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What does this mean? Is the coronavirus the most terrible delta strain and its most serious consequences? Algis Džiugys, one of the members of the Council of Health Experts convened by Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda, a physicist at the Lithuanian Energy Institute, responded to this on his blog algis-dziugys.blogspot.com.
The specialist recalled that there are three definitions of deaths from COVID-19, according to which Lithuania Statistics provides daily data on morbidity and mortality.
Definition of death 1 means the number of deaths for which doctors identified COVID-19 as the leading cause of death on the death certificate. External causes of death are not included.
2 The definition of death also includes other deaths in which clinicians have reported COVID-19 disease or information related to the primary, immediate, or intermediate cause of death or other significant pathological condition. External causes of death are not included.
3 The definition of death also includes other deaths in which the person died with a positive diagnostic test of no more than four weeks. External causes of death are not included.
“Although the crown data, and especially the number of deaths, is constantly being corrected and supplemented (the most complete publicly available statistics of the crown can be found at Vaidotas Zemlis-Balevičius https://raw.githubusercontent.com/mpiktas/ covid19lt / master / data / lt-covid19-country. csv), but we can already compare the proportion of deaths according to definitions 1 and 2 in the total number of deaths from Covid-19, that is, according to definition 3, “he wrote A. Džiugys.
The researcher provided an image showing that if the deaths during the second and third waves of the coronavirus epidemic were around 50 percent according to the first definition. of all COVID-19-related deaths (indicated by the red curve), account for more than 70 percent of the current wave.
Statistics on Coronavirus Deaths in Lithuania
© Figure by A. Džiugis.
“If these data do not change, it must be assumed that the current wave of the epidemic in Lithuania is more ‘angry’ than the previous ones, that is, compared to deaths from comorbidities and COVID-19 itself, COVID-19 dying now more often than during previous waves of the epidemic, “wrote A. Džiugys.
The physicist added that the reasons for this were not yet clear.
“It is possible that the delta strain of the coronavirus is the culprit, and it is also possible that the number of deaths under the third definition is supplemented at a later date in recently clarified cases.
But in this case, the overall proportion of deaths from COVID-19 will also increase, which is also a threat, as the number of deaths is already quite high compared to the number of infections, around 3%. of the number of infections.
We will therefore observe how events will continue to unfold, “wrote A. Džiugys.
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