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The researcher also spoke to the news portal tv3.lt about vaccination and predicted that it should start in the first quarter of next year, with significant changes to be seen in the first half of the year.
“I don’t think there will be an effect in a week or two, but in the first half of the year we could see significant changes. There would not be such terrible jumps as we see now.
Of course, in addition to the standard measures of wearing masks and washing hands, there would also be a vaccine, which would certainly greatly reduce the chances of spreading the virus, especially in asymptomatic patients. I think it would be great if we could celebrate Jonines in a group of friends, “said G. Valinčius.
In the interview with him, we also talked about quarantine, the rapidly growing number of Covid-19 cases, changes in testing, the cost of testing, and how the virus damages not only the lungs but also the human brain or others. organs.
PHOTO GALLERY. Director of the Life Sciences Center of the University of Vilnius Gintaras Valinčius
What do you think could have led to a19 jumps, could it have been influenced by biological causes or virus transformations?
In my opinion, there were definitely no mutations that changed the virus and made it more dangerous. The virus is the same as before.
Clearly, those mutations, not just the covid agent, but others, are constantly happening, the rate of mutations is different, but it is not something special. However, most mutations do not alter the characteristics of the virus to the point of altering the epidemiological situation.
There is not a single non-mutant virus in the world, but out of millions of mutations, only one can be more dangerous.
Why is the number of cases so high in Lithuania?
In the spring, Lithuania did very well and one of the reasons for its success was that the society was mobilized with great force. Lithuanian citizens were scared, it is natural, and they took precautions: they did not meet, they closed, they did not communicate, parents did not meet their children, vacations were interrupted, funerals were accompanied by two or three people.
Public mobilization and the media managed to stop the first wave. However, there was another price for that medal: losses in business, manufacturing, or the service sector.
The opposite effect of the first wave became habit. The number of cases began to fall sharply in May, with every reason to quarantine and leave only certain restrictions.
The concentration that helped us overcome that challenge in March and April and the first wave, to make it very low with low mortality, ended that period and began a return to normal life.
Importantly, this pathogen is very insidious. All the people with symptoms (two or three walking beside us) are completely asymptomatic.
Now, at the Life Sciences Center, we have started testing surfaces, not people, but the building. Using forensic methods and further individual testing, we identified and highlighted four asymptomatic carriers of the virus during the week. Those users had absolutely no symptoms, not even a whore.
But those people came to work every day and left virus particles on their desk, on their handles. Here is the danger of the disease that we have a large proportion of carriers who have no symptoms.
We closed in the spring and those asymptomatic people did not have the opportunity to transmit the virus to those around them, but in the summer all the conditions arose, because the vigilance of the people fell asleep, everyone relaxed.
If a person is asymptomatic: he goes to work, goes to parties, meets friends, jumps, drinks from the same glass, smokes the same cigarette. He feels nothing. Here is the reason for the second wave.
How do you think Covid-Could the number of 19 cases continue to increase or even double?
How citizens respond to quarantine restrictions is crucial. Growth can be. Most likely, the number of cases will increase slightly as the incubation phase of infections is 3 to 7 days. It can happen in any way. Many asymptomatic and now walking, exchanging viral material with healthy people.
I’m sure the strict quarantine measures in place will help. There should be a total closure, no retreats or gatherings, coffees, weddings or funerals. If everything really closes, people will behave appropriately, they will not leave the house, they will buy once a week, they will manage things remotely; this, in my opinion, we can stabilize between 1.5 and 2 thousand. cases per day, an advance may start later.
If people react inappropriately and tell them to spit out that virus, then that number will go up and I see no reason why it shouldn’t grow to 3 or 5 thousand a day. That is the nature of that infection.
The path of transmission is human communication. This had to be remembered during the summer not only by the government but also by all citizens. This disease is insidious. You can talk to someone who seems healthy, but is not healthy and transmits a virus to you. And here it will depend on the success, whether you go to bed with an oxygen mask or the same asymptomatic walk and transmit that virus to other people.
How are the tests currently being performed? Would changes be needed to speed up traceability?
The Life Sciences Center has decided to reopen a temporary diagnostic testing laboratory. The situation in the state is really complicated.
Testing capabilities are needed to clarify asymptomatic cases, which Lithuania does not have. You can’t blame the authorities here, there is a lot of money, huge funds here.
By my estimates, a test day might be better for the pros, but certainly at least half a million. Test alone: no oxygen masks, no beds, no treatment, no sample collection. Only the laboratory tests are half a million every day.
That half a million could go to kindergartens, school renovations, universities, laboratories. Now we spend that money only on tests.
Testing is not a panacea. It is very necessary, but you need to understand how many trained people can do the tests, how much money you have to buy reagents. That money has to be taken from somewhere. Half a million a day. 7-8 million per month for testing.
He has developed a group testing methodology. When could it be applied in Lithuania and how would it be carried out?
Specialists from the Life Sciences Center developed a methodology for group tests. We did a medical exam. The lab work has now been completed, we have developed a recommendation and will propose to implement this group testing methodology in the testing centers.
Group testing will reduce costs to the state. For example, around 15,000 are now being made a day. tests, let’s take the average, about 20 euros per test, that’s 300 thousand. during the day. 3 million in ten days and around 9 million a month in reagents. Of those 9 million, we hope to be able to save the state about 6-7 million euros.
Now these tests will be more focused on medical professionals. The cost saving potential of this test is highly dependent on prevalence, from a partially positive result across the entire test portion. This test works very well when there are 1 or 2 out of 100 people. This works very well with medical or nursing staff. But it can also be applied to the general population, to the entire population.
How does it work? We get 100 samples and let’s say 5 samples are positive, that’s 5 percent. Now, the 100 samples are placed separately in the samples and analyzed. We offer those 100 samples grouped in groups of 5 to 20.
We will put them all in a jar and mix. After doing the test and seeing that they are negative, we can say that the 5 are negative because we mix and distribute the viral material. We did a measurement instead of 5. If we mix 5 and find the sign that the virus is present, then we take those 5 samples again, we do not group them and we do each one separately. So we find it positive. By grouping the samples in this way instead of 100 measurements, we can find those 5 positives by taking only 20 measurements. For coverage, we could take 25 measurements.
He also belongs to a group of scientific experts who advise the Government. What were the predictions of the spread of the virus or did they come true? Have you perhaps talked about what we can expect in the future?
There is a lot of work in that group and a lot is said about the spread of the virus in different communities. But the main factor in the spread of this infection is human contact. A vaccine would solve this problem, but to this day we do not have it.
Predicting is really difficult and I, as a scientist observing the situation, can say that I myself was much more cautious in the shops in spring, trying to maintain a distance of 5 meters, when I heard that something was wrong, I walked 10 meters to the field.
Now I don’t and hundreds of thousands of people no longer do it because they have gotten used to it, they are no longer paying attention to these things and we have the result: those numbers every day.
There will always be those who do not understand anything and those who understand everything. The most important thing is where that majority will move: either towards a rejectable and frivolous approach to a very serious pathogen, or a return to the reaction that occurred in the spring. Then we will get through very quickly and have a safe Christmas. Not for 20-30 people in a room at a common table, but we can enjoy a small family circle.
I am concerned about the speeches of politicians, educated people who are known in society for their status. They allow themselves to interpret and improvise on the subject very easily, evoking in their speeches a lax approach to a very serious subject. This is a big problem.
Perhaps researchers are noticing if the coronavirus can damage not only the lungs but also other organs such as the brain?
At present, there are also several opinions and studies that can damage more than the surface of the lung tissue, the intestines, the heart or the circulatory system. There may also be damage to the brain.
This reaffirms that the virus is also very dangerous for young people. They sometimes suffer with very few or no symptoms. Today, scientists still don’t know all the consequences. It will certainly be explored for many years to come.
Now I see a representative from show business who brags on social media that she’s gotten sick, she’s a bit messed up, but she looks cool and similar.
I was wondering if you are really sure your liver won’t respond after 15 years or something else will happen. Science to this day does not know the long-term consequences. As a result, people really need to understand that these are risks whose dangers are unclear. Therefore, one cannot look at it lightly, as the Americans say: “Better safe than sorry”; Better to be safe than sorry for what you didn’t do.
Watch how your Covid-19 tests are done:
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