Teachers answered how many more quarantine restrictions might have to be met – it would all depend on one factor

Professor Saulius Čaplinskas wrote on his Facebook account this week that for at least the next two years, until lasting herd immunity develops and the virus stops spreading uncontrollably, he will have to accept certain life restrictions.

“Until [kolektyvinio imuniteto] We will have to live in a new reality, with certain restrictions and new rules of behavior: wearing masks indoors, ventilating, keeping at least one meter away, testing, vaccinating, etc. ”Wrote S. Čaplinskas.

The quarantine is temporary, but the masks will need to be remembered every year.

According to infectologist Arvydas Ambrozaitis, a professor at Vilnius University, quarantine is only a temporary measure and once enough people have been vaccinated it will no longer be necessary. However, masks, respirators, and some distance will remain episodic.

“You will have to remember the masks every fall, wear them, keep your distance, what the Japanese and Koreans have been doing every year for a long time. Clearly, the restrictions will remain, but such a strict quarantine won’t last long. Every year, when there is an increase in viral respiratory infections, epidemiologists recommend the use of masks. But our compatriots ignored it because it raised the question of how I would see myself in the mask. Now we will have to forget this ”, said prof. A. Ambrozaitis.

The interlocutor warns that the coronavirus has arrived forever, it will not go anywhere, but to 70 percent. society will get immunity, the pandemic will end.

“Maybe we should get vaccinated every year, maybe not, we don’t know yet. But I think it would be wise to wear masks during each disease season,” said the infectologist.

The professor also adds that every fall or winter, when the incidence of the coronavirus increases, he will have to revert to certain restrictions. However, they will not be as strict as they are now.

“It just came to our attention then. The pandemic will stop when 70 percent. People will get immunity. That should be our goal. Israel has already vaccinated 50 percent. People. I don’t know if it will take us 2 years, maybe it will. Let’s do it faster “, considered prof. A. Ambrozaitis.

Masks will definitely not be necessary throughout the year.

However, the interlocutor also has a good knowledge: the masks will definitely not have to be worn as long as they should at the moment.

“Of course, everything will open, everything will work as before. In summer, the virus does not spread as fast in our climate zone. The increase in morbidity from coronavirus may again be only in the fall. It is difficult to say how long this will last as we have no experience with this virus yet. Maybe a month, maybe two. Then you will have to use the masks again. But it will only be an episodic wear on them, definitely not like it is now, “said the interlocutor.

According to the infectologist, this virus will remain in the world in the same way as the influenza virus. He emphasizes, however, that it will not be necessary to return to such a strict quarantine if the vaccination process goes smoothly. But now, as long as there is no established herd immunity, there is simply no other way out without quarantine.

“Therefore, it is necessary to get vaccinated now and not think about what will happen in 2-3 years. The virus will spread, but the pandemic virus will not spread. There may be outbreaks, diseases, epidemics, but there will be no more pandemics. An epidemic differs from a pandemic in that the former is in a state, a region and the pandemic covers the entire world ”, explained prof. A. Amrozaitis.

Minor quarantine releases shouldn’t hurt

Lithuanian University of Health Sciences (LSMU) prof. skilled. Dr. According to infectologist Alvydas Laiškonis, the main problem in Lithuania today is that very few people have been vaccinated against COVID-19.

Furthermore, there is still not a single country in the world that has been vaccinated with 70%. society. Therefore, it is difficult to predict what the spread of the virus will look like after vaccination.

“It is estimated that there are half a million sick people in Lithuania. But everything is” maybe “. It is difficult to say how we will achieve vaccination and when the quarantine could be launched,” said prof. A. Laiškonis.

According to the infectologist, the time it takes to develop herd immunity depends on the number of vaccines we receive and how quickly we get vaccinated. But the professor also raises another question: Does anyone check people who are taking immunosuppressive drugs and have been vaccinated? Because these individuals may not develop enough antibodies even after vaccination.

“The biggest problem is that there are not enough vaccines. And the second problem is that AstraZeneca does not have clinical trials with the elderly yet. Because some countries refuse to vaccinate older people with this vaccine, because the European Medicines Commission has not yet made the decision to allow it. The desire expressed by the president to vaccinate 70% before July 6. society is more of a dream plan. But it is necessary to have vaccines for that ”, said the doctor.

We asked the infectologist if he would support small quarantine releases. According to the interlocutor, such releases should not lead to a new wave of diseases.

“I can say from personal experience: when I went to my hairdresser, she accepted only one person at a time, then ventilated the premises and disinfected everything. I think these businesses could work because everything is going very well. There are also no problems in small shops The biggest problems are in large supermarkets with lots of people. Freeing up small shops and beauty salons may already be good. After all, people need to get money from somewhere. I don’t think such a liberation will trigger a new wave of infections. Our society is already used to wearing masks and disinfecting hands, “said Prof. A. Laiškonis.