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Such a scenario threatens to destabilize the already fragile foundations of world trade.
Two liquefied natural gas tankers, loaded in the United States and destined for Asian markets, have changed course right in the middle of the Atlantic and will now attempt to circumnavigate Africa to avoid the jam in the Suez Canal. AP Moller-Maersk A / S and Hapag-Lloyd AG are considering sending the vessels down the same route, followed by a vessel belonging to Synergy Marine, which has been instructed to sail around the Cape of Good Hope.
The owner of Danish tanker Torm A / S said his clients were already asking about the costs of a possible diversion.
The search for alternative routes is by far the clearest example of how canal blockade is beginning to respond to all shipping, from consumer goods to ships carrying energy and raw materials.
Even before the 400-meter-long Ever Given was stranded ashore on Tuesday, the pandemic had caused confusion in all supply chains due to shortcomings and delays.
“As for the possible alternatives, we are reviewing all of them, not only the Cape of Good Hope, but also many others, such as air transport options for critical and urgent packages,” Maersk said in a statement. – No concrete decision has yet been made. It will all depend on how long the Suez Canal remains blocked. “
Traffic jams threaten to cause even more shipping disruptions, which could mean higher costs for container shippers, the importers who contract them, and ultimately possibly consumers. European companies, from automakers to retailers, are particularly concerned about the broader economic impact of the Swedish incident, all of which depend on a steady stream of Asian imports.
“Even if the situation is resolved within the next 48 hours, we will inevitably experience congestion at the ports and further delays in an already limited supply chain,” said Daniel Harlid, an analyst at Moody’s.
That’s bad because European manufacturers, including automakers, are not stocking spare parts, he said, adding that freight rates “will probably increase or at least stop falling, and are currently at a very high level.”
The German container line Hapag-Lloyd has said it is monitoring the situation and is closely monitoring the consequences for its services. The possibility of steering ships around the Cape of Good Hope is currently being considered. “
For container lines that carry around 80 percent. Prolonged congestion of global goods trade between Europe and Asia could mean abandoning carefully planned shipping schedules a few months in advance to allow importers to plan purchases, manage inventory, and ensure store shelves are full. and the production lines run smoothly.
With each day of waiting, the problems of container ships increase. Ships that are late for a few days will no longer be able to unload and load in time to return on time.
This forces carriers to cancel trips, further limiting capacity and increasing freight rates.
Geneva-based container giant Mediterranean Shipping Company SA said that “customers scheduled to transit the canal in the coming days should be prepared for possible schedule changes and wait for us to know how the situation will develop.”
France’s CMA CGM SA has stated that it is not yet considering the rerouting.
Rescue efforts continued to fail in Egypt on Thursday to topple Ever Given and allow the passage of ocean carriers carrying nearly $ 10 billion in oil and consumer goods.
Tugs and dredgers have yet to move the ship, and some experts say the crisis could drag on for days, or even weeks.
The Suez Canal Authority has temporarily suspended traffic.
A trip around the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa would extend the trip by 6,000 miles (about 10,000 kilometers) and increase the fuel costs of a supertanker carrying oil from the Middle East to Europe by about $ 300,000.
Owners of supertankers carrying 2 million barrels of cargo have been losing money on this traditional industrial trade route for weeks as OPEC + has intercepted millions of barrels and prevented them from entering the world market.
On Wednesday, however, carriers were able to welcome a recovery in profitability. Tariffs for smaller oil tankers are also increasing, and the revenues of oil-producing vessels sailing from the Middle East to Europe have also increased.
“The later, the more likely we are to feel the impact,” said Brian Gallagher, director of investor relations for Euronav NV, the world’s third-largest fleet of supertankers. – Remember a certain fragility of the infrastructure. People may decide that longer but more reliable transit is preferable. “
Ship brokers report that oil traders are increasingly hiring tankers with the “all-in-one” option to avoid Africa if the blockade continues.
Ships being emptied to load oil in northwestern Europe may be delayed and exporters in the region will be forced to seek alternative carriers, market participants say.
After the canal was blocked, rates for charter tankers began to rise in some regions. Suezmax ships, which typically carry 1 million barrels through the canal, now earn around $ 17,000 a day, mostly as of 2020. June. If ships are forced to avoid the southern Cape of Africa, this will increase not only the duration of the trip, but also the fares accordingly.
Braemar estimates that the canal currently intercepts about 2 million barrels of oil per day.
Congestion also affects bulk carriers carrying a variety of products, from wheat to iron ore. According to Peter Sand, chief shipping analyst at trade group BIMCO, there is currently a long line of bulk carriers – nearly 40 ships.
“If the situation is not resolved in the near future, the ships will soon have to go around the southern Horn of Africa,” Sand said. – Tanker rates are currently very low, so there will be an advantage here. Dry bulk products will work a little better. “
Prolonged blocking
The Suez Canal board has indicated that it will be necessary to excavate between 15 and 20 thousand. cubic meters of sand to deepen that part of the channel from 12 to 16 meters and move the boat.
Mohab Mamish, an adviser to Egyptian President Abdel Fattaho al Sisi on seaports, told AFP late Thursday that [kanalu] it will be updated again in a maximum period of 48-72 hours “.
“I have experience in various rescue operations of this type, and as a former chairman of the Suez Canal board, I know every inch of this canal,” said Mamish, who oversaw the development of the canal.
But rescue experts warned Thursday that Ever Given could be stuck for days or even weeks.
An elite team named Smit Salvage was sent to seize the ship.
Smit Salvage has previously contributed to the lifting of the Russian nuclear submarine Kursk and the capsized Italian cruiser Costa Concordia.
Evergreen said it had approached Smit Salvage and the Japanese company Nippon Salvage to develop a “more effective plan” to restore the ship’s buoyancy.
Smit Salvage said he sent his team to the crash site Thursday to assess what should be done.
The company says it has “emergency response bases” in Rotterdam, Houston, Cape Town and Singapore, in addition to rescuing ships, removing wreckage and pumping hazardous materials from stranded ships.
Oil rose nearly six percent in the Suez Canal on Wednesday due to the crisis.
However, prices fell again on Thursday, and at the same time the previous rise was completely eliminated.
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