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In the last week of October, compared to the beginning of the month, the average weekly flow of the population to commercial chains decreased by 12%, to public transport – 14.6%, to offices – 16.9%, in at that time the flow around residential buildings increased 6.1%. ., shows population mobility statistics compiled by Google.
Alexander Izogorodin, an economist at SME Finance, says the figures mean that trade in October will be worse than in the third quarter.
“The lower population flow towards mass gathering objects and commercial networks means that in October Lithuania’s retail trade indicators will be worse than the positive figures we saw in the entire third quarter of this year,” Izgorodin told BNS.
“The evaluation of this data from Google suggests that the non-food segment, which is directly related to the decrease in consumer traffic to retail chains, will be more affected,” explained the economist.
According to him, the latest data shows that it is already possible to start talking about the Lithuanian business cycle in the form of a W, not a V.
“After the recession in the second quarter and in the third quarter, the Lithuanian economy showed impressive recovery results. However, COVID-19 has returned, and with it the more cautious dynamics of the Lithuanian economy will return in the fourth quarter. this year ”, says A. Izgorodinas.
According to him, with the increased growth in the number of infections in Lithuania and the introduction of universal quarantine from Saturday, the volume of online commerce should accelerate again.
For example, in April, compared to April 2019, online retail sales volume increased by 67 percent. At the end of October, the movement of the population towards retail chains decreased by 34.7% compared to the base period (January 3-February 6), while at the beginning of the month, by 22.6%.
At the beginning of October, the movement of objects in transit (public transport) decreased by 8.9% compared to the base period, and in the last week of October, by 23.4%. – end of May level.
In addition, more and more people are returning to work from home: at the beginning of October, office flow was only 8%. lower than in the base period, and at the end of the month – 24.9 percent. lower and fell to mid-May levels.
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