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Mindaugas Stankūnas, member of the Council of Experts, professor at LSMU, and Professor Saulius Čaplinskas, specialist in communicable diseases, discussed the quarantine releases adopted by the Government on the relevant talk show “Dienas pjūvis”.
Layoffs needed, but not now?
“We have repeatedly discussed it in the Board of Experts in order to be released. <...> We see other things happening in parallel: the relatively good vaccination of people, especially the vaccination of people at risk, and the significant increase in testing. In fact, we have been thinking for a long time that it is possible to release some activities, ”said M. Stankūnas.
However, the expert doubts that the Government should have done it at this time, because according to the current epidemiological situation, Lithuania has entered the bleakest scenario.
“At least all of our calculations and predictions do not say that this curve should change its direction. Perhaps those releases would require something, but in the case of such bold and guaranteed commitments, as specific dates are set. <...> I don’t know, I think he’s a little too brave, “said the LSMU professor.
Although the government does not follow the quarantine release plan adopted a few months ago, M. Stankūnas assures that the situation has changed during that time, the virus has spread, so adherence to the plan is being adjusted.
“We will really observe, we will observe, we will listen to the arguments for and against and we will really try to find the best option. We are all very aware, both in the Board of Experts and in this program, both speaking and looking, that that quarantine lasts a long time , people are tired, the economy is tired, there are many different problems that need to be addressed in some way. Sometimes you also run a little higher risk, “said the interlocutor.
It is not the management professors who have to decide, but the medical professors.
Professor Saulius Čaplinskas stated that the logic of decision-making has been lacking since the beginning of the work of this Government.
“When it lags behind, when perhaps it is more determined by management professors than epidemiology and medicine professors, then perhaps we got stuck in such a situation. What was the narrative circulating now? a couple more hard weeks and then when we live, we will live. <...> It is important to be logical. The government meeting materials were not provided at all. That’s where the logic was in accepting it, ”said the professor.
After that, with the advent of vaccines, according to S. Čaplinskas, the communication focused on the message that it is necessary to get vaccinated as soon as possible, suffer, and then life will return to normal.
“We forgot a simple thing, it was practically said a year ago that a virus has come, which is basically a known virus, known as coronavirus, known to mutate, adapt to transmission from person to person, that the more it spreads, the faster it spreads ”, said the interlocutor.
Didn’t Šimonytė learn from Skvernelis’s mistakes?
According to S. Čaplinskas, the difficult situation of the coronavirus is also the legacy of the Government of Saulius Skvernelis, but S. Čaplinskas doubts that the Cabinet of Ministers of I. Šimonytė has changed anything significant.
“They don’t even understand the legacy they have, they take longer and walk the same path. As the esteemed counselors, continue with the narrative of the prohibitions. <...> With prohibitions exhausted long ago. When we talk about struggleWe are talking about what? About me, yours, the personal behavior of all of us. It has long been clear that the virus is spreading in the immediate vicinity.
<...> To determine for some experts, either Skvernelis or Šimonytė, how people should behave, was the first impact during the first quarantine. When people were very scared, they did not understand what it was about, and obediently obeyed, they did not even leave the house. <...> During that time, several mistakes were made, from which, let’s be frank, no lessons were learned, ”said S. Čaplinskas.
The company had to decide for itself if it could work.
According to S. Čaplinskas, it was immediately known that when a sufficient number of people gained immunity, this virus would become seasonal. According to the professor, people have become hostages of the quarantine situation.
“It will allow a teacher not to work in the market or open a decent one and things like that. It should not be about talking from the beginning, but about how to live the new reality, how to organize your personal life, your activities, your communication with other people so that it is as safe as possible ”, says S. Čaplinskas. convinced.
According to the professor, a long time ago it was necessary to set the conditions and give the company its own assessment of whether it was ready to operate or not.
“It just came to our attention then. I do not understand why the box, by setting certain rates, could not have been opened earlier. Trade in large supermarkets. Why some stores can work, others not, instead of explaining how to work as safely as possible, ”said S. Čaplinskas.
“Instructions are needed, as in each specific situation, what conditions must be met to make it as safe as possible,” he added.
As the situation worsens, intermediate solutions are needed
“I fully agree that a four-month quarantine is too long,” Stankūnas agreed.
According to him, when the number of cases reached several thousand, the strict quarantine helped reduce human contact and movement.
“Measures have been taken to stop the increase in cases,” explained the professor.
Speaking of shopping malls, M. Stankūnas pointed out that it is a place where people spend a lot of time and the contacts of those people are abundant. As a result, according to him, the commercial sector was restricted.
As of Monday, the retail sector will be unoccupied, but not all stores will be able to operate normally; some will not be able to operate on weekends. M. Stankūnas repeated the words of Prime Minister I. Šimonytė that such a decision would reduce the movement of people and contacts.
“The situation is difficult, as we can see, it is getting worse. We need to look for these intermediate solutions when we resume activities, but we apply certain restrictions so that the situation does not start to get worse, ”said the professor.
The decision of the authorities to limit the working hours of public catering establishments to 9:00 p.m. raised questions from the industry. However, while not shy about criticizing the government’s decisions, S. Čaplinskas supports this restriction.
“When the esteemed Prime Minister says that in the evening, after a drink, human behavior changes and becomes less safe, I understand this logic,” said S. Čaplinskas.
We move towards the darkest stage
A few weeks ago, after a meeting of the Council of Experts with President Gitanas Nausėda, M. Stankūnas presented three possible epidemiological scenarios for Lithuania due to the spread of the coronavirus: optimistic, moderate and pessimistic.
“Now we are heading towards that more pessimistic scenario,” admits M. Stankūnas.
According to the professor, if we had reached the medium scenario, the peak of the number of cases would reach between 1 and 1.2 thousand. cases per day.
“We can really say that the number will definitely be exceeded and maybe 3,000. We will not make it, as in the pessimistic scenario, but due to those activities released, we may have larger numbers,” said M. Stankūnas.
Still, the professor admits that the growth in the number of cases is slower compared to the decline.
“It just came to our knowledge then. But it is very difficult to decide how everything will be, how the releases will change,” said M. Stankūnas.
The news portal tv3.lt recalls that the quarantine is extended for another month. However, the government agreed that the quarantine regime will be significantly relaxed next week. First of all, supermarkets, cinemas and small events will be allowed.
The Cabinet extended the quarantine regime on Thursday until May 31 at 24:00.
The extension of the quarantine is proposed due to the recent deterioration of the epidemiological situation in the country.
“We agreed that it is proposed to extend the duration of the quarantine regime throughout the territory of the Republic of Lithuania for one more month,” said Health Minister Arūnas Dulkys at the meeting.
See the full discussion of M. Stankūnas and S. Čaplinskas in the “Section of the day” in the video at the top of the text.
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