Scientist calls for more deaths from coronavirus: long term

The new restrictions won’t stop the increase in deaths for some time.

Data expert Vaidotas Zemlys-Balevičius, who belongs to the President’s Council of Health Experts, wrote this Wednesday on the social network Facebook that we will get another record of deaths, because the number of deaths from COVID-19 is behind detection of new cases.

“After another record death, it is very important to everyone how long it will continue. The answer is long. Deaths lag behind cases. This is a fact and that is why measures to manage the epidemic must be taken as soon as possible. , because the first measures reduce the number of cases and, after a reduction, there is a reduction in deaths. What is the delay depends largely on the mean duration of the disease. It is not yet possible to deduce from the open data in Lithuania, because such data is not open. In the UK, the median from symptoms to death is two weeks, “wrote V. Zemlys-Balevičius.

Currently, according to the expert, it is known from the data when a specific case of coronavirus was registered and if this person recovered or died. Comparing the number of deaths by the date of registration of death and the number of deaths by the date of the case, it is possible to see how the number of deaths lags behind the number of diseases.

“Looking at the graph, we see that 2-4 weeks is the delay. Let me remind you: at the end of November, the 7-day average number of cases was about 1,800. Today it is 2,700. So, if the number of deaths increases as much as the number of cases, we should see around 45 deaths per day in two weeks if we take the average of 7 days. Now it is 30. Since the daily deaths fluctuate, it is possible to speak of 60-70 deaths per day, – wrote V. Zemlys-Balevičius.

– And all this, if the number of cases stops rising today, what really will not happen. This is a simple prediction when looking at historical trends. I see no reason why this should not happen, because death is simply a feature of this disease. It is possible to improve the situation with better health work, better capture of the sick, but all this will no longer affect the deaths that must occur according to the old unaltered process.

V. Zemlys-Balevičius also said when we could expect fewer deaths.

“The number of deaths begins to decrease two weeks after the number of new infections decreases. From the decrease in new cases, when the 7-day average falls, we have to deduct 2 weeks and then we will see an arrest growth in deaths. Sometimes it is faster, sometimes slower. However, it usually happens that when the peak of new diseases explodes and begins to decrease, deaths begin to decrease after a week or two, “said the expert.

If restrictions are met, better results can be expected in January

The Delfi data expert commented that if Lithuanians follow quarantine restrictions in an exemplary manner, the number of new cases should start to decline as early as the first half of January. However, we should not have high hopes that we will already be living a normal life in the second half of January.

“You have to remember that we have ordered very few vaccines, which means that now there will not be enough for everyone. All they will do is allow the health system and care facilities to function normally. But the pandemic management measures should be in place for another half year for sure. It would be very good if morbidity decreased in January. But it’s up to all of us to stick to the restrictions. If we continue, the cases, as in other countries, will fall ”, said the interlocutor.

The interlocutor also points out that there is currently a significant increase in excess deaths compared to last year. Excess deaths are calculated relatively simply by looking at deaths in the same period last year and comparing how many there were before and now.

According to V. Zemlis-Balevičius, we are now in such a bad situation because the necessary measures were not taken in time.

“It often happens that when the epidemic in a country reaches its peak, measures are taken and the numbers go down. And we took action too late and now we haven’t reached the peak, it’s still unclear when the number will start to drop. As a result, the number of deaths is increasing ”, said the interlocutor.