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President Gitanas Nausėda met with members of the Council of Health Experts in the Presidency on Thursday. They made their recommendations to control the spread of Covid-19.
The peak will come soon
As Simon Krephtta, the president’s senior adviser, said Thursday, the latest predictions from scientists about the development of the virus suggest that we could reach a peak in the near future.
“As you know, the situation remains difficult, but at the same time, various prognostic models suggest that the peak of infections can be reached within 7 or 14 days.
<...> Clearly, the surge in infections this past weekend made the outlook negative. But at the same time, the peaks are visible on the horizon. It is likely that if the quarantine conditions remain effective, they will be observed, the peak of the pandemic can be reached in 7 to 14 days, ”S. Kėpšta told reporters.
Secondary expert and data management dr. Vaidotas Žemlys-Balevičius, noting that the epidemic situation in Lithuania is still not improving.
“Although the quarantine has begun, we still do not see the expected drop in all cases. The scenarios predict that the peak will remain on November 27. If the quarantine measures are effective, then there will be a decrease from that peak, “V. Žemlys-Balevičius told reporters on Thursday.
I would like to follow a new indicator
A group of scientists from the presidency suggested following a new indicator that would show how much a person with the Covid-19 virus can infect others.
“If the epidemic were unmanageable, the Covid-19 figure would be around 2.5-3, and it currently stands at 1.37 due to the current measures. When it falls below unity, we will see that the epidemic subsides, because then a person infected infects fewer people, ”said V. Žemlys-Balevičius.
Until this indicator falls below one, we cannot speak of the end of the quarantine.
“It will be possible to speak of the end of the quarantine when we see a decrease in cases and that reproductive number falls below one. We don’t see it yet. We can’t really speak of a shorter quarantine, “added the data management expert.
Recommend opening data to anyone
The question of data quality was also discussed in the Presidency. S. Krėpšta emphasized that there is currently a lack of qualitative data on the incidence of Covid-19.
“The lack of good data makes it difficult to respond and take the most effective measures. The Council made specific recommendations on how to process data more efficiently and professionally so that crisis management is more efficient in the future,” said the Adviser to the President.
According to V. Žemlis-Balevičius, inaccurate data does not allow us to determine exactly why the epidemic is occurring or how best to manage it. Therefore, the academics made their recommendations to the presidency.
“The key recommendations are that as much data as possible be made publicly available, open, freely available, and released at a certain time each day, and that there be a single source and not debate what data is. Really.
It is also recommended that automatic data quality controls be implemented so that there are no frustrating errors when, for example, hospitals do not provide data or provide the wrong number of patients and then we see a false situation, ”said V. Žemlys-Balevičius .
More than 1.5 thousand. cases
In the last day, 1,553 new cases of Covid-19 disease have been confirmed in Lithuania, nine people have died from coronavirus, the Ministry of Health reported this Thursday.
Eleven others died from other causes.
Since the start of the pandemic, COVID-19 has infected 29,000 people in the country. 812 people, 22 thousand. 382 – still ill, 7096 – recovered.
A total of 244 people died from coronavirus in Lithuania and 91 people died from other causes.
The isolation currently contains 84 thousand. 24 people.
As of June 1, 433 import cases had been registered in Lithuania.
Last day to investigate 14 thousand. 455 samples for suspected coronavirus. So far a total of 1 million have been investigated. 146 thousand 969 samples.
He brought together a group of researchers
The Board of Health Experts analyzes, evaluates and makes recommendations to the responsible authorities to stop the spread of the virus. It also seeks to ensure that pandemic management plans are effectively implemented through the formation of a new ruling majority and a change in the leadership of the Ministry of Health.
The activities of the expert group are organized into three subgroups: analysis and quantification of the situation, public health measures, personal health care facilities and treatment of individuals, to seek answers to key questions related to the management of the pandemic and health human.
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