Terrorism expert: the entire continent will be a jihadist battlefield for the next 20 years

While living in Sudan, bin Laden began calling for jihad against Western forces and invented the export of terrorism against targets in the United States, such as attacks on U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania, just two years after his expulsion, he reports. nationalinterest.org.

History is likely to repeat itself, with the West forgetting the lessons learned and deciding again to ignore the escalation of terrorism in sub-Saharan Africa, the consequences could be very painful. Just remember 2019, when a Kenya-based Al Qaeda unit planned to hijack a plane and launch an attack similar to the 9/11 attack.

While these plans have been thwarted, the threat highlights a turbulent decade during which there has been an unprecedented recovery of Islamist groups in sub-Saharan Africa. Islamic State units have displaced millions of people in an effort to establish bases in six African countries. Occasionally, the area of ​​terrorist territory was equal to that of Belgium.

A bloody scenario repeats

Experts are sounding even more alarms, calling 2020 the year of the advance of the Islamic State. This is not too surprising, especially in the wake of the attacks earlier in the year, which killed 50 people in Mozambique, 100 in Nigeria and kidnapped some 300 students in Nigeria just a few weeks ago.

The repetition of history, the reorientation of the Islamic State towards Africa and the emergence of new hotspots on the continent may pose a greater threat than previous jihadist plans in the Middle East.
In Africa, Islamists have managed to strategically occupy territories in cross-border areas. Such tactics allow attacks to take place and disappear on the territory of another state, and the affected countries, which are, incidentally, one of the poorest and least prepared to overthrow the “Islamic State”, cannot do nothing for them. Also, some hotspots are close to natural resources. By occupying them, the Islamic State would significantly enrich itself and could expand its network and capabilities.

Given the potential consequences of incapacity (a stronger Islamic State network with many safe havens from which to attack the West), Islamic State activities in Africa require more attention, as it is a crucial security issue.

Four “hot spots” are particularly relevant. The first is West Africa, ravaged by various internal uprisings. Most worrying is the uprising led by Boko Haram. The military group operates in Nigeria, Chad, Niger and Cameroon, writes the BBC.

To establish a caliphate and overthrow the Nigerian government, Boko Haram has killed 36,000 people since 2009. civilians, another 2.5 million. people were forced to leave their place of residence. Although Boko Haram coordinated with the Islamist military group Al Qaeda in the Muslim Maghreb after 2010, in 2016 the group split. One part remained loyal to the Islamic State of West Africa, while the other strongly supported Abubakar Shekau.

Without resources

Although the area controlled by Boko Haram was once equal to that of Belgium, the area was reduced when the group divided. However, the group’s influence in Born State, Nigeria, is enormous. Also, the geographical location of the state (it is at the crossroads of four countries) is extremely favorable.

The charge allowed Boko Haram to disappear in Chad. Last year, an Islamist group organized perhaps the deadliest terrorist attack in the country’s history, killing 92 people. Boko Haram also secretly infiltrated Niger, killing 28 people and destroying 800 homes, and Cameroon, where 17 people were killed in an attack.

Nigeria cannot control Boko Haram and doubts remain as to whether any of the aforementioned countries could, especially given their military and economic weakness. While the Nigerian military ranks 42nd out of 138 countries analyzed, the other aforementioned states do not rank above 87th.

They also lack financial resources: they are among the poorest in the world. Among the 190 geographic units analyzed, Nigeria and Cameroon ranked 141st and 145th, respectively. Chad and Nigeria rank below 174 in terms of GDP per capita.

Not to mention that Chad, which has the second-best army after Nigeria, went through a recession and had to rely on French aid to prevent a military coup, and all of that has happened in the last four years. Chad cannot afford to have such a weak position, which ravages the “Islamic State” and attracts oil fields in the south of the country, which could become a potential lifesaver and source of income for the Islamist group.

Other major uprisings in West Africa include Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. In these countries, the “Islamic State in the Greater Sahara” has conquered the “uncontrolled territory” where these “collapsing” states are located.

Mali is one of several Sahel countries currently fighting jihadist uprisings, and violence is on the rise, the BBC reports. According to November 25 of last year. The Islamic State’s “center of gravity” has shifted from the Middle East to Africa and, to a lesser extent, to South Asia, according to the World Terrorism Index. Furthermore, in 2020 Islamic State militants have killed 67 percent in sub-Saharan Africa. more people.

“The expansion of Islamic State units in sub-Saharan Africa has intensified terrorism in many countries in the region,” according to the Global Terrorism Index. “Seven of the 10 countries with the largest increases in terrorist activity are in sub-Saharan Africa: Burkina Faso, Mozambique, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mali, Niger, Cameroon and Ethiopia.”

The report notes that in 2019. “Sub-Saharan Africa has the highest number of deaths related to Islamic State attacks: 982, or 41 percent. All victims of terrorism.”

Given that Mali and Burkina Faso rank 165th in GDP per capita and 96th in military power, these countries are unlikely to prevent the creation of another safe haven for the Islamic State.

Another major “hot spot” for the jihadist group is in East Africa, specifically on Mozambique’s northern border with Tanzania, where Islamic State units have been operating since 2017. It killed 2,000. civilians and another 430 thousand. they were forced to leave their place of residence.

In Mozambique, the “Islamic State in the province of Central Africa” ​​occupied the “four tourist islands” and Mocimboa da Praia, a port city in the Cabo Delgado province, bordering Tanzania and famous for its abundant natural resources (natural gas and rubies) worth approximately $ 50 billion. AMERICAN DOLLAR. By conquering them, the Islamic State would enrich its network.

The battlefield is an entire continent

The occupied territory was also used by the Islamic State to infiltrate Tanzania and carried out an invasion in October in which 300 militants killed 20 people before withdrawing to Mozambique.
Mozambique and Tanzania are economically and militarily inferior to Nigeria, so it can be assumed that it will not be easy for these two countries to lift this third possible safe haven.

It is worth mentioning briefly the Joint Democratic Forces, a group suspected of having ties to the Islamic State, and its mountains, which run through the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda, from Ruvenzori to Ituri, where most of the gold is mined from the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Although this sapphire organization has existed since 1995, the number of its victims has recently started to grow rapidly. 2020 800 Congolese civilians have been killed by the Joint Democratic Forces. The Democratic Republic of the Congo ranks 71st in terms of military power, but it is 185th among the poorest in terms of economy.

Without curbing the United Democratic Forces, the organization could become another part of the Islamic State’s “portfolio” of allies, providing vital access to another cross-border area and invaluable gold mines and a strong position in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. the most important in the world. valuable natural resource.

With four sprawling safe havens, the Islamic State has rebounded in sub-Saharan Africa and may be more dangerous than ever. Established on the borders of bankrupt countries, the Islamic State has become almost inviolable. Since no sub-Saharan state can stop the development of Muslims in a resource-rich area, the West, whatever its response, must react quickly before the Islamic State has managed to increase its capabilities and expand its international action to unprecedented proportions. .

However, this is not just a government fight with the insurgents, but also a deadly race between al-Qaeda supporters and the Islamic State. The competition has become so fierce that Olivier Guitta, a jihadist from France who works for GlobalStrat Risk Consultancy, made the prediction: “Africa will be a battleground for jihadists for the next 20 years and will replace the Middle East.”

Both Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State hate Western-backed secular rulers, whom they call “apostates.” On the other hand, the methods of operation of these groups differ enormously. The Islamic State is prone to brutal and outrageous violence, as evidenced by videos of beheaded or beheaded victims. While these actions undoubtedly attract sociopaths and criminals to the ranks of the “Islamic State”, they also deter most Muslims. For its part, al-Qaeda and its affiliates often seek to win the loyalty of local people who do not trust their government or police by exploiting regional and ethnic conflicts.