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Poland is still fighting intensely against the coronavirus, with up to 500 new cases registered every day. The situation in Belarus, where the number of new cases is slowly decreasing, remains a cause for concern. The situation is similar in Russia, where the outbreak is also uncontrollable.
According to scientists, there should be concern about the situation in Kaliningrad: unlike the rest of Russia, in the past the situation here was similar to that of Lithuania, and recently the morbidity is growing and its size exceeds the situation in Lithuania almost three times . This is likely due to the flow of people and transport between Königsberg and the rest of Russia.
Scientists warn: pandemic in Baltic countries has been suppressed, but human flows need to be controlled
Lithuania and Latvia are better
LSMU and LEI researchers point out the situation in Lithuania, and especially in Latvia: morbidity and mortality in these countries is the lowest in the entire region. It should be noted that the situation in Russia and Belarus remains difficult to assess due to artificially low statistical indicators in these countries due to the different registration methodology.
According to the researchers, the general situation suggests that human flows still need to be controlled, especially from countries with high morbidity rates.
The researchers point to another interesting circumstance: the available data shows that, due to the better situation, the population of the Baltic States is by no means exclusively genetically resistant to the virus, because in Belarus, whose population is genetically close to Lithuania, the incidence she’s very tall.
Scientists warn: pandemic in Baltic countries has been suppressed, but human flows need to be controlled
The analysis carried out compares the epidemiological situation in Lithuania with the application of different epidemic management scenarios. This is an attempt to assess whether the Lithuanian health care system could cater for increased patient flows.
It is remarkable that after applying the Belarusian scenario in Lithuania, we would have almost 8 times more people infected with coronavirus. Furthermore, the data from the last days shows that the scenario is not the worst in the entire region in terms of morbidity, but not in Sweden.
Scientists warn: pandemic in Baltic countries has been suppressed, but human flows need to be controlled
Looking at the total number of deaths, significant differences can be seen. Judging by the Swedish scenario, today we would have about 18 times more deaths in Lithuania. It is difficult to compare the situation with the data from Russia and Belarus, since you can also see different methods to record deaths. The researchers point out that the actual situation will only be possible to determine later on by comparing the total number of deaths in countries during the same period.
Scientists warn: pandemic in Baltic countries has been suppressed, but human flows need to be controlled
We cannot go back to the previous level.
The LSMU and LEI researchers note that Lithuania is slowly returning to normal population mobility, visiting nature more and more often, and the time they spend at work is even shorter than before quarantine. On some days, people’s visits to public places are even less than the usual average for a short period of time. However, in the last days of May, population mobility had not yet returned to pre-quarantine levels (see Figures 5 and 6).
Although workers constantly return to work, researchers note that returns are slower, and some workers also choose the alternative of working from home or elsewhere. According to the researchers, it is even possible that we will not go back to the previous level and some employees will stay to work remotely, from other places (see Figures 7 and 8).
Summarizing the data from different countries, it can be seen that people across Europe still spend more time at home than usual. Statistics show that most countries still apply one form or another of quarantine measures. Recently, Belarus has also been restricting presence in public spaces and at work (see Figure 9).
LSMU and LEI researchers and members of the public group www.united4health.lt conduct epidemiological monitoring of the spread of COVID-19 infection in Lithuania and regularly publish the latest modeling and prognostic results on the website https: / /lsmuni.lt.
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