Stankoon: We may have around 420 active cases of COVID-19 by the end of next week

“We have to say that we are experiencing the” second peak “of COVID-19 in Lithuania. Since the outbreak in Kaunas (July 15), there have been 187 new cases of coronavirus infection, and the number of patients (active cases) has increased from 209 to 330, ie. +121. This is a large increase, but it could have been much greater if the “second peak” scenarios of other countries (eg Australia, Montenegro, Bulgaria) had been repeated with us, “wrote M. Stankūnas on Facebook.

According to the scientist, we may be a little happy with that, but many of us have a question about further development.

“It is very difficult to try to predict it, because many factors work and the situation can change at any time.” But still … Well, I think it would be difficult to expect the curve to go down anytime soon. The geography of cases is expanding, the number of untraceable cases is increasing, import cases continue to contribute and that does not give reason for great optimism. However, I hope that in the near future Lithuania can avoid an exponential growth of cases, i. a sudden jump from the curve upwards, ”said M. Stankūnas.

According to the LSMU professor, this is based on the return of the masks, which in most cases are still associated with known fireplaces, intensive testing, good contact tracing, warm weather and outdoor weather, the awareness of many compatriots and certain Lithuanian character traits, for example. Significantly less use of physical contact in communication.

“Therefore, it is highly likely that we will see a moderate increase in COVID-19 cases in the near future.” Applying a simple linear regression model (see slide), we can assume that by the end of next week (if current trends continue and there are no new outbreaks and we pass the Sea Festival exam), we can have +/- 420 active cases of COVID -19. If my guesses were confirmed, I would say that considering all the circumstances, it would be a good result for Lithuania, ”said M. Stankūnas.

The second wave has not yet started.

Rolanda Lingienė, head of the Vilnius department of the National Center for Public Health (NVSC), commented on the current situation in the country on Thursday. More than 70 new coronavirus cases were recorded in five days.

“Most of the cases are related to existing chimneys. There are three active chimneys in Panevėžys. (…) The first in the sheriff’s office, there are 6 cases, there are 12 cases of illness, among the office employees and their relatives “, – R. Lingienė spoke about the fireplace in Panevėžys.

“Relatives of the sheriff’s office, including minors, have become ill, are attending preschool, the situation is under control,” he said.

As announced, this fireplace also housed a kindergarten in Panevėžys. The epidemiologist stated that there are currently around 10 active outbreaks in Lithuania.

“Probably the most common in Panevėžys, according to today’s data. (…) There are also chimneys: in Kėdainiai, Kaunas, Salininkai, we have around 10 active chimneys,” R. Lingienė told reporters. R. Lingienė, Head of the NVSC Vilnius Department, recalled that since Saturday August 1, protective masks will be mandatory in closed public places.

Delfi recalls that 19 new cases of coronavirus were confirmed last day, the total number reaches 2062, the Ministry of Health announced Thursday.