The data scientist warned when Lithuania could see an explosion of new cases again.

“We have what we had last year. Summer and those cases are” going down “. It seems that this week and the next all of Lithuania will enter the green zone. This is great news because that virus is gone. However <...> The data shows that in other countries, where it is much better with vaccination, the Delta variant is spreading and it is only a matter of time before we arrive. “

When asked if there is a dangerous situation when, for example, the municipality of Neringa, which was in the green bar, turned yellow again, he replied that this fluctuation is normal.

“That fluctuation between the green and yellow zones will be and there is no need to survive because it is necessary to look at the absolute numbers then. We are entering a phase where there are very few cases and one case may make the statistics a bit worse, but we have to look at the absolute numbers and the whole of Lithuania.

For all of Lithuania to be in the green zone, 50 boxes per day should not be exceeded. It is also necessary to look at those numbers, and that a municipality, especially a smaller one, fluctuates, which means that it is a normal wave ”.

When asked by V. Zemlio-Balevičius if it is not dangerous to end the quarantine when the Delta variety began to spread throughout Europe, he assured that restrictions cannot be considered when the situation is good.

“If the situation is good, we remove the restrictions, but we have to be very clear about what we will do when the situation worsens. From a data point of view, it will inevitably reach us as well, it is only a matter of time. Now we have a period of time. relaxation before coming to us. “

He also added that it certainly does not make sense to maintain excessive restrictions now, as the delta variety will continue to appear, only a small number of new cases will make it easier to trace. According to the data scientist, when there are few new cases, the handling of the epidemic is quite different, as it becomes easier to trace contacts, etc.

“When there are few cases, then you can handle specific actions. This means that you are very attentive to what arrives in Lithuania from those countries where the Delta variety is spreading, <...> and all cases without exception are sequenced and tested for Delta.

Sequencing takes time, and the tests are such that you can immediately check for a mutation, as you may have previously checked for an Alpha variant. Then we will know immediately if that Delta is coming to us. So if you find out that a person is ill with Delta, clearing up all the contacts can isolate everything. The delta will not rotate. “

According to him, the more such practices are applied, the longer the arrival of the Delta variant is delayed.
“Such actions are appropriate and necessary, and general restrictions should be a criterion of reasonableness.”

The delta variety, said V. Zemlys-Balevičius, is currently widespread in Russia and the United Kingdom.

“On the other hand, we have European countries that we have not touched at all. For example, we have the Balkan countries, where the number of cases is very small, vaccination rates are lower than in Lithuania, but there are few cases and Delta has not yet appeared. As a result, from a data point of view, where there is a Delta, there are problems, and where there is not, there is an old boot. “

According to the data scientist, we are simply reverting to the same situations we were in last year.

“All of Europe seemed to be dealing with the virus, and then in the fall it was hit with new force. We have that seasonality and it is a research question why the Delta variety is not spreading in the Balkans and Lithuania. This is probably due to the fact that summer and people spend more time outdoors. <...> The fall will hit even harder for the same reasons. When it’s winter, people go further inside because our climate is colder and we have that problem. “

Comparing the situation in Scotland and Lithuania, he mentioned that there are almost 100%. vaccinated more than 60 m. people with. Looking at the figures, the scientist warns that there the Delta strain spreads among those who have not been vaccinated.

“The prevalence in the vaccinated group is small, and where it is not vaccinated or is less vaccinated, it spreads. <...>. Unfortunately, we will also have a spread in those older age groups. There will be no miracle and people who do not get vaccinated will get sicker ”.

V. Zemlys-Balevičius said that July will be calm enough and that the number of sick people should start to grow again in August.

“All those problems will start to appear at the end of the summer, it is both good and bad. We still” buy “time to prepare, but if we are with the same vaccines that we have, the fall will be sad.

Here we talk about risks and when comparing data based on the information available. It’s true, maybe something will change in Lithuania and there will be something different. “

Outbreaks have been declining

COVID-19 outbreaks in the country have halved in a week and epidemiologists continue to record a decline in coronavirus outbreaks.

According to the National Center for Public Health (NVSC) on Tuesday, a comparison of the trends recorded on the COVID-19 outbreak map in late May and June shows that active outbreaks fell nearly 90% in one month, from 386 in May. to 46 in June.

According to NVSC doctor epidemiologist Daiva Razmuvienė, epidemiologists continued to record a downward break in the curve of the coronavirus outbreak last week, and these trends are driven by population vaccination.

“What we see in the outbreak curve is gratifying. Last week, the downtrend in breakouts not only persisted, but also saw a more significant break in the curve than in the weeks before it reached around 30 percent each week. This means that the impact of vaccination on the epidemiological situation is particularly significant. This is a very good and long-awaited result, which shows that we can defeat the virus through vaccination, ”said D. Razmuvienė.

He urged residents to continue to actively vaccinate and “build a success story together and meet it in the fall, not the virus.”

According to NVSC data, last week in Lithuania 60 percent. there was a decrease in active outbreaks registered in educational institutions. His specialists registered 12, up from 30 the week before. Half of the outbreaks were in the food industry, furniture manufacturing, construction and logistics, and transportation sectors.

At the time, trading companies, experts say, looked at 40 percent last week. fewer active shoots compared to week 24 of the year. His epidemiologists registered four, a week before seven.

According to experts, the outbreak curve in the manufacturing sector fell more slowly last week than in the previous week, that is, the number of outbreaks in companies fell by a fifth during the week. There were also no more active outbreaks in sewing companies: in the spring, more than 20 companies were registered in this area.

At the end of last week, a total of 46 active outbreaks of COVID-19 were recorded in Lithuania, compared with 88 the previous week. 138 active outbreaks of COVID-19 were detected from June 7 to 13 and 212 outbreaks from May 31 to June 6. At the end of May there were 331 outbreaks and 448 outbreaks from May 10 to 16.

The NVSC recalls that an outbreak is the sudden spread of a communicable disease that affects a limited number of people or a limited area, that is, two or more interrelated cases of the disease in time and space.

The NVSC recalls that Biontech and Pfizer can be given to people over 12 years of age, and that the remaining vaccines can be given to all adults.