[ad_1]
The Islamic State Jihadist (IS) Movement soon assumed responsibility for the brutal attacks.
Performed a double attack
Given the situation, the president of the United States, Joe Biden, expressed his condolences to the families and relatives of the victims and the injured, and assured that he will not forgive the perpetrators of the attacks, “he will persecute them and force them to pay dearly.” .
Recent Events Portal in Afghanistan lrytas.lt According to Egdūnas Račius, an Islamic researcher and professor at Vytautas Magnus University, who agreed to comment in 2006, Thursday’s attack was aimed at shooting two rabbits with one shot. First, destabilize the situation at the Kabul airport in the Afghan capital and undermine the authority of the Taliban. Second, damage and take hostage the US military.
It is probably clear that whoever organized these attacks or, so to speak, carried out a double attack, tried to destabilize the situation, to discredit the new government for not guaranteeing security, first and foremost, the security of the Afghan people.
On the other hand, it is clearly a group or force hostile to the United States, the coalition or NATO, which by carrying out such an attack, which claimed victims and wounded, wanted to seize the opportunity and “bury” those forces, “he said. the expert.
He has no doubt that the terrorist group has achieved its goal.
“We see that they have undoubtedly achieved this goal, at least in part, since they have shown that they can penetrate through firewalls and checkpoints that are more or less controlled by the future new government throughout the city, and they have also been able to reach the Americans so close that they could be injured or even killed, ”said E. Račius.
According to the expert, Thursday’s attack does not fit the traditional definition of a terrorist attack.
“Traditionally, terrorist attacks have been organized to instill fear in societies and, in part, in governments, and to pressure governments to accept terrorist demands.
Therefore, this is not a completely classic situation. So far, it is clear that this attack, which will probably be greater, aims to destabilize the situation and discredit the group that comes to power. “
There is no doubt that the United States will destroy the organizers of the attack.
Račius had no great doubts about the nature of future US retaliation, saying only time will tell when organizers will be informed of the “hunted” and killed attacks.
“The United States will take measures that are likely to be easily predictable, such as a precise ‘surgical’ military operation in which, if the organizers of the attacks are found, that place will simply be destroyed, as has been done so many times in Afghanistan itself, both in Iraq and elsewhere where the United States operated by military means.
Therefore, the algorithm from the perspective of the United States is easily predictable and has paid off so many times that there is no longer any doubt about how the state will behave. As long as a week, two, a month or a year passes before it is announced that the operation that killed the people who organized the attacks at the Kabul airport is difficult to tell, but that algorithm is clear. “
Overlapping interests
However, the Middle East expert stressed that the situation on Thursday was also reflected in the fact that for the first time the interests of the United States and the Taliban coincided, which could mean that opposing forces a few days ago could work together to stop to a common enemy.
“In this case, it seems to me that the interest of the United States and the new Afghan government is almost 100 percent. match. Perhaps the United States will no longer be directly threatened by a terrorist organization in Afghanistan itself, simply because American troops and civilians will already be evacuated, but globally any such group, the Islamic State or any other organization terrorist with a global agenda, it would certainly begin. to threaten US interests around the world, so the state has a clear interest in suppressing those outbreaks as soon as possible.
Meanwhile, it is also important that the Taliban pacify the country and ensure that there are no organizations that oppose it, especially the armed forces, that may resort to terrorist methods.
Therefore, the United States is working with the Taliban not only to find a common language, as a common language has most likely already been found on the issue, but perhaps also to share intelligence. The United States would like to know what the new Afghan government knows about the possible organizers of the latest attack and where they might be hiding, and once that is clear, the United States will be able to easily carry out the military operation.
Therefore, there is a certain paradox in this regard, as information is being collected, including intelligence, which can be shared with a force that was still considered two weeks ago to be the greater enemy than the United States, or at least backed by states. United, he had the Afghan army. to struggle. “
Probability of terrorist attacks in the future
So far, there have been two organizations that have posed a great threat to the world. One of them is al-Qaeda, with whom the new Afghan regime, the Taliban, cooperated when they ruled the country from 1996 to 2001. The professor called this relationship between the two groups “marriage by deduction.” The second largest terrorist group in the world is the Islamic State.
However, according to Račius, it is unlikely that the territory of Afghanistan could become the new cradle of conspirators of global terrorism in the near future, as al-Qaeda has been successfully defeated by the United States and is too weak, and it would be too difficult for him. the Islamic State to operate in the country due to ideological disagreements with the Taliban, who have taken over the country and will try to maintain their influence there.
“As far as Al Qaeda is concerned, the Americans have been very successful in dealing with this group. And if al-Qaeda still poses a real threat, maybe it could be felt in the Sahel and maybe a little bit in North Africa, but in any case, it is not a force that, at least in the near future, could pose a threat to the world.
Whether he can return to Afghanistan will depend on the eventual formation of a new government: a broad coalition in Kabul, or the building of a new relationship with al-Qaeda, Tajikistan and previous authorities such as Abdullah Abdullah or Hamid Karzai. At this point, you have to wait a little longer before predicting something.
However, the Islamic State, which until recently was a great physical threat, has now become a more ideological and ideological threat, so for now we can be sure that the new Afghan government, which is extremely hostile to the state Islamic, he has a completely different attitude. Therefore, the establishment of an “Islamic State” could only be possible if the new government seemed too weak and did not maintain a monopoly of power in the country. But I don’t think that’s going to happen. “
However, according to the expert, Afghanistan could still become a haven for smaller radical terrorist groups, causing unrest in the region and potentially becoming a new challenge for Russia.
“Other armed organizations, such as the Islamic movement in Uzbekistan, the Tajik Islamist movements and perhaps even radical Kashmiri groups and their representatives, could find refuge in the new Afghanistan, but it would not be global but regional or even national. However, they could become a headache for the Central Asian states and, in part, Russia.
I would not rule out the possibility that, for example, the more radical Chechen fighters, who were in fact based on the Taliban before 2001, in Afghanistan, there is still or will be back there, and when they return, they could definitely cooperate with the new government. and become a headache for Russia itself, ”commented E. Račius.
The United States Presidential Elections and the Future of the Current Government
Assessing the possible impact of the tragic attacks and the decision of the US president to withdraw troops from Afghanistan on the popularity of Biden and the democratic political forces he represents in the presence of the country’s society, prof. E. Račius stated that although recent events did not add political points to the government, citizens will rely primarily on the economic aspect when electing another president.
“It will all depend on the American economy,” he said. – For some reason, we imagine that American citizens are very empathetic and closely follow developments in Afghanistan. The vast majority have not done it for a long time because they are tired of this war, of the numbers, of the trillions of dollars that have been “screwed up”, so looking through this prism, you can say that the most Americans are happy. that taxpayers’ money will no longer be wasted. Therefore, the withdrawal of military forces as such is welcomed by both Democratic and Republican voters.
The images of the last few weeks are, of course, uncomfortable, as the United States has put itself in a rather strange position: from a foreign perspective, the world superpower has been completely overthrown, held hostage to the situation and forced to evacuate its people. and to the coalition collaborators. . “
The expert pointed out that for the moment, the “picture” is certainly not beautiful, but it should not be a decisive factor that can determine the results of the country’s presidential elections in the future. More important factors could be the age of the current president and the associated physical and psychological ability to run for the second time, as well as other developments in the international arena that could overshadow today’s events in Afghanistan.
“The presidential elections will be held next year and not for two, so this situation can be completely forgotten, there may be some events, even more important, related to terrorism or conflicts in other parts of the world, such as between Taiwan. and China, which will be more relevant during the election, but as already mentioned, people will choose first based on the dynamics of the US economy.
On the other hand, we understand that President Biden is a man of a fairly solid age, so attention must also be paid to whether he will have the health and the will to stand in the new elections. So far, let’s not rush to look ahead, but from today’s perspective, recent events, of course, have not added any positive political points. “
