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When asked how to evaluate forecasts of economic contraction, R. Kuodis replied: “Now practically everyone has gone from forecasting to scenario analysis.” According to him, the situation is very unclear, so the old economic models cannot say much.
However, the economist shared his talent: “We can expect something similar to the 2009 scenario, when the economy fell by several percent. What exactly it will be like, not everyone knows. “
Incidentally, R. Kuodis stated that the statistics are not accurate now. And representatives from other countries say they do not know the exact situation. For example, it is difficult to measure the unemployment rate because some workers are on downtime, it is not clear if they are working on something or not, many people have gone on vacation, etc.
Raimondas Kuodis
Minister L. Kukuraitis stated that data is collected from various institutions: the Employment Service and Sodra. The latter’s data, according to the minister, show positive signs. “It just caught our eye then. Since the beginning of the quarantine, around 16-17 thousand negative balance, now that negative balance – 3 thousand. In May, 8,000 more people were accepted than fired,” said the minister. In the first week of June, he said, the readings also show positive signs.
And although L. Kukuraitis said the economy is opening up, people are looking for a job, but he also agreed with host Aurim Perednis’ comment that it still worries older people. There is almost no change in the group of employed people under the age of 45, but the figures in the group of people aged 45 to 50 vary. “There are more layoffs,” said L. Kukuraitis.
“Since the age of 60, 4 percent more employees have been laid off than usual, more than 65 to 6 percent. Compared to other age groups, this is statistically significant,” said Minister L. Kukuraitis.
Does this mean that older people are becoming less necessary in the labor market? “General unemployment rates generally hide large variations by age, large variations by nationality, etc.,” said Kuodis. “And older people have a kind of ‘pillow’, they can retire early, maybe have kids raised, maybe loans have been paid, maybe it’s morally easier to fire them than younger people with families, loans and the like “
According to R. Kuodis, unemployment for older people is not a Lithuanian reality, it is happening all over the world.
Linas Kukuraitis
L. Kukuraitis, speaking about the increase in layoffs of older people in recent months, said the details of telework should not be ruled out. “There may have been certain changes in the labor market to keep those with whom you can continue to work,” said L. Kukuraitis. “The business probably made such serious decisions because it could save him at all, it may have pushed those who can’t adapt to their jobs, but that’s an interpretation.”
Seimas approved subsidies for employees aged 60 and over, why was this age chosen? L. Kukuraitis stated that this is not out of the question, there have been significant changes in the labor market since the 1960s.
R. Kuodis spared no criticism of the benefits, which have recently been distributed to various groups in society. “Here for you retirees, such gifts,” R. Kuodis mentioned as an example.
What should be done then? See budget? “This is the practice of all civilized countries,” said the economist. – One can go silly and say that the adoption of a higher debt limit automatically becomes an opportunity to increase appropriations for various sectors. There are no such things anywhere in the normal world, but after blowing your eyes, you can say that the situation is extreme here, and so on. ”
Kuodis said authorities were distributing “gifts with a green ribbon”, adding that some gifts were good and others suspicious.
Speaking of various benefits and distributed support, L. Kukuraitis did not oppose R. Kuodis: “I agree that the pre-electoral political background cannot not exist.”
At the end of the conversation, program presenter A. Perednis asked economist R. Kuodis, “Are we at the beginning or end of the hurricane?”
“We will see. I agree with the Minister that the worst in Lithuania is already in the past,” said R. Kuodis, saying that now we have to wait for the second wave of the virus.
The whole conversation is on the “Delfi Day” show.
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