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Russia’s federal statistical office notes that last year’s decline was due to restrictive measures imposed by the coronavirus pandemic and falling demand for energy resources.
In turn, Chief Economist of Luminor Bank Ž. Mauricas pointed out that the better-than-expected GDP result was also affected by the fall in imports.
“How the GDP is calculated: domestic consumption, investment and exports are added, imports are discounted,” he said. – However, Russia’s GDP has contracted relatively little, since it depends less on the activities most affected by the pandemic, that is, leisure services, travel, tourism, restaurants, hotels. Furthermore, quarantine restrictions in Russia have been relaxed. “
By comparison, GDP in the euro area fell by 6.8% in 2020, in the United States by 3.5%, in Lithuania by 1.3% and in China by 2.3%.
Was overlooked
Ž. Maurice drew attention to nominal GDP per capita.
“According to him, Russia has fallen below the world average. It is such a symbolic and unpleasant change. This means that they can no longer say that there are rich countries or countries richer than average.” China has also been a great but poor partner. for a long time, and now it has changed, “said the economist.
According to the International Monetary Fund in 2021, Russia’s nominal GDP per capita is $ 11,654 and China’s is $ 11,819. For comparison, in Lithuania the figure is $ 22,245, in Ukraine – $ 3,984.
The IMF forecasts 3.8 percent for Russia. GDP growth this year. Izgorodin, an economist at SME Finance, said the recovery could be quite fast, but that no long-term miracles are expected.
“Looking ahead to this year, it seems that the pace of recovery may be quite fast at first. There is certainly a possibility that the prices of raw materials exported by Russia will rise very quickly.
The next point is that Russia has applied virtually no quarantine measures since the beginning of this year and the economy is running freely. They are currently going through a period that threatens Europe in the summer. It’s such euphoric consumption when people miss stores, cinemas, restaurants, and just point at money. What he couldn’t buy last year, he’s doing now, “he said.
However, according to Izgorodin, this will not last long.
“First, I think the recovery in commodity prices will be very wavy. It will not be the case that the prices of metals, wood and other commodities just go up. I would say that growth should stop at the end of the summer. , in the fall.
Second, people’s purchasing power is quite limited. Russia has implemented a small economic stimulus plan, so there is no situation like in Lithuania or Europe where people have saved millions and billions of money. Consequently, recovery in consumption may be short-lived and should return to normal thereafter.
Third, in the long term, I don’t see any source that can guarantee a faster economic recovery. The geopolitical situation continues to be complicated, probably one or another sanction will be in force for some time, ”said the interlocutor.
Sigismund Mauricas
The world is changing
Russia’s economy depends on exports of oil, gas, and other hydrocarbons. They are estimated to represent about 60 percent. export value and about 40 percent. state budget revenue.
Izgorodin speculated that the Russian economy could not adapt in time to the changes that are maturing in Europe. For example, last week the European Parliament reached an agreement on a European climate law that would reduce carbon emissions by 55% by 2030 compared to 1990, and that the Community should have no effect on the climate by 2050.
“Yes, Europe’s energy plans are really ambitious and you can safely say that progress has been made. On the other hand, very large structural changes that could have a significant impact on Russia’s budget will not reach Europe that quickly,” Izgorodin said.
The economist added that so far most of the changes are seen in the electric car market, and ships or planes, for example, will use oil for many years.
Ž. Maurice considered that the world should reach the peak of oil consumption in the near future.
“It just came to our notice then. If China and the US join the green economy, change can happen quite quickly. The clock is ticking, he said. – Of course, Russia is still spared on gas.
However, the golden age of Russia was around 2010-2013. Back then, other countries were hit hard by the crisis and Russia was less affected, but it is unlikely to return. Its recovery is now likely to be L-shaped and grow to only 5% in 10 years. “
Aleksandras Izgorodinas
Stagnation
According to Rosstat, last year the average salary in Russia increased by 6% to 44.4 thousand. rubles “in hand” (about 490 euros) per month. However, annual inflation also grew rapidly, reaching 5.8 percent in March.
This means that the real income of the country’s population has barely changed over the years. Ž. Maurice said a similar trend should continue in 2021.
“Inflation in Russia is accelerating, the central bank has raised interest rates for the second time. There is not much basis for overall income growth. It may be that some government decisions can boost wage growth in a year or so. another, but basically in terms of euros or dollars, household income has not increased at all since 2012. It has been stagnant for 7 years ”, commented the interlocutor.
For his part, Izgorodin predicted that the purchasing power of the Russian population could even decline this year.
“After the United States announced sanctions on Russian debt securities, there was a certain drop in the ruble. The question is what will happen next, but if the sanctions are in place, the ruble will remain quite volatile.
And if the theory that COVID-19 is somehow renewed in the fall is confirmed, then the Russian ruble will fall again, because that is certainly not good news for the Russian economy, which is based on exports of raw materials. . It is possible that in summer and autumn the purchasing power of the population will even decrease slightly ”, said the economist.
Izgorodin also warned of great distrust in Russia’s announced unemployment rate, which is currently 5.4%.
“I’d say it’s too positive a number to be true,” he told Delphi.
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