The data scientist proposes a fundamental change in the vaccination regimen and reminds that quarantine can work retroactively

The data of the pandemic last week are not gratifying, said V. Zemlys – Balevičius in the program “Delfi rytas”.

“Looking at the numbers, we had a 7 percent increase last week. This is not good at all. Because if we want to talk about controlling the epidemic, we should see the numbers start to fall. (…) We need a recession and we still have slow growth, that’s not good, ”he said.

V. Zemlys-Balevičius stated that the vaccination rate is somewhat gratifying.

“As more new doses arrive, it accelerates. Looking ahead, the effect of vaccination is not as drastic as it was with restrictions. Some weeks we saw drops of 20 percent. (Vaccine, aut. P.) It eliminates possible carriers of the virus, but does so less quickly. We will not see a sudden drop. It will probably go up, and then it will slow down, go down a little bit, ”said the data scientist on the show“ Delfi rytas ”.

V. Zemlys-Balevičius stated that the increase in new cases should be related to releases from quarantine.

“How does the virus spread? Through contacts. There is always a balance of two factors: what lowers the spread and what increases. What it reduces: reduction of contacts, vaccination, establishment of contacts. Unfortunately, restricting contacts doesn’t work much. We have releases, people are moving, ”he said.

V. Zemlys – Balevičius stated that contact tracing still does not work 100 percent. The National Public Health Center (NVSC) does not track all newly identified cases on a daily basis.

“Another thing that could help significantly is vaccination with at least the first dose, not vaccination with the second dose. Because now we can see by the numbers that we are using half the vaccines for the second dose. This means that people they are fully vaccinated, but we don’t vaccinate those who don’t have protection. Partial protection would already provide protection against severe cases and hospitalizations. And now that’s a problem for us. “Because we don’t do that, growth doesn’t stop,” he said. .

The interlocutor of the program pointed out that every week Lithuania receives a vaccine that would protect about 7 percent of the population. Therefore, according to him, now it is convenient to try to vaccinate as many people as possible with at least the first dose.

“In other words, if we were to get vaccinated only with the first dose, we could vaccinate almost 30 percent of the population in 4 weeks. And in a month, we should have about 60 percent of the people with the first dose of the vaccine. Which should already make a significant contribution to the decline. But since we won’t, and will probably use a second dose as well, the vaccination rate will likely be 3 percent a week. We will vaccinate 12 percent of the population in May. Consequently, there will be about 42 percent of people with the first dose of the vaccine. Unfortunately, this effect will be correspondingly less, “said V. Zemlys-Balevičius.

“Testing this strategy in reality has paid off. The Board of Experts also said that everything is in order. That’s why we don’t use it, “he asked.

Data scientist V. Zemlys-Balevičius said it is not yet clear which activities currently pose the greatest threat.

“It just came to our attention then. Because to identify those places it is necessary to collect data and work with them. This, neither the past nor this Government, unfortunately, has been able to do. This requires working with data, as Statistics Lithuania has created a pretty good dataset that tracks companies with higher incidence rates than the general population. It would take 20 more experiments, tables and active work of this type to be able to do it actively. But NVSC doesn’t have the skills to do that, you need to invest in them, ”said the program’s interviewer.

He said that in 4 months the situation has not changed much. Consideration of what should be closed is based on considerations rather than specifics.

“Since that work is not being done, we do not have that data, decisions will be made again based on considerations. And according to the beliefs and fears of each one of us, which are not always based on reality ”, explained V. Zemlys – Balevičius.

The data scientist recalled that the presented plan of 4 quarantine scenarios had to work retroactively: As the situation deteriorated, some activities would have to close their doors.

“In Vilnius we have long exceeded that limit, since the restrictions should come into force. The question now is what is needed for those restrictions to take effect. The Ministry of Health should already give the answer when the restrictions come into force. But it seems that the political will to convert the restrictions, unfortunately, we do not have it. It will not be them, that in itself is a problem. The conscience is certain, and in Lithuania people stay when there is an incentive or fear that something happens. And when the entire population knows that there will be no restrictions, why be very careful? After all, nothing bad will happen, “said the interlocutor of the program” Delfi rytas “.

“We are only relying on vaccination, we are waiting for the good weather and for the virus to gradually reduce,” said data scientist V. Zemlys-Balevičius.