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As explained by the professor after the meeting of the Council of Health Experts with the President, a retrospective analysis tried to assess how and when the quarantine plans proposed by the Commission of Government Experts announced yesterday should be applied.
The tv3.lt portal recalls that it has announced four scenarios proposed by experts, the measures applied during them and the principles of creating bubbles of social support for each quarantine scenario.
Scenario A would mean living without major restrictions, Scenario D would mean strict quarantine measures.
We say that Lithuania, according to these foreseen criteria, foreseen in the project of quarantine levels, already had to end its life on September 20 in scenario A. According to epidemiological indicators, we had already passed to level B by then. It lasted until October 21. and then we were already living at level C.
Interestingly, this level, the closest to strict quarantine, ended on November 7. This is in line with the plan the government is considering, which was presented by experts on November 7. we had to adopt the strictest measures that day. As we know, they only applied on December 16, “said M. Stankūnas.
He added that the forecasts presented to the group on December 15 have also been revised. As it turned out, they turned out to be quite accurate.
“Let’s say we forecast 65,800 active cases this Sunday, we know there were 67,500. We were a bit wrong, but I think we can say we name that situation quite accurately. So, we are of the opinion that if this model is implemented, then in January we will find ourselves in a much better state of mind than now, ”said the scientist.
What do the 4 scenarios look like?
Four scenarios are based on the number of new cases per 100,000. population in 14 days:
Scenario A. Reaching less than 25 cases per 100,000. population within 14 days, with a positive test ratio of no more than 4% and an effective contact tracing and testing system, most restrictions can be removed.
In such a scenario, internal restrictions would remain virtually non-existent. In certain places, visitor flows would be regulated and arrivals and departures from the country would be controlled.
Scenario B. After reaching 25-100 cases, 100 thousand. population in 14 days, possible transition from national restrictions to location; quarantine applies to the most proliferative activities.
Contacts of more than three households would be banned and higher education activities would be carried out remotely. General education would not be universally restricted, the possibility of local restrictions would remain. In stores and other outlets, customer flows are restricted and special service requirements apply to reduce the risk of infection.
Scenario C. The number of cases that exceed 100 cases is 100,000. population in 14 days, intensified testing and contact tracing measures, national restrictions apply; Stronger quarantine measures are applied to the most proliferative activities.
Gatherings of people are prohibited, domestic contacts are limited to 2. Caterers could only provide take-out food, and more attention would be paid to shops.
Scenario D. The number of cases that exceed 500 cases is 100,000. population in 14 days, and when the level of infection reaches a level where it is no longer possible to treat COVID-19 patients with the existing healthcare infrastructure and human resources, the most stringent containment measures are required .
The restrictions are the same as for the end of December and the beginning of February.
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