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By spring, Bergamo had become a symbol of Italy and later of the European tragedy. There was no longer enough space for coronavirus victims in the city’s cemetery, and photos of military trucks transporting the bodies to other regions of the country spread around the world.
It is currently estimated that around 3,000 people living with coronavirus have died in this city in the Lombardy region alone.
But now, as Italy battles an increasingly aggressive second wave of the virus, Bergamo is shaking up the spring stage, although Lombardy itself has once again become the focus of COVID-19. Why?
ANSA / AFP / Scanpix / Coffins prepared for cremation in the Chapel of Bergamo
Immunity has been extended
Some doctors say there are fewer infections, in part because urban dwellers are more cautious. The brutal experience of the first wave of the pandemic is forcing the population to pay more attention to measures such as distance.
However, several influential experts are already proposing to assess the possibility that the indicators are now quite good, as “community resilience” has emerged in Bergamo.
In the province of Bergamo, a quarter of the population is at least partially resistant to COVID-19. It’s relatively easy: only one in 13 people in the province of Milan has antibodies and only one in 40 of all Italians.
This reduces the risk of further outbreaks, and Luca Lorini, chief anesthesiologist at the city’s largest hospital, speaks of a “natural vaccine.”
Statistics show that a much larger proportion of the population of the Bergamo province is already more resistant to the coronavirus compared to Lombardy or Italy as a whole.
In June, officials from this province carried out 10,000. studies, which showed that 57% of respondents have developed antibodies.
Although the tests were carried out in the worst affected areas, a subsequent study also showed that a quarter of the population of the Bergamo province is at least partially resistant to COVID-19. It is relatively easy: only one in 13 people in the province of Milan has antibodies and only one in 40 of all Italians.
According to the Mario Negri Institute for Pharmacological Research in Bergamo, up to 420,000 people in the province have contracted the virus. This means that the health system did not detect up to 96 percent. Infections
The virus no longer finds targets
This, analysts say, explains why the second wave of the pandemic is conditionally bypassing Bergamo. For their part, the cities and towns that suffered the least in the spring, Milan, Como, are now fighting dangerous outbreaks.
Scanpix / PA Wire / Press Association Images photo / Fewer COVID-19 infections in autumn than other parts of Italy and Europe
For example, from October 2 to 23, the number of COVID-19 cases increased by only 7% in Bergamo and up to 65% in Lombardy as a whole. During the past week, the province of Bergamo registered an average of 20.4 new cases per day. population, and up to 81.4 cases in Milan.
According to Massimo Galli, an infectious disease expert at the University of Milan, people exposed to the first wave of coronavirus are now more likely to have antibodies to prevent reinfection in the fall.
“Antibodies don’t always provide complete protection – there are several cases where people are re-infected with a different strain of the virus.
But generally, community resistance to such a virus means a lot, Galli said. – I am sure that many people who were previously infected with the coronavirus are now protected from infection. And if a different strain is infected, the infection is only mild. “
By the way, Bergamo is not the only old fireplace now preventing a new big wave of infections. It’s easy to guess that the other areas that suffered the most in spring are now doing better, such as Brescia and Cremona.
Scanpix / SIPA photo / Fewer COVID-19 infections in autumn than elsewhere in Italy and Europe
“The correlation is very, very important,” says Giuseppe Remuzzi, director of the Mario Negri Institute. – In the northern areas, where the virus roamed in the spring, it no longer finds people to infect.
Bergamo people may be more fearful and adhere to restrictions. But this factor may not be the most important. I don’t think that can explain the differences, because people in Lombardy behave very similarly. “
Can significantly improve the situation
According to G. Remuzzi, “natural immunity, community immunity” has now developed in the province of Bergamo. The researcher added that he did not want to use the term “herd immunity”, which usually occurs when 50-90% can no longer be infected. populations: “We are still a long way from that.”
Meanwhile, other experts believe that even a smaller proportion of resistant people can significantly slow the spread of the virus.
“We know that if the virus reproduction rate (R) exceeds 1, the number of infections increases exponentially,” said doctor Luca Foresti. – But if R is only slightly greater than 1, then y 15-25 percent. people with antibodies are enough to make R less than 1. The difference is small, but it can change a lot in a few days.
In Bergamo, people really do not believe that a better current situation is recovering from a spring catastrophe. Many still mourn the loss of loved ones or try to maintain a business.
The quarantines, the new restrictions in Italy and throughout Europe are generating fears of a real economic catastrophe. Therefore, such “community resilience” is expected to gradually ease limitations and help people return to normal life.
Bergamo MP Stefano Benigni has already addressed Health Minister Robert Speranz and Lombardy Regional Governor Attilio Fontana, saying that it was “wrong to wrongly punish areas like Bergamo where there are no serious problems.”
„Scanpix“ / AP nuotr./Attilio Fontana
It is true that such a solution, although technically logical, would be difficult in terms of policy; According to Foresti, it would be much easier to guarantee uniform restrictions throughout the region than to divide them by provinces.
“Imagine if we told people over 65 to stay home. Or that those who have developed antibodies can go outside. In a political sense, it is complicated, ”said the specialist.
In any case, the people of Bergamo certainly do not believe that a better current situation will recover the catastrophe of spring. Many still mourn the loss of loved ones or try to maintain a business.
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