The coronavirus forecast presented to the government is grim even in the best of cases: 2-4 weeks could turn critical

According to data received from Delfi, the government has a forecast that Lithuania should exceed the average of 300 cases per day in less than two weeks.

The reservation of beds will be reached in 2-4 weeks.

The forecast is optimistic. It also indicates how soon the reserve of hospital beds for coronavirus patients will be exhausted.

“Historically, about 8% of us have been hospitalized. The number of patients who have been confirmed with the virus and who have been in hospitals an average of about 10 days, so we will reach our COVID-19 bed reserve in 2 -4 weeks, depending on the growth scenario ”, shows the forecast.

Aurelijus Veryga confirmed that the Ministry of Health has received that forecast. As stated in your written comment, SAM is aware of this data.

As S. Skvernelis announced on Monday, 57 percent were already busy in Lithuania at the beginning of the week. beds for the treatment of patients with COVID-19. In a comment, A. Veryga states that Lithuania is preparing for such a situation, among the possible options, both the reduction of planned health services and the installation of new outpatient hospitals.

“If that happens we will use 70%. (not 100%, but 70%) combat reservation of beds, the scenario of having more beds in other places will immediately “light up”. We have planned that scenario. Also, as already mentioned, if this happens, scheduled services may be reduced or new outpatient hospitals installed. So we are preparing for all possible scenarios, we realistically assess the situation and the latest data not only in Lithuania, but also abroad, ”explained A. Veryga.

Urge beds to be made as soon as possible

In turn, the director of the Center for Communicable Diseases and AIDS, who was a candidate in the elections with the Social Democrats, prof. Saulius Čaplinskas is convinced that if the reserve of beds for COVID-19 patients were exhausted, it would only show that no homework was done during the quarantine in the spring.

“Unfortunately, the growing number of cases is not surprising. This is a logical and regular spread of this disease. The second thing, if the bed pool is going to be exhausted, is that no lessons were learned from COVID-19 during the quarantine. The quarantine was necessary for this to prepare us for these various scenarios. First of all, for the worst case, because it was immediately clear that the virus would take root in the human population and that it would spread, “said S. Čaplinskas. .

According to him, if this was not done, these actions should be taken now and as soon as possible to secure the required number of beds.

“There are probably more beds in Lithuanian hospitals in the European Union. If we see that there are not enough COVID-19 beds, we need more beds. (…) Maybe we can just re-profile them,” said the interlocutor.

S. Čaplinskas also criticized speeches that the provision of planned services in healthcare institutions may be stopped again. According to him, analyzes already carried out in some countries already show that during the first wave of the pandemic, excessive mortality from other diseases increased. He also saw such signs in Lithuania.

“What difference does a person make from death, either from COVID-19 or from a heart attack, because they will not receive help for fear of the coronavirus? or due to covid the healthcare system will simply ‘shut down’. That’s the point, it was necessary to prepare for it, “said the epidemiologist.

Long waits of up to 300 daily averages can be lost

Rolanda Lingienė, head of the Vilnius Department of the National Center for Public Health, had no doubt that Lithuania could soon reach an average of 300 new cases per day.

“The average of 300 is small and must be achieved. It is difficult to predict when and if there will be, but we see no reason for the number of cases to stabilize or stop,” said R. Lingienė.

According to the specialist, many asymptomatic cases are registered: people infect others without feeling any signs of the disease, which is very unfavorable epidemiologically.

“Another thing is that so far we have tried to keep life as free as possible, and so far there are very few restrictive measures. The third thing is that society is very relaxed and does not support this necessary discipline, concentration, it does not show solidarity with specialists in public health and doctors ”, said R. Lingienė.

That no measure or restriction will be effective until there is public support, S. Čaplinskas also said. According to him, the current situation, when some people no longer want to disclose their contacts, even some members of the medical staff refuse to test for coronavirus, shows that during the first wave “the stick was bent.”

“It is a mistake to think that we can do something only with prohibitions, sanctions or coercion. If people do not adopt new rules of conduct, there will be no desired effect. (…) It has long been clear that the measures currently in force are not enough to control the spread … Now the most important thing is not to overheat the health system and everything, ”said S. Čaplinskas.

The director of ULAC is convinced that it is necessary now to think about human resources in hospitals. The interviewee wondered why all the doctors in Lithuania who may have had contact with an infected person or have an asymptomatic form remain isolated in Lithuania.

“In many countries, even infected but asymptomatic doctors feel fine and continue to work. Just take steps to protect: 1) the patient, a colleague, 2) their family members,” said S. Čaplinskas.

Increase the number of hospitalized patients

According to R. Lingienė, the increasing number of COVID-19 patients needing hospital care is currently being recorded. As of Tuesday, there were 232 of these individuals treated for coronavirus in hospitals.

“There is a real increase,” he said. He attributed this to the overall increasing number of infections.

However, according to A. Veryga, the aforementioned forecasts may not necessarily come true. According to him, decisions about managing a pandemic are made on the basis of the current situation.

“They (the forecasts – Delphi) are theoretical, but they are. It can be anything and it cannot be. Therefore, we do everything possible to control the spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19) in the country. To do this, constantly New measures are being introduced to control the spread of this virus, evaluating the most recent real situation ”, says A. Veryga.

As one of the examples, the Minister presented a proposal to divide all Lithuanian municipalities into green, yellow and red zones. Read HERE what criteria municipalities can use to access them.

In addition, there were forecasts that 10,000 people will die in Lithuania. people, there have been predictions from mathematicians that they will get much more, etc. Scientists are based on mathematical models and SAM offers solutions to epidemiologists based on the real situation and tries to maintain the capacity of the health system ”, says A. Veryga.

Offer without leaving home

In a written comment, the Health Minister assured that even if the scientists’ forecasts came true, Lithuania would not introduce such a strict quarantine as in the spring.

“The virus is more familiar, we know how to control its spread. Also, people have not yet recovered emotionally after the spring quarantine, so it is important to do everything very carefully, ”commented A. Veryga.

According to S. Čaplinskas, the mere conversation about quarantine shows that spring was not prepared for an epidemic crisis. It is true that he agreed that local restrictions on life are inevitable, but they will only be effective if people follow and understand them.

“If we talk about quarantine again, it is, in my opinion, a concrete indicator that we are not ready,” said the professor.

Veryga asked for a reminder of the measures that helped stop the coronavirus in the spring and suggested that residents not go home without need.

“If you don’t have to go home, don’t go. It’s better to choose a safe way out of the house only if necessary, then let’s wear masks, face protection, keep our distance, disinfect our hands, wash them with soap, avoid meetings. Let’s remember what was important in the spring and we stay home when it is not necessary to leave them.

I know that we are all tired of this virus, of the tension, of the number of cases. However, it is important that only we can stop it ”, commented the Minister of Health.