius, a political scientist at the Institute of International Relations and Political Science at Vilnius University.
Photo by Lukas Balandis / 15min / Laurynas Jonavičius
“This message is a major blow to our country’s foreign policy goals. The collapse of European integration in the Western Balkans will mean even greater difficulties for the Eastern Partnership format and less hope that the EU gate will benefit. someday to Ukraine, Sakartvel or Moldova, “said Justinas Kulys, an analyst at the Center for Eastern European Studies.
Does Lithuania have the opportunity to put pressure on the countries that block the process? According to L. Jonavičius, for the moment “the moral argument will stand.”
“But without changes in the balance of power in the region and given the increasing diversification of interests and the redistribution of priorities among Western countries, this moral argument will remain only rhetorical.” 15 minutes said L. Jonavičius.
Will Russia and China fill the space?
According to analysts, now China and Russia simply cannot do without rubbing their hands: these countries have long drawn the countries of the Balkan region into their sphere of influence. Serbia is in excellent agreement with Moscow and in January became the first European country to introduce a Chinese coronavirus vaccine.
Reuters / Photo by Scanpix / Coronavirus vaccine from Chinese company Sinovac
“It just came to our attention then. In the absence of the European Union in the Western Balkans, Russia, China and other third countries whose policies, investments or other forms of participation do not necessarily coincide with the objectives, values or, in principle, its framework Community legal be more active in the region. ” 15 minutes confirmed J. Kulys.
Meanwhile, diplomats say the EU is indirectly increasing tensions by 20 million. of Balkan citizens, who suffered greatly during the wars of the early 1990s, to become members of the Community.
The pro-enlargement countries – Austria, Italy, Croatia, Slovenia and the Baltic countries – are angry with Germany and France, who are said to be reluctant to put pressure on Bulgaria.
On Monday, NATO troops were due to step up patrols in Kosovo as local Serbs began blocking roads, angered by the ban on Serbian cars with Serbian numbers. Serbia, which does not recognize an independent Kosovo, has in turn launched military exercises near the border.
“To get noticed, these countries must do something wrong.” There are tensions in the Balkans linked to the decrease in focus on EU capitals, “a senior EU diplomat in Brussels told Reuters.
“Scanpix” / AP nuotr./Lenkai taikdariai patruliuoja Kosove
So far, the EU and the US are calling for peace, and the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, took a three-day trip to six Balkan countries to show that the region remains a concern for Brussels.
It is true that the reputation of the EU in the region has been damaged in the past. France and the Netherlands suspended the enlargement process two years ago and it is now blocked by Bulgaria.
According to Reuters sources, the enlargement states (Austria, Italy, Croatia, Slovenia and the Baltic countries) are angry with Germany and France, who allegedly did not want to pressure Bulgaria to lift its veto.
“As long as there are so many member states that, for one reason or another, think that the EU community should not expand, we will really stand still,” said EU integration expert John O’Brennan.
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