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In the program “Delfi rytas”, the scientist described the current situation of the country as stabilization.
“For the second week in a row, there is a certain drop in cases in Lithuania. Unfortunately, that drop is caused by Vilnius. For 15 weeks in a row, 15 percent has been carried out in Vilnius. Fall. Everything else in Lithuania is slowly climbing to the top ”, said V. Zemlys-Balevičius.
The data analyst noted that the situation has changed. In the past, Vilnius only caused high morbidity rates in Lithuania.
“40-50 percent. The cases consisted of Vilnius case numbers. Now Vilnius is getting back to its population level. I mean, about 25 percent, but the growth is still there, we have 1000 cases. 75 percent. it comes from all over the rest of Lithuania, ”said V. Zemlys-Balevičius.
He also noted that a month ago there were significantly more municipalities in Lithuania, where the number of cases was 100 thousand. the population was less than 200 in 14 days and now there are only six left.
Vaccination has its effect
The scientist noted that vaccination in Lithuania has its effect. That can be seen in hospitals.
“The number of patients admitted to hospitals has stabilized. Approximately 100-120 people go to bed every day. But there are more prescriptions and there is a reduction in lying in intensive care. It means that patients who come are easier to treat ”Said V. Zemlys-Balevičius.
This is not surprising given the number of cases by age. At present, the highest percentage of vaccinated people in Lithuania is in the oldest age group and most of the people are younger.
“It just came to our knowledge then. Thus, the effect of vaccination works: the youngest are sick, the workload of patients has decreased, because the most difficult situations have decreased,” said V. Zemlys-Balevičius.
Restrictive measures are no longer among the main factors
According to the data analyst, the current situation in the country is affected by several factors: vaccination, tests and the spring effect.
“The weather is warming, people are coming out more, they are not gathering indoors,” said V. Zemlys-Balevičius.
At the same time, the researcher noted that the tests are now the highest they have ever had.
“We test twenty several thousand people a day. Most of it is used for preventive tests.
Outbreak management tests are designed to identify sick people so they do not spread the virus. Increased testing is one of the reasons.
We have only two active management measures, which are extensive testing and vaccination, the impact of the remaining restrictions is significantly less, ”said V. Zemlys-Balevičius.
Scientific achievements have resonated around the world
The scientist was pleased that the so-called sequencing research, which is designed to monitor which varieties are spreading in the country, is not bad in Lithuania.
“Gytis Dudas and the team wrote an article about the” Anykščiai bush “(the variety in mind that was first spread in Lithuania in Anykščiai -” Delfi “). Both Nature and Science are already writing about that article. This is a great achievement in science. Unfortunately, it happened in such a situation, “said V. Zemlys-Balevičius.
The data analyst pointed out that in the municipalities where the situation is worse, the tests are carried out only by PCR to be able to sequence (identify the virus strain – Delphi).
“Our sequencing capabilities have paid off, and at least we can understand what is happening. Sequencing is necessary to catch dangerous varieties and see how they spread, “said V. Zemlys-Balevičius.
The Indian variety is feared
According to him, the Lithuanian variety imported from Africa is already common throughout Lithuania, but it does not dominate against the British, “which is quite good news.”
The scientist, based on the British experience, was not inclined to emphasize the Brazilian or South African varieties, but, according to him, the global variety that is spreading in the world is worrying.
“In the UK, neither the Brazilian variety nor the South African variant have spread. But there is disturbing news that the Indian variety has started to spread in the UK. The Indian variety is leading to additional vaccines in the UK to make people less sick, and is said to likely lead to the lifting of restrictions (exemptions).
Let me remind you that the situation in the UK is much better, both in terms of cases and deaths, than in our country. There, that Indian variety is taken very seriously, “said V. Zemlys-Balevičius.
According to the researcher, initial research has shown that the Indian variety is even more contagious than the British variety.
“We are talking about the number of reproductions r (how many people are infected by an infected person -” Delfi “), it is 2.5 for the British and 3 for the Indians. When it inevitably arrives in Lithuania, it will probably start to dominate.
If it turns out that your r-score is higher, then like the British they caused the third wave, it could possibly cause the fourth wave as well. Therefore, it is very important to reduce the number of cases, because when that variety arrives, it will be easier to deal with it, ”said V. Zemlys-Balevičius.
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