The aviation sector looks forward to next year: flight directions from Lithuania are already being negotiated

Roller coasters in aviation

Aviation expert Simonas Bartkus describes the situation in the aviation industry as a roller coaster ride. He points out that the United States publishes daily information on how many passengers passed through the screen at all airports in the country the day before.

“While there are technically few movement restrictions in the US, since most people fly domestically, the curves move it up and down. Sometimes it is difficult to explain why people want to travel more in one week and less in another.

As for Lithuania and Europe, we had a summer season in the summer, it seemed that optimism had touched the whole sector and that it could improve in the future, but the second wave of the virus is the main culprit. Although most European countries no longer apply the severe restrictions that were in effect in March or April, the numbers of passengers and flights in October and November. fell close to the ones we saw in May. at first. Airports announced in November. statistics, this is mostly 90%. and more traffic is dropping, ”says S. Bartkus.

If we compare it with the previous year, currently a third of the planes fly in Europe, the number in Lithuania is slightly less, around 30 percent. The interlocutor points out that the Christmas period gives a bit of optimism, since currently the number of flights begins to increase.

“Although we looked at more airline plans and schedules in January, after the end of the New Year period, we will return to November in most of Europe and Lithuania. Late December and early December were days when there were few flights since smaller airports, ”says the aviation expert.

When asked how the new stricter restrictions may affect flight schedules, Bartkus notes that it is difficult to predict how people’s behavior and desire to travel may change after the introduction of new restrictions.

“The new restrictions do not know how they will affect travel. Restricting movement between municipalities can deter potential travelers,” he says.

Faster recovery expected in spring

Aurimas Stikliūnas, Head of the Lithuanian Airports Aviation Services Division, also points out that demand and interest in flights is currently higher than in November. It is said that the increase is felt due to the big holidays, when the flow of passengers also increases in natural circumstances, as the population goes to visit nearby countries and others.

According to him, by renewing and increasing the volume of flights from mid-December, it will be possible to reach 52 destinations from three Lithuanian airports, but points out that there may be canceled flights.

“What we see in the airline supply planned for the second half of December, we forecast that the traffic flow should reach 30-40% compared to 2019. The airlines that have planned the flights plan to carry them.

Of course, there can be isolated surprises that can lead to flight cancellations. Recent statistics show that the demand for flights and passenger flow has doubled compared to the end of November and the beginning of December, ”says A. Stikliūnas.

In evaluating the last few months, A. Stikliūnas points out that the demand for flights has decreased not only in Lithuania, but in all countries with extremely high morbidity. Passengers supposedly travel only for necessary purposes: for work, to visit loved ones, or to return to Lithuania for a short time.

“Although we are in second place in Europe in terms of morbidity, we forecast that necessary travel should remain to maintain the importance of travel.” The aviation sector is important for the Lithuanian economy. We see that the minimum need for travel remains, both for passenger movement and cargo, so we expect trends similar to those of November and December to continue until spring. We do not see any great signs of optimism that the market will recover in a week or two, ”shared the LTOU representative.

There are 4 crises in the world, but one already has hope

At the Login conference at the end of September, S. Bartkus said that the world was affected by up to 4 crises at once: COVID-19, economic, confidence and uncertainty, and the collapse of international relations, and none of these crisis saw the light at the end of the tunnel.

Right now, according to him, it is easier to see hope in the most difficult crisis: a pandemic. The vaccine offers great optimism for the entire aviation industry, but there are plenty of other issues that will need to be addressed to make the curve go up and the roller coasters disappear.

“The knowledge about the vaccines launched in the UK and the planned dissemination of the vaccine around the world is very promising for the entire industry. Vaccines will fundamentally change the dynamics of a pandemic and free up all travel. The other three crises identified, with the arrival of the vaccine, could take the driver’s seat for greater recovery dynamics in the sector. All of Europe is focused on health issues, but sooner or later it will also touch on economic issues, as much of Europe has been quarantined or is now under more quarantine or some other regime, which is disrupting many businesses.

9 months have passed. since the beginning of the pandemic, but EU countries have not yet found a common way to agree on the same common morbidity rates or travel rules. Industry associations, airlines and airports are trying to persuade heads of state and politicians that, first and foremost, at least within Europe, travelers should not be treated differently from people living there. country. However, we see that the rules are still different, the crisis in international relations continues, ”said S. Bartkus on the program.

As an example, he cites the ban on direct flights from Lithuania introduced by Latvia. Currently, there are no flights to Riga from Vilnius and Palanga.

“Latvia strictly follows the rules that were imposed a few months ago, but at the time it did not think that it would affect flights from neighboring Lithuania. Despite transport representatives, the Latvian Minister of Transport protests against this decision. , because it has a very strong impact on the competitiveness of Latvia – many Lithuanians flew through Riga to other cities in Latvia, the ban was extended for another week, ”notes S. Bartkus.

Will we be able to travel freely after being vaccinated?

LTOU representative A. Stikliūnas notes that some people are not currently traveling due to the pandemic itself, but most are refusing to travel by air due to different restrictions in countries.

It notes that airlines are planning flights in 2021-2022 in response to news about the coronavirus vaccine. However, it is still difficult to assess how things will be regulated and managed with the arrival of the vaccine.

“We are seeing recommendations and suggestions from aviation organizations for the appearance of a vaccination passport, which would give more freedom to travel so that citizens can travel within the context of Europe.” It is not very clear how the whole process will be managed, but it will have a positive effect, ”he says.

According to the aviation expert, a faster recovery period should begin in the spring of next year, in the second quarter, when vaccination will become widespread in many countries and the situation is likely to be much better than it is now in Europe. . The interviewee observes that travelers look for opportunities and wait for spring when the pandemic situation improves. A. Stikliūnas believes that the whole travel push will start next year with vacation travel.

“We get a lot of inquiries from travelers about flights now and in the spring, because residents are yearning for travel. This year, the entire tourism sector has been hit particularly hard. (…) November The survey showed that travelers are yearning the most a vacation, and half of those surveyed indicated that the first trip will be for vacation purposes, ”he says.

LTOU is actively negotiating new directions

Next year, LTOU will seek to re-establish connections and the necessary volume of flights to the country with strategically important European aviation hubs in London, Frankfurt, Paris, Riga, Warsaw, Istanbul, Copenhagen, Helsinki, Brussels, which are important to both the foreign investors as well as inbound tourism. new opportunities for new directions.

A. Stikliūnas assures that, despite the pandemic, LTOU negotiations with airlines on new directions have already begun. According to him, the new directions are relevant for the business, tourism and emigrant segments. These are regions such as Germany, Great Britain, the Scandinavian countries, France, Holland, Switzerland and others.

“The airlines are currently planning schedules for the summer season, when in normal conditions 90 percent. Its October. It was planned and approved, this year only from December the airlines began to plan flights for next spring.

Currently, Lithuanian airports are actively negotiating with airlines not only on the return of flight volumes to all Lithuanian airports in general, but also on new flights. A pandemic is also a time of new opportunities. The address grid may change as airlines, especially low-cost ones, are undergoing aggressive expansion to gain as much market share as possible. We are also working to maintain strategically important addresses that are important to foreign investors and tourists, ”says the LTOU representative.