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The pandemic wave has hit Italy hard again: according to Johns Hopkins University, 208,522 new infections and 4,811 new deaths were registered in the country last week.
Of the more than 52,000 victims of the virus in the country since the start of the pandemic, more than 20,000 represent 10.1 million. the population of Lombardy, which also includes the province of Bergamo with its 1.1 million population.
But now the geography of the pandemic is quite different from that of spring.
“Bergamo and Lodi: herd immunity is a fact,” read the headline of the Italian daily Il Fatto Quotidiano at the end of October. The Lombardy region has a clear pattern: In the provinces most affected by the virus in February-March, infection rates are now clearly low, according to the article.
In the province of Bergamo, the infection is spreading more slowly throughout the Lombardy region. According to the daily calculation, within three weeks, starting on October 2. By October and October 23, the number of infections in the Bergamo province had risen by only 6.9 percent, while in the regional capital Milan, where the first wave was relatively mild, that number has risen to a 60.7 percent.
This is Bergamo in March:
The first city on the continent to have herd immunity?
“As a result, herd immunity is already in force in Bergamo: the spread of COVID-19 is much slower because a large number of the population has already acquired immunity,” Luca Lorini, head of the Hospital’s emergency department, told the newspaper. Pope Giovanni XIII in Bergamo.
Scientific studies have revealed that in the spring, 35 to 40 percent. People in the province of Bergamo have already been exposed to the coronavirus and now have antibodies against it, Lorini said. And that’s just the provincial average. In small towns, Alcane and Nembro say, antibodies to coronavirus hit 60 percent. population.
One such study was carried out in July in the province-owned Seriana Valley: Blood tests revealed that up to 9,000 of the 21,500 adults tested already had antibodies against the COVID-19 agent, and only 154 of them still had detectable coronavirus in the larynx and nasopharynx. informed the local health service.
Research Shows: Bergamo claims to enter coronavirus history for the second time, this time as the first city and region on the continent to demonstrate herd immunity.
Then the main danger of a pandemic, the exponential growth of infections, would be reduced and strict quarantine restrictions would no longer be necessary, said the daily Die Welt, who spoke with a doctor from Bergamo L. Lorini.
This is how Bergamo looked at the end of May:
Herd immunity or just fear?
However, L. Lorini pointed out that in addition to herd immunity, there is another psychological explanation: people in the province of Bergamo are extremely cautious because they have not yet evaporated the fear that triggered the pandemic outbreak in February and March. Also, the antibodies in the blood will disappear after a while, and then there will be no protection against the new infection.
Virologist Massimo Galli, head of the department of infectious diseases at the Luigi Sacco Hospital in Milan, said in an interview with the daily Die Welt that he did not dare to specify how long the coronavirus antibodies remain in the blood.
“Some patients take months for the antibodies to disappear, others no longer after a few weeks,” he said.
But there is also another local immunity: It protects the airways from reinfection, Galli noted.
A Milan virologist said he has only found two cases of coronavirus reinfection so far.
“It was definitely a new infection, because a second strain of the virus was detected in the second infection,” he said. The consolation is that in both cases, the reinfection passed easily.
The research suggests that Galli is optimistic: “I am sure that the vast majority of people who have been infected at the same time will not become re-infected at all or if they contract it when they come into contact with another strain of coronavirus.”
At the same time, he recognized the need for intensive scientific research on reinfection, which is crucial given the potential impact of vaccination.
Academics speak of ‘citizen capital’
Researchers from the University of Bergamo presented the latest study on herd immunity this Monday, November 23, to parliamentarians, administrators and industry in the province of Bergamo. The study was prepared by three economics professors: Paolo Buonanno, Sergio Galletta and Marcello Puca.
It’s true that the content of the study has not yet been submitted for review to scientific journal reviewers, which means that approval from the world of science has yet to be approved, but a great deal of research work has been done, he wrote. the regional press of Bergamo.
According to the study authors, during the first wave of COVID-19, 36% were infected with this virus. provincial population (40% in Bergamo, 29% in Lodi, 19% in Brescia). Compared to the first wave of COVID-19 deaths with infections in the past two months, since September 1. until November 1. In numbers, the researchers found that the number of new infections in the province dropped by an average of 30 percent in the fall.
Professors from the University of Bergamo, such as the Milan virologist M. Galli, speculate that, in addition to herd immunity, such a reduction in the number of infections is due to responsible behavior of citizens, hygiene and compliance with pandemic regulations .
The hit of the first wave has taught people to behave in a more responsible way, I wanted to work with management and now we have what is called ‘citizen capital’ in the economy.
These two factors, herd immunity and “citizen capital”, explain the current gap between the slow dynamics of infections in the province of Bergamo and their rapid spread in the rest of Lombardy.
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