Six months of aspirations for Belarus freedom: repression intensifies, but potential for protests has not disappeared

Sunday is a day of solidarity with Belarus, which has been protesting in the country for half a year. The protesters are demanding the resignation of the autocrat Aliaksandr Lukashenko, the release of political prisoners and new elections.

The protests continue along with the protests. The January report by the human rights group Viasna said there were 220 political prisoners in Belarus, a number that is set to rise sharply. More than 1,000 people have been prosecuted and the persecution of human rights activists is particularly worrying.

Viasna experts note that repression in Belarus is intensifying and the human rights situation is deteriorating.

Society has changed

Belarusian analyst Kaciaryna Schmacina says that public attitudes have changed in the last six months: she realized that there is a majority of protesters, that most people are not happy. the status quo and mode. In addition, says K.Šmacina, the people were visited by a feeling of moral victory, the Belarusian identity was reborn.

“Before the mass protests, a large part of Belarusian society was apolitical. And the fact that more and more people are coming together to create civic initiatives is in itself a victory.” 15 minutes she said.

When asked about the protesters’ achievements, V. Jurkonis suggests imagining a similar problem for Adolf Ramanauskas Vanagas in 1948.

“I am thickening my colors and deliberately presenting painful parallels so that you understand that this is not a computer game or academic talk about the power of civil society in Belarus. Tens of thousands were arrested, thousands were forced to leave, hundreds were tortured and crippled and almost ten died. This is at the expense of the Belarusian regime and yet the people have the will and the courage to continue the protest. The essential result of the protests is, above all, the unmasking of the regime.

The protests brought to the surface the systemic coercion, self-centeredness and corruption of the authorities, masked for years by censorship and coercive self-censorship, fueled by the constant belief of the regime that the person in question is a lonely and isolated phenomenon. Talks about the brutality of the regime and crimes through protests can take place not only in kitchens, but also openly, but also in the international community. ” 15 minutes said the political scientist.

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According to V. Jurkonis, the second victory is the unmasking of A. Lukashenko’s “multi-vector foreign policy”.

“Civil diplomacy, even though it does not have the infrastructure still controlled by the regime, but is now inoperative, has opened the doors to Belarus in half a year, which until now could not be opened for a simple lack of content.

“Belarusian state diplomacy is a quick credit quest, and civic democracy is based on the principles of neighboring cultural values ​​that we see in Alexeievich’s books: a civil society that reflects itself and Europe,” he said.

Indifference is a pillar of the regime

Belarus is not at a tipping point when the Lukashenko regime is under threat. If in the first months of the protest his position fluctuated, now the autocrat has refocused his power, says K. Šmacina.

She identifies repressive mechanisms, security personnel and Russia’s continued support for Lukashenko as the main pillars of the regime.

Secondary to the analyst, V. Jurkonis also names indifference and fear on the part of the international community and part of society as the pillar of the regime.

“In 1948, we probably also expected more support from the West, so it is sometimes surprising to the surprise of some ‘rational thinkers’: and what else can we do? After all, the member states, not the citizens of Belarus or Sviatlana Cichanouskaya, vote in international institutions like the United Nations or the OSCE, ”said the political scientist.

The world’s attention has also recently turned to Russia. When opponent Alexei Navaln returned to the country in January and was poisoned with the nerve-paralyzing substance Novičiok half a year ago, he was soon jailed. During two weekends, protests were held in more than 100 cities, which were brutally repressed. In total, more than 10,000 were arrested. persons.

The West is talking about new sanctions on Russia and analysts predict the country will have a turbulent year before the fall parliamentary elections.

Schmacina says that, on the one hand, protests in Russia, when protesters express their support for Belarusians, can be inspiring.

“However, I am afraid that under pressure from Russian leaders at home, he will be inclined to maintain an authoritarian system in Belarus, to support the status quo“, – assured the analyst.

Speaking of the situation in Russia, V. Jurkonis says that he is not sure whether it is appropriate to describe it with the word “riots”.

“I hope this helps us understand that what is happening in the neighborhood is not a matter for a politician or a country. That it is not just an episodic” malaise. “

The greater mobility of people, the change of generations, the technologies that bring their own colors and possibilities are changing people’s attitudes towards the states of the regime. We know from our history that you can try to stop freedom, lock it up in bars, but it is extremely difficult to kill it. ” 15 minutes said the political scientist.

Whats Next?

In the winter, the nature of the protests changed: large crowds no longer gather in city centers, groups of protesters march into sleeping areas.

Schmacina says that the scale of repression in Belarus is now greater than ever, so in such an atmosphere of terror, protests should not be expected to reach their goal overnight.

According to the analyst, the democratic opposition in Belarus and the most active protesters hope to be able to consolidate again in the spring.

“It just came to our notice then. In the winter months, it is less visible, but it will remain.

However, the regime is also using this period to deal with any political or civic initiative, there are more political prisoners, etc. It is not clear if so many protesters will be able to reappear on the streets in such a repressive environment. ” 15 minutes she said.

According to V. Jurkonis, the loyalty of the international community to human rights and the rule of law should not be defined by the scope of the protests.

“There is a lot of material for the position of principle and let us remember that nothing has changed, because the crimes have already been committed: torture, concentration camps, persecution of victims and their helpers, financial persecution of activists.

One can hope, one can predict, but I have repeatedly heard comments that 10 thousand. people in Minsk are very few, they need at least a hundred. One hundred thousand two appeared. What has changed for us since then? Has our determination changed since then? Are we waiting for what? Half a million? Three? Minsk? Are you already in Lithuania? When do Belarusians deserve our attention for what they are doing, not for the headline we can write or how much click’ Will we be able to generate? ”Said the political scientist.