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However, panic in the capital gripped many residents who feared a reappearance of the brutal Taliban Islamist government seen in 1996-2001.
Taliban fighters took control of checkpoints across Kabul, and fighters with rifles on their shoulders marched through the streets of the Green Zone, an area heavily fortified with most embassies and international organizations.
The Taliban tried to convince the international community that Afghans should not be afraid of them, and one of the founders of the Taliban, Abdul Ghani Baradar, said the fighters must show that they can “serve our nation and ensure security.”
Professor Egdūnas Račius, an Islamic researcher, commented on the events of the past few days and mentioned what awaits Afghanistan in the future on Lietuvos Rytas’ “New Day” television program.
A bleak future
A professor from Vytautas Magnus University (VMU) said that it is still difficult to assess what management measures the Taliban will take and how similar it will be to the 1996-2001 period. operating mode.
“The question of whether the new Taliban, or what we call the Taliban, will impose the same strict powers that they imposed between 1996 and 2001. The rebels themselves, now the new government, declare that they will not be so tough, said the expert. – For example , they will allow women to go to school and things like that. Perhaps this is simply a consolation to the Americans themselves and the coalition that we don’t want to get immediately angry with right now. But there may be signs of liberalization or moderation. It is hard to say so far. “
International recognition
Regarding the relations of the new Afghan government with other countries, E. Račius did not hesitate: the Taliban regime will have the warmest relations with the neighboring state of Pakistan.
„De facto International relations between the future government and Pakistan are already in place, because in any case, it is Pakistan that has saved the Taliban and allowed them to return to Afghanistan, form that new coalition and overthrow the US-backed government. – Certainly a researcher of Islam. “Pakistan should be the country that should soon recognize a new government.”
The professor also highlighted the other two world forces that have already managed to establish relations with the Taliban government. These are Russia and China. The latter is already pledging financial support to the Taliban in rebuilding devastated Afghanistan.
“Russia and China seem to be inclined, a little to wait, to also recognize the legitimacy of the new government.” They left their embassies, they did not move, they did not evacuate, “said the Middle East expert.
According to E. Račius, the relations of the western states with the Taliban should be extremely cold: “It is too early to speak about the desire of the western states to normalize relations. Those relationships are likely never to be established, in the hope that perhaps the West will end the period in which this new government perishes due to internal pressures and other reasons.
“Americans have been waiting for the collapse of the Soviet Union, so why not wait for the collapse of the Taliban?” Added a VMU lecturer.
What has changed in 20 years?
According to E. Račius, we must understand that since 2001, when the Taliban were expelled from Kabul, they have not disappeared, they have only moved to more remote settlements in the province.
“In 20 years, the Taliban hadn’t gone anywhere, he had left the cities, but they ruled the province. If you remember the Ghowr province selected by Lithuania, the Taliban were in two southern areas all the time and our soldiers did not go there because it was too dangerous, recalled E. Račius. “That there were no Taliban for 20 years, and now to say that it sprouted like a mushroom after the rain would not be entirely right.”
According to the professor, for the majority of the Afghan population, life around the Taliban was normal.
“Yes, Kabul has been without the Taliban for 20 years, some of the major cities in the country as well. But many did not live so quietly that the Taliban were not present, the international relations expert said. “There is not much change for those people.”
Lithuania
When asked about the possible increase in the number of migrants flowing to Lithuania this year, E. Račius stated that if Lithuania receives migrants from Afghanistan, Lithuania will become only an intermediate stop for them.
“Lithuania has never been, it is not and it is difficult to imagine that it would be the country that immigrants would want to come to. The question is whether Lithuania would become a transit country for them”, is convinced E. Račius.
However, in the professor’s opinion, the management of migration flows is not in the hands of Lithuania. That is what Russia and Belarus will depend on how many migrants may attempt to cross the state border illegally.
“During all those 3 decades of Lithuanian independence, every year dozens or sometimes up to a hundred Afghans passed through Lithuania or in Lithuania and applied for asylum. In this sense, it is not new for us,” said the professor. Kremlin and Minsk. If they continue to play the game they just played with the Iraqis, then yes, those numbers could go up. “
Is the blame flying in the US?
The Islamic scholar is convinced that American troops should have been kidnapped earlier, but agreed that this action was inevitable.
“I think it was a very late action. Since the Barack Obama administration had to withdraw the troops, the rebels were not that strong at that time and could have entered into negotiations to hand over power or form some kind of transitional coalition. Now It has been too late and, as it were, with at least two administrations too late. Donald Trump had to do that, the current American administration no longer had a choice. It is absolutely useless to withhold soldiers, even without a doubt, information from Intelligence allowed the president to understand that there is a situation there that would not be possible to maintain for a long time, “said E. Račius confidently.
Speaking about the future of Afghan society, Račius remained calm: “The vast majority of Afghans are completely satisfied with Islamic ethics and only a small proportion of progressive-minded and living people feel that their quality of life is deteriorating. practically or in obvious danger.
What we see at the Kabul airport should not necessarily be treated as political war refugees. It could be many opportunists or individual people who see that chaos can be exploited and disappeared. “
