Short can win again: what awaits the world

– What differences do you see between this year and 2016? Presidential election of the United States?

– 2016 Trump supporters were angry and Clinton was overjoyed, calm. Now both sides are angry. There are no more compromises in between, and even no matter who wins, it will be difficult for losers’ supporters to recognize the results. I predict that issues related to the electoral process (for example, the exclusion of certain voters from the polls or the vote-by-mail controversy) will be significantly more important this year than in 2016.

Another important difference from 2016. – It is international trade as a political issue. Before the 2016 election, most polls showed little support for free trade. It was some kind of anomaly because Americans have historically always supported free trade. Current surveys, at least at the national level, show a return to support for free trade and free trade agreements. This is largely supported by Democrats, who are now in favor of free trade because they see Trump as the enemy of free trade. So now supporting free trade is the same as being against Trump. In any case, the issue of trade this year will be particularly linked to China.

The third difference between 2016 and 2020 is that Democrats understand that Trump can win. This could lead Democratic voters not to stay home in November, even if they are not impressed with Democratic candidate Joe Biden.

Finally, mistrust in the press and media has grown significantly in the past four years.

– Four years ago, in an interview with the Lithuanian media, you said that the only thing clear about 2016 The United States presidential election is unknown. What about this year’s elections?

– I think it will stay in 2020. While polls show Biden, we know from 2016. example, that statewide polls can be very inaccurate. We’re not sure issues like reluctance to answer survey questions or Trump’s embarrassment syndrome have been resolved.

Little-known polling firm Trafalgar Group, which was one of the few to predict D. Trump in 2016. Happiness in key states like Pennsylvania recently circulated polls showing that elections are going from one point to another in Florida, Wisconsin and Michigan. If Trump wins in these three states in 2020, it’s hard to imagine him losing the general election for the Electoral College. But other polls show that Trump is losing in these crucial states. So, as in 2016, we just don’t know what will happen on Election Day.

– Are the Black Lives Matter protests and riots against or in favor of Trump?

– Until now, the Black Lives Matter protests have negatively affected Trump for two reasons. First, most people believe that police treatment of African Americans is a problem, and there is general support for the protests. Trump’s calls for aggressive action against protesters (although, it is true, separated the protesters and the protesters) were not well received.

Also, the riots in the streets due to the protests make people feel that things are out of control in the country. People feel confused and divided and want someone to join them. Trump does not, although I probably belong to a minority of academics and commentators who believe he has taken a step in that direction in his speech at Mount Rushmore on July 3.

On the other hand, I think the people who have even supported the protesters are starting to tire of the riots and don’t like the protesters forcing the monuments. If Trump can link Biden to that behavior, it could dramatically reduce support for Biden, especially among higher-ranking voters.

– What impact does the recent publication of former national security adviser John Bolton’s book and other political scandals (impeachment on Ukraine, etc.) have on Trump’s popularity?

I don’t think any of these events have had a significant impact on Trump’s popularity. On the contrary, they could have given a new impetus to their electoral base, and undecided voters ignore these attacks because they see them as political struggles or, as in Bolton’s case, someone is just trying to sell a book.

– Has the COVID-19 pandemic changed American political sentiment? If so, how did it happen?

COVID-19 is probably a big problem for D. Trump due to his attempt not to take the virus seriously. Along with street protests, this evokes in Americans the feeling that things are out of control in the country. Unlike 2016, when voters were looking for what would shake the situation, they can now do more for stability. Additionally, COVID-19 is particularly intimidating to older Americans, whose voices are crucial to election results.

– And how would you rate Mr. Biden and his chances of becoming the next President of the United States? How does the Democratic Party look at the moment?

– If the elections were to take place today, I think Mr. Biden would win, but by a very small margin. It is important to remember that elections will only take place in four months. Trump has only very slowly launched his ad campaign, and Biden is vulnerable.

First, he is very old (77 years old – past ed.). To run for president. There are also questions about your health, as you often struggle to find the right words to answer the questions.

Even with his hypocrisy, it must be admitted that Biden never appeared talented during the election campaign. It really is not the same as Bill Clinton or Barack Obama. He has tried twice to fight for the presidency, but has never been among serious candidates for the Democratic nomination.

In addition, he has controversial luggage that Trump will use during the election campaign. For example, Mr. Biden plagiarized homework at a law school. He also plagiarized speeches during previous attempts to become president.

Finally, Biden is not a very good participant in the debate, as the early Democratic elections have shown. National electoral debates are often said to be unimportant, but this year things can change.

– Would you change and how would you change the foreign policy of the United States if there were changes in the White House?

– I think that our common foreign policy would remain relatively unchanged. The rhetoric would be different, since President Biden would speak much more cautiously, not wanting to offend our allies. However, the United States, for example, would continue to pressure NATO allies to increase defense spending, but would do so more quietly.

At the same time, I would not expect “President Biden” to demand so much of our allies in Asia to pay more for our military bases in their countries. Biden would also try to renew the agreement on Iran’s nuclear program and return the United States to the Paris agreement on climate change. In terms of trade, Mr. Biden can return to the Pacific Partnership and the Transatlantic Trade Agreement with Europe. Although I doubt that trade is at the center of Biden’s foreign policy, as is now the case with the Trump administration.

– What can the US allies in Europe, NATO and elsewhere expect in the next four years if Trump is re-elected?

– This is a more difficult issue, but if I were one of the European leaders, I would take seriously the threats of introducing car import tariffs in the United States. The Supreme Court has rejected this term to consider a case that could limit the president’s power to impose tariffs for reasons of national security. It is a very interesting legal question whether Trump can act according to a Commerce Department report, but I’m not sure if Trump’s opponents will win this case in court. Tariffs for European automakers are more likely than tariffs for Japanese automakers because Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has done more than most European leaders to build a good relationship with Trump.

If Trump is reelected, NATO leaders will have to take even more seriously the call to increase defense spending to 2%. of the GDP requirement. Otherwise, Trump will press to withdraw even more troops from Europe.

Overall, I suppose Trump will focus more on China and Asia than on Europe. Of course, issues like allowing Huawei to participate in the development of 5G connectivity will link Trump’s vision of Europe with his concerns about China.