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Scientists speak of the third wave of coronavirus already emerging in Lithuania, and Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė is not about easing the quarantine, but about tightening it.
In Vilnius, queues of people lurk near shops and residents await news of even more relaxed restrictions. However, the Prime Minister does not wrap himself in cotton; one should expect tightening rather than liberalization.
“I’m not ruling out that it may be necessary to consider certain adjustments,” said I. Šimonytė.
A strain of coronavirus originating from the Republic of South Africa was first detected in the laboratory of the Santara clinics. A case of the mutation was found in a sample taken from a resident of the Kėdainiai district on March 2, another person living with her lives in Vilnius. Both patients say that they did not visit abroad, mostly only in contact with relatives.
The South African mutation could be even more dangerous than the British one.
“There is no doubt that it spreads more intensely between people, that its ability to infect, to spread from person to person is greater,” says oncologist Marius Strioga.
It’s scary that the PAR strain is so much more resistant to vaccines.
Researchers are frightened by the fact that the South African strain is much more resistant to the Pfizer, Moderna and AstraZeneca vaccines currently used in Lithuania.
“Those antibodies are not able to bind to that coronavirus protein as effectively, their ability to surround and neutralize that virus may be significantly less,” says Strioga.
Researchers are still studying the extent to which the strain is resistant to a particular vaccine.
“Especially the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, which are generally the earliest and their main data are with that original strain of the virus. That immune response is less effective. Its effectiveness in clinical trials can be 10 to 30 percent of that found. in the original strain of the virus, ”said M. Strioga.
“There is a risk of vaccination. Other varieties, increased risk of disease, risk of possibly more serious disease. Here we are already talking about the risk of vaccination and it is definitely not something we can joke about, ”says I. Šimonytė.
It is true that not all vaccines have an “African” mutation. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine, which has already been approved in Europe, and the pending Novavax vaccine, according to the researchers, are more effective at treating coronavirus strains. Manufacturers of the first vaccines are also looking for ways to improve their formulations.
Bad situation not only in Vilnius and Marijampolė
Coronavirus mutations were more frequent in southeastern Lithuania. Of the big cities, Marijampolė and Vilnius look worse. It is around the capital where morbidity rates are currently the worst.
The worst situation is in the Širvintos district, followed by the Visaginas, Vilnius, Švenčionys and Vilnius city districts.
“849 cases were detected yesterday, which is the highest number on January 28,” says Mindaugas Stankūnas, a member of the Council of Health Experts.
I. Šimonytė does not rule out the possibility that a stricter quarantine may begin to operate in these municipalities in the near future.
“In those municipalities where the situation is deteriorating, Vilnius is among them, I think unfortunately, but this week Vilnius will be a black municipality in terms of the number of cases, not only in terms of the number of positive tests. It is now that I see no reason to talk about major exemptions without proper controls. I really don’t see any reason for big movements, big parties, big gatherings during Easter, ”says I. Šimonytė.
Santara Clinics notices third wave signals
Santara clinics also see third wave signals.
“The increase in the number of patients is not drastically large, but it is higher than in the last two weeks. Today, we have about 70 percent of resuscitation beds occupied, compared to 55 percent a year ago. couple of weeks, ”said Aušra Bilotienė-Motiejūnienė, managing director of the Santara Clinics.
The researchers present 3 scenarios of what Lithuania’s morbidity rates can look like below. The most optimistic forecast indicates that the growth of new cases should not be delayed, that morbidity could fall again in mid-April.
The average scenario shows that in mid-April there may be more than a thousand new cases per day in Lithuania.
According to the saddest forecast, a third bright wave could occur in Lithuania in April.
“We see the so-called third wave and it can be really big, which in its size can be equal to the situation in December,” says M. Stankūnas.
According to experts, in the worst case, 3,000 new infections could be detected in Lithuania by the end of May per day.
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